There is idea behind that, but continuous is not enough.
The variable is all transfers, taxes and benefits T = [all taxes - all benefits] as function of income per person (including children). T starts negative (benefits are negative taxes).
Goal: monotonously increasing effective marginal T rate.
The productivity paradox (also the Solow computer paradox) is the business process analysis observation that, as more investment is made in information technology, worker productivity may go down instead of up. This observation has been firmly supported with empirical evidence from the 1970s to the early 1990s.
Before investment in IT became widespread, the expected return on investment in terms of productivity was 3-4%. This average rate developed from the mechanization/automation of the farm and factory sectors. With IT though, the normal return on investment was only 1% from the 1970s to the early 1990s.
Always visualize first. Human 'eyballing' is a good pattern detector.
Linear correlation is just one pattern the data can have.
Unfortunately many social science publications have reviewers who know only the basics and can't judge or accept statistically valid analysis that is outside their competence. Fit it into line or nothing.
>Third, Glen Weyl-style economic arguments have convinced me that, in the presence of superlinear returns to scale, the optimal policy is actually NOT Rothbard/Mises-style strict property rights. Rather, the optimal policy does involve some nonzero amount of more actively pushing projects to be more open than they otherwise would be.
(read the rest of his reasoning for this philosophical shift).
Many European countries have /the principle of the prohibition of enrichment/ within the law of damages. The injured party should receive compensation for the actual loss or damage suffered, but should not end up financially better off. The goal is to make the victim whole. Damages are not punitive.
There is separate case in EU against Google that can result severe penalty.
Maximums are high: For severe GDPR violations the penalty can be up to 20 million euros, or up to 4 % of total global turnover of the preceding fiscal year, whichever is higher. For less severe violations fines of up to 10 million euros, or up to 2% of its entire global turnover of the preceding fiscal year, whichever is higher. Turnover is from _undertaking_, meaning every corporation or natural person who is engaged in the activity (you can't avoid penalty with financing or corporate structure).
Damodaran makes detailed analysis with assumptions in the open. Put your numbers to the Exel sheet and calculate valuations using your own numbers.
>Ever since Amazon was in its early days, he has said that Amazon was overvalued and he has always been wrong because Amazon has always found new verticals to build and create more value with.
Amazon has been overvalued multiple times.
Amazon stock had negative return 10 years between 1999 - 2009.
A forecasting system in aircraft autopilot that can accurately forecast when the plane hits the mountain is always wrong.
Forecasting when the forecast depends on the actions of agents that can be informed by the forecast changes the game. If the Fed model forecasts recession and the Fed takes action to prevent it from happening, it changes everything.
Only a forecasting model that is not observed/believed by policy makers can predict without intervention.
Layman's idea of forecasting: Predict what happens in the future.
Economic forecasting: Forecast is input for actions. Predict what happens in the future, using this model, these variables, and everything else stay the same. You can check afterward if the model is an accurate forecaster by removing the changes caused by variables outside the model.
>'Putin isn't Hitler!' 'Trump isn't Hitler!' Wow, congratulations! You
have failed the most basic lesson of learning from history in order
not to repeat it!
>I wrote about this fallacy extensively in Winter is Coming and
elsewhere, but am happy to recap it here. Of course Putin isn't
Hitler, and Donald Trump isn't even Putin—no matter how much he would
like to be. The point is that no one is making comparisons to the
monster Adolf Hitler became in the 1940s. But in the 20s, even for
most of the 30s, Hitler wasn't Hitler either! There could be no more
important lesson to understand than how a race-baiting demagogue came
to power in an educated and liberal country like Germany and how he
transformed that nation into a fascist death machine capable of World
War and unimaginable acts.
The lure of money, where the risk of direct detection remains minimal makes cheating inevitable. Incentives are strongest with chess content creators, such as Hikaru.
Securing direct evidence is a near-impossible task. Direct evidence means, tracing through game statistics and behavioral cues. The evidence should be rock solid before starting to accuse any individual.
This is a systemic problem. While Kramnik and Carlsen might be right, their approach poisons the game deeper.
Perhaps a better tactic would be to abstain from naming culprits. Instead, they could have provided anonymized statistical evidence and explained their methodologies. Public consensus before naming the names could have been a plausible.
Systemic problem requires systemic solutions. Top players might have to play significant amount of their games in secure "SCIF" under observation, or something, to keep playing.
Incentives are the force behind almost everything.
"Well, I think I’ve been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I’ve underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther." -- Charlie Munger
Letter signing looks like a masterful use of the bandwagon effect. Quickly reframing the issue, going to attack, and creating a sense of outrage and hurry. People start quickly pressuring each other because there is a need to be unity for the scheme to work and no time to think.
> Within hours, messages dismissed the board as illegitimate and decried Altman’s firing as a coup by OpenAI co-founder and chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, according to the people.
>people identified as current OpenAI employees also described facing intense peer pressure to sign the mass-resignation letter.
>“Half the company had signed between the hours of 2 and 3am,”
5. Conflicts of interest overlooked or unaddressed
6. Innovation like no other company
7. Goodness in some areas atones for evil in others
from "The Seven Signs of Ethical Collapse: How to Spot Moral Meltdowns in Companies Before It's Too Late", 2005 by Marianne M. Jennings, professor of legal and ethical studies in business in the Department of Management in the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona
I agree. Mythical Man Month is a book to read. It's clear, interesting, and has better writing than summaries.
Many classics like this are so good because the author is among the first to observe new phenomena. They can write down what they have learned without cultural narratives that distort reality.
The hardest lesson in the book is the chapter 11 "Plan to Throw One Away". I have never seen this not to be the case in large systems. You must design the system to be rewritten. Accepting this is still a taboo.
> In most projects, the first system built is barely usable. It may
be too slow, too big, awkward to use, or all three. There is no
alternative but to start again, smarting but smarter, and build a
redesigned version in which these problems are solved. The discard and redesign may be done in one lump, or it may be done
piece-by-piece. But all large-system experience shows that it will
be done.2 Where a new system concept or new technology is used,
one has to build a system to throw away, for even the best planning is not so omniscient as to get it right the first time.
>The management question, therefore, is not whether to build
a pilot system and throw it away. You will do that. The only
question is whether to plan in advance to build a throwaway, or
to promise to deliver the throwaway to customers. Seen this way,
the answer is much clearer. Delivering that throwaway to custom-
ers buys time, but it does so only at the cost of agony for the user,
distraction for the builders while they do the redesign, and a bad
reputation for the product that the best redesign will find hard to
live down.
"Intelligence & character of the masses are incomparably lower than the intelligence and character of the individuals."
During the lifetime of Einstein, successful and educated mimicked the values of upper classes, even if they just pretended. After the WWII the middle class values took over. Today even upper class pretends to be middle class. Try to appear busy and productive. The "character" and intelligence have little to do with each another.
The variable is all transfers, taxes and benefits T = [all taxes - all benefits] as function of income per person (including children). T starts negative (benefits are negative taxes).
Goal: monotonously increasing effective marginal T rate.