Turkey unveils first fully domestically-produced car in $3.7B bet on electric(reuters.com)
reuters.com
Turkey unveils first fully domestically-produced car in $3.7B bet on electric
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-autos/new-turkish-electric-car-project-investment-seen-at-3-7-billion-idUSKBN1YV09E
209 コメント
> - Turkey is the perfect size for a relatively beefy electric car battery to make through in one charge, effectively removing the range anxiety.
I would also like to buy one 2.000 km battery. Where are they sold and what are they made of?
> - Lastly, Turkey has been building cars for the past 35 years and it’s gotten pretty good at it - many of the entry to mid level marques of European conglomerates are built in Turkish factories. This is an entry into luxury segment, it is not an entry into car manufacturing. That knowledge of being able to build safe and solid European cars already exists in there. If you’ve visited Europe, you likely already ridden a Turkish-made car (taxis) and if you live in Europe, chances are you might own one without knowing.
Having been working for large OEMs (Bosch/Continental - the primary components such as brakes, infotainments, sensors, etc., essentially the Legos that all "completely different" marques use to put their cars together, regardless whether being an EV/ICE/flying saucer/whatever), I cannot see how being a manufacture for a foreign car brand helps in any way in building your own car.
Have you ever been in a car factory? It is full of bio-robots. Go here, press this button, put the torque wrench on this until it makes "wrrrrr" and that's it. Yes, you save pennies on low-skilled labor to staff your factory, but you need a complete different skillset to start producing your own car. I'm not familiar with what is actually being done in Turkey, maybe they have some awesome R&D, but using an argument like "everybody has already driven a Turkey-made car" is like saying "country X can start its own space program, because major LEO launch paths go over that country, so every rocket has flown through there"...
No offense to Turkey, I'm from a (different) country where many foreign brands assemble their cars too, and it is just that, trained assemblers, not at all helpful at launching your own brand/model.
I would also like to buy one 2.000 km battery. Where are they sold and what are they made of?
> - Lastly, Turkey has been building cars for the past 35 years and it’s gotten pretty good at it - many of the entry to mid level marques of European conglomerates are built in Turkish factories. This is an entry into luxury segment, it is not an entry into car manufacturing. That knowledge of being able to build safe and solid European cars already exists in there. If you’ve visited Europe, you likely already ridden a Turkish-made car (taxis) and if you live in Europe, chances are you might own one without knowing.
Having been working for large OEMs (Bosch/Continental - the primary components such as brakes, infotainments, sensors, etc., essentially the Legos that all "completely different" marques use to put their cars together, regardless whether being an EV/ICE/flying saucer/whatever), I cannot see how being a manufacture for a foreign car brand helps in any way in building your own car.
Have you ever been in a car factory? It is full of bio-robots. Go here, press this button, put the torque wrench on this until it makes "wrrrrr" and that's it. Yes, you save pennies on low-skilled labor to staff your factory, but you need a complete different skillset to start producing your own car. I'm not familiar with what is actually being done in Turkey, maybe they have some awesome R&D, but using an argument like "everybody has already driven a Turkey-made car" is like saying "country X can start its own space program, because major LEO launch paths go over that country, so every rocket has flown through there"...
No offense to Turkey, I'm from a (different) country where many foreign brands assemble their cars too, and it is just that, trained assemblers, not at all helpful at launching your own brand/model.
Are you saying that there is no advantage to having experience in designing and operating a car factory? The stories about Tesla seem to provide arguments both for and against that idea. They made choices for speed and efficiency that no other manufacturer would have tried. Those tradeoffs seem to have paid off so far, but not without some significant cost. It seems plausible that a car maker starting from scratch might make a simple, dumb mistake, that totally compromises the reliability of the car.
> Are you saying that there is no advantage to having experience in designing and operating a car factory?
The point is that they don't design the factory, and at best they operate in the sense that they are cogs in the machine.
