Electric Cars Threaten the Heart of Germany’s Economy(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
Electric Cars Threaten the Heart of Germany’s Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/31/business/electric-cars-germany-economy.html
316 コメント
The Germany car industry should have seen the writing on the wall a few years back - when Merkel was forced to intervene to water down the European Commission's proposed emissions regulations - and disrupted itself, and if it had, it might have put them in a better position now. But even that would I think have been just forestalling the inevitable: the barriers to entry to the car industry seem to me to be lower than ever before, to the extent that even Vietnam - somewhere that was previously considered a 'developing' country - has its own home-grown electric car manufacturer, and I'm betting it's a lot cheaper to make cars in Vietnam than it is in Germany.
There are a lot of cliche comments here about Dieselgate and German manufacturers vs Tesla. The threat isn’t Tesla, Tesla will do very well but isn’t going to take over the world, it’s that manufacturing EVs doesn’t need a lot of the established supply chain, and doesn’t need the same level of employment. Mercedes, VW, BMW etc will be fine, but a lot of their specialised suppliers will go bust, and a lot of jobs will be lost.
So how about, in 2020, you make a car that's as good as the 2012 Model S?
It's absolutely bonkers that the car manufacturers are still playing catch up to a car that's almost a decade old at this point.
Tesla are on their fifth model, third complete rework, and the 'traditional' manufacturers still have their dick in hand.
Take a bog standard sedan, put a 200-300 mile range battery in it, sell it for the battery cost more than the ICE version, scrap the ICE line before the government forces you to, job done.
This is going to be the car industry's collective Kodak moment if they don't pull out soon.
It's absolutely bonkers that the car manufacturers are still playing catch up to a car that's almost a decade old at this point.
Tesla are on their fifth model, third complete rework, and the 'traditional' manufacturers still have their dick in hand.
Take a bog standard sedan, put a 200-300 mile range battery in it, sell it for the battery cost more than the ICE version, scrap the ICE line before the government forces you to, job done.
This is going to be the car industry's collective Kodak moment if they don't pull out soon.
Meanwhile in Italy they are building lithium battery factories and working on converting diesel buses to electric. The infrastructure shift will be huge and new companies will need to raise to tackle that. For instance, Tourin has circa 800 buses for public transport today - you cannot charge all of them at the same time now as there is no infrastructure and not enough power in the grid. I somehow think that if even Italy is embracing electric as the “next thing” while Germany automakers still firmly hold their heads in the sand then it could be a pretty bad blow for Germany in the coming decade. Amazingly enough all of this could still be avoided if German automotive companies accept for once that the world is changing, will they though.
* http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/Vrooom-La-prima-fabbr...
* http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/Vrooom-La-prima-fabbr...
Not just the German economy. Much of the traditional US and Japanese car (and truck) industry is at risk too. Complacency leading to a lack of R&D is enabling new comers to ship products and establish themselves. Toyota, Mazda, BMW, Chrysler, etc. have in common that they don't seem to have plans to mass produce EVs in a market where Tesla is taking the #1 position in several key markets. It's not a given that any of them will survive while their market shares crumble, typically starting with the most lucrative segments. The supply industries around them are suffering a similar fate.
A lot of entrenched industries that make billions of dollars are being challenged, and will almost certainly have to drastically change or outright end if we have any hope of slowing climate change.
I suspect those earning billions are going to fight tooth and nail to do everything in their power to stop that happening.
I suspect those earning billions are going to fight tooth and nail to do everything in their power to stop that happening.
I would love to have an electric car but beside nearby trips (office, some grocery) I also drive say twice a year for vacation.
I just checked the way from home (western suburb of Paris) to a ski resort (Val Thorens)
2 x 40 min stops, on the same way as all of the region driving to ski with me.
This is simply impossible, I spend maybe 4 minutes at the pump, there are 10 of them at the station.
To have the equivalent in electric chargers, there should be 40 or 50 of them, with a nuclear plant nearby to bring in the amperes.
By then if batteries are 3 times the capacity and 10 times the charging speed, this will be competitive to fuel. Otherwise it stays as a second car solution, for regional (local) trips
I just checked the way from home (western suburb of Paris) to a ski resort (Val Thorens)
2 x 40 min stops, on the same way as all of the region driving to ski with me.