The presence of a car industry does help because when VW launches a plant, that jump-starts demand for some sub-components to be built domestically as well, and that opportunity tends to open the door to some domestic initiatives. But that's it. VW cars are still designed by VW, VW engineers still come at the VW plant to instruct how VW products are assembled, and once sub components or components or even the finished product is assembled then VW's logistic chain picks up again.
At best the existence of a car industry helps out by giving a nationalist leader a set of sub-components built domestically to pick and choose to assemble their domestic product,but that's far from the challenge.
Let's put it differently: look at Tesla. The US has a car industry. Was Tesla's challenge to put their cars out of the factory floor an easy one?
The point is that they don't design the factory, and at best they operate in the sense that they are cogs in the machine.
The presence of a car industry does help because when VW launches a plant, that jump-starts demand for some sub-components to be built domestically as well, and that opportunity tends to open the door to some domestic initiatives. But that's it. VW cars are still designed by VW, VW engineers still come at the VW plant to instruct how VW products are assembled, and once sub components or components or even the finished product is assembled then VW's logistic chain picks up again.
At best the existence of a car industry helps out by giving a nationalist leader a set of sub-components built domestically to pick and choose to assemble their domestic product,but that's far from the challenge.
Let's put it differently: look at Tesla. The US has a car industry. Was Tesla's challenge to put their cars out of the factory floor an easy one?
> With the current very low, out of whack exchange rate (1USD:6TRY) this will also become competitive in at least Southern European markets fairly fast as well.
That depends on how it will fare in the crash tests.
here is some more video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLCJpE0OMfQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv4bYn-JitA
One comment on that last video:
"The country owes $ 500 billion to the outside world. It is a bit of a dream to give 22 billion Turkish liras and establish the factory of such a car and put it into mass production. Not very convincing. Because such games are played by the government in our country for years. They issue a new domestic car before each election. Whenever we launch a new vehicle, we know that there is an early election in the near future."
Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOGG
"The first two prototypes were produced in Italy by Pininfarina. The car manufacturing plant will be in Gemlik, Bursa."
That depends on how it will fare in the crash tests.
here is some more video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLCJpE0OMfQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv4bYn-JitA
One comment on that last video:
"The country owes $ 500 billion to the outside world. It is a bit of a dream to give 22 billion Turkish liras and establish the factory of such a car and put it into mass production. Not very convincing. Because such games are played by the government in our country for years. They issue a new domestic car before each election. Whenever we launch a new vehicle, we know that there is an early election in the near future."
Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOGG
"The first two prototypes were produced in Italy by Pininfarina. The car manufacturing plant will be in Gemlik, Bursa."
Turkey and Europe uses the same crash tests and those tests are done in Europe, not in Turkey. In other words, if a car is safe to be sold in Italy, it’s safe to be sold in Turkey. If not, it’s not sellable in either. Turkey does not have its own crash crash testing rating system and legislates based on European tests.
The comment you’ve copied from YouTube demonstrates a lack of basic understanding of economics. Turkey’s debt load is typical of a country its size and furthermore debt itself is not a bad thing, it is a financial tool like any other. I do agree with the political aspects mentioned, however, the fact that it is also a political tool doesn’t necessarily mean it’s actually not being built.
The comment you’ve copied from YouTube demonstrates a lack of basic understanding of economics. Turkey’s debt load is typical of a country its size and furthermore debt itself is not a bad thing, it is a financial tool like any other. I do agree with the political aspects mentioned, however, the fact that it is also a political tool doesn’t necessarily mean it’s actually not being built.
And surely they've factored in all the crash tests costs into the equation. I'd be surprised if didn't already have vehicles being shipped over and in the testing queue for the markets they want to be in. That's typically specked out in the design phase. The only manufactures who don't put much effort into that are the supercar designers.
They don't have a factory yet. There are exactly as many prototypes - prototypes, not pre-production runs - as you see in those videos from what I gather because they are super expensive to make, hence the lack of variation in the cars displayed.
So far we have a couple of pre-production cars, I'll believe it when I see them rolling around here, Turkey has serious problems and the PR value of this is high enough that I can see this as a marketing piece rather than as a vehicle that is ready to be produced.
One tell tale here is that the factor apparently does not exist yet, if they were serious about production then you'd expect the factory to be ready to go at the moment of introduction, the way other car manufacturers - even small ones - do it.
One tell tale here is that the factor apparently does not exist yet, if they were serious about production then you'd expect the factory to be ready to go at the moment of introduction, the way other car manufacturers - even small ones - do it.
I agree with you that I would not personally launch it at this stage, but again, Tesla does launches at a similar state as well. The launch date smells like Erdogan said ‘come hell or high water, we’re announcing this in 2019’. This feels the same as the very early and half built opening of the new Istanbul Airport. The guy has a fixation with dates and likely this was a compromise.
Turkey does have its problems, but this announcement is far too small to make any meaningful dent in them, so I would expect this is mostly domestic posturing for the 2023 election cycle. The earlier they can ship and sell at a reasonable price, the better it is for their election odds.
That said, the airport is getting better, and considering making a car is well within Turkey’s manufacturing capabilities, I don’t see a reason why it would be a stretch.
(I certainly wouldn’t buy one for the first 10 years though.)
Turkey does have its problems, but this announcement is far too small to make any meaningful dent in them, so I would expect this is mostly domestic posturing for the 2023 election cycle. The earlier they can ship and sell at a reasonable price, the better it is for their election odds.
That said, the airport is getting better, and considering making a car is well within Turkey’s manufacturing capabilities, I don’t see a reason why it would be a stretch.
(I certainly wouldn’t buy one for the first 10 years though.)
You know they are in the middle of a debt crisis, right? The issue with Turkey specifically is that they borrowed a ton of EUR, they borrowed a ton of USD, they don't earn much of either, and the currency has halved in three years or so...oh, and they can't raise rates because the President thinks that high rates are part of a Jewish-led conspiracy to bankrupt Turkey...you really can't make this stuff up.
Your last comment about "the President thinks that high rates are part of a Jewish-led conspiracy to bankrupt Turkey" would benefit greatly from a reference or a quote, otherwise it is just as a good as propaganda. The apparent and most obvious reason for a president to not increase interests rates and to not decrease spending is the fear of recession. This is a controversial move but it has some interesting precedents: check the case of Malaysia after the Asian financial crisis of 1997.
Unfortunately he is correct, if poorly worded. I’m failing to find any sources in English right now on my phone, but he really did say this a couple years ago, pretty much word by word.
That does not always imply that the Turkish Central Bank is doing it because of his reasons, but Erdogan is remarkably like Netanyahu in that he knows well what is going to work on his audience, and at that time, this did.
That does not always imply that the Turkish Central Bank is doing it because of his reasons, but Erdogan is remarkably like Netanyahu in that he knows well what is going to work on his audience, and at that time, this did.
Aside from the politics I agree raising rates would be good for foreign debt holders and bad to Turkey internally. Lower rates keeps exports high and jobs remain when employment is full start raising rates.
The lira is inflating out of control and you think high rates are bad for Turkey internally...
sigh
sigh
Wut? If you raise rates, then the price of bonds falls...if you hold debt, you want lower rates because you can then sell your bond at a higher price (theoretically, these are foreign-currency bonds so it isn't quite that simple).
And Turkey needs higher rates. The rate has been far below the natural rate for way too long. In capital markets, you saw Turkish companies make all these crazy acquisitions (in addition, to being forced by the govt into splashy infrastructure projects in areas that supported the govt)...the bust from this will be incredible (the only leverage Turkey has is that French/German banks are neck deep in this debt). Lowering rates is just prolonging the inevitable (the majority of Turkey's corporate sector is already functionally insolvent).