This is simply impossible, I spend maybe 4 minutes at the pump, there are 10 of them at the station.
To have the equivalent in electric chargers, there should be 40 or 50 of them, with a nuclear plant nearby to bring in the amperes.
By then if batteries are 3 times the capacity and 10 times the charging speed, this will be competitive to fuel. Otherwise it stays as a second car solution, for regional (local) trips
Within Europe it's the UK that looks weakest right now. Domestic sales and exports have both plummeted despite the pound dropping. The new trade deal between Europe and Japan lessons the need for Japanese manufacturers to have European plants. Honda have already announced they are leaving. Even the prestige manufacturers are struggling.
It was funny to see some colleagues that moved from here to Germany to work on automotive industry, and almost overnight started to defend "stopgap" alternatives like hydrogen ICEs... IMHO the biggest advantage of an electric car is the 10x gain on mechanical simplicity, I don't care if it costs the same to own and operate.
Side note: Mercedes owned a 10% stake in Tesla early on and had an electric B-class with a Tesla power train briefly.
"threaten", as if it was a bad thing.
The world desperately need energy-efficient, sustainable public transport and cities designed around it.
The electric car will not save us. Trains and bicycles might.
The world desperately need energy-efficient, sustainable public transport and cities designed around it.
The electric car will not save us. Trains and bicycles might.
It's hard to replace such a manufacturing oriented work culture in any country, especially one revolving around cars in general. I think Germany will be fine, it's still early.
European EV cars don't compare to Tesla
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSjYra7cYqY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSjYra7cYqY
Electric cars accelerated some trends already in motion: The simplicity of electric cars dropped the last few barriers to *horizonalization." As with PCs and smartphones, all players have access to all parts. Vertically integrated players like Apple and Samsung retain some advantages, but are constantly challenged at every horizontal layer by specialist suppliers.
There are about three dozen car manufacturers in China. They will thrive in a horizontalized car business.
There are about three dozen car manufacturers in China. They will thrive in a horizontalized car business.
The whole point of technology is to make processes more efficient. This in turn drives down prices and increases productivity.
If it takes fewer people and factories to make a more sustainable vehicle, so be it.
This is also the force that propels long-term economic growth (as long as the political system continues to support it). To fight it, and make the auto-industry less competitive, is good for Germany in the short run but the last thing they should do in a long-term horizon.
If it takes fewer people and factories to make a more sustainable vehicle, so be it.
This is also the force that propels long-term economic growth (as long as the political system continues to support it). To fight it, and make the auto-industry less competitive, is good for Germany in the short run but the last thing they should do in a long-term horizon.
Last I checked the German car industry was doing fine. Detroit however looks more and more like a scene from some apocalyptic movie. And then there is Japan.
it's not electric cars that threatens German economy, it's delocalization to cheaper countries.
worldwide sales are sustained thanks to strong growth in China that offset other region contractions.
most brands have models ready to jump on the electric bandwagon anyway so the brand themselves aren't really threatened.
it's just plain old greed
worldwide sales are sustained thanks to strong growth in China that offset other region contractions.
most brands have models ready to jump on the electric bandwagon anyway so the brand themselves aren't really threatened.
it's just plain old greed
> “There is a transition toward more electric vehicles that have far fewer components and are easier to manufacture,” Bernhard Mattes, the president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, said in an interview in Berlin. “Therefore, we can expect less employment.”
Any major leap in efficiency eliminates jobs. It causes turbulence as people have to shift jobs or even industries, but it's not really a reason to not do something and it typically works out in the long run.
Any major leap in efficiency eliminates jobs. It causes turbulence as people have to shift jobs or even industries, but it's not really a reason to not do something and it typically works out in the long run.
German exports cars, cars and cars https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/113918565976628019...
Won’t be any economy left if the planet is made uninhabitable. It’s like the most sacred thing is profit, not anything about the people that create it. Very odd train of thought.
None of the German car manufacturers actually made any worthwhile EVs, and it always seemed like they're making EVs just to satisfy EU lawmakers.
Meanwhile across the ocean, a company with essentially no production line history is able to completely destroy century old companies because they got complacent.
German car manufacturers deserve everything coming to them