And Turkey needs higher rates. The rate has been far below the natural rate for way too long. In capital markets, you saw Turkish companies make all these crazy acquisitions (in addition, to being forced by the govt into splashy infrastructure projects in areas that supported the govt)...the bust from this will be incredible (the only leverage Turkey has is that French/German banks are neck deep in this debt). Lowering rates is just prolonging the inevitable (the majority of Turkey's corporate sector is already functionally insolvent).
>Turkey’s debt load is typical of a country its size and furthermore debt itself is not a bad thing, it is a financial tool like any other.
It's a tool for Turkey because they control their own currency, which gives them an advantage over potential European manufacturers who are tied to the Euro and have much less flexibility.
It's a tool for Turkey because they control their own currency, which gives them an advantage over potential European manufacturers who are tied to the Euro and have much less flexibility.
[deleted]
Can you elaborate on how debt is a tool please
That old adage: If you owe the bank a million, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $2.5 billion, you own the bank.
You can only lend money to people (or States) you see as equals. Large scale lending essentially ties your economies together (like the US and China).
I highly recommend Debt: The First 5,000 Years by David Grabber. He does a great deep dive into the history of debt (both personal and with States). It's an amazing read.
You can only lend money to people (or States) you see as equals. Large scale lending essentially ties your economies together (like the US and China).
I highly recommend Debt: The First 5,000 Years by David Grabber. He does a great deep dive into the history of debt (both personal and with States). It's an amazing read.
> You can only lend money to people (or States) you see as equals. Large scale lending essentially ties your economies together (like the US and China).
Debt can also be a thinly disguised bribe if there’s no real expectation that it’s ever going to be paid back. That’s how most lending to extremely poor countries works. The US or other “donors” lend money to the local tyrant to support domestically unpopular policy; the local tyrant pockets a large amount, distributes some to their cronies and some goes on the titular reason for the aid and at some point in the future the debt gets written off. Then the cycle repeats. The US does not view any other states as equals. China has lent a lot of money to Sri Lanka and Cambodia among others. It does not view either as an equal.
> I highly recommend Debt: The First 5,000 Years by David Grabber. He does a great deep dive into the history of debt (both personal and with States). It's an amazing read.
It’s also riddled with factual errors, from saying Apple was founded by engineers working on their ok laptops or that the Fed isn’t part of the USG, among many, many others.
Long post on a small selection of the ways the book gets things wrong.
https://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2013/01/the-very-last-david-g...
Debt can also be a thinly disguised bribe if there’s no real expectation that it’s ever going to be paid back. That’s how most lending to extremely poor countries works. The US or other “donors” lend money to the local tyrant to support domestically unpopular policy; the local tyrant pockets a large amount, distributes some to their cronies and some goes on the titular reason for the aid and at some point in the future the debt gets written off. Then the cycle repeats. The US does not view any other states as equals. China has lent a lot of money to Sri Lanka and Cambodia among others. It does not view either as an equal.
> I highly recommend Debt: The First 5,000 Years by David Grabber. He does a great deep dive into the history of debt (both personal and with States). It's an amazing read.
It’s also riddled with factual errors, from saying Apple was founded by engineers working on their ok laptops or that the Fed isn’t part of the USG, among many, many others.
Long post on a small selection of the ways the book gets things wrong.
https://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2013/01/the-very-last-david-g...
When I bought my house 20 years ago, it cost me about 20% more than rent, and now about 30% less than market rents.
In ten years, I’ll own it free and clear, a feat that would have been impossible if I was just flushing money down the toilet in rent.
Ditto with national debt. If I borrow a billion dollars and provide health care, education or defend the state, what value am I allowing to be created?
In ten years, I’ll own it free and clear, a feat that would have been impossible if I was just flushing money down the toilet in rent.
Ditto with national debt. If I borrow a billion dollars and provide health care, education or defend the state, what value am I allowing to be created?
You borrow some money, buy a house, do it up, sell it for more, pay off the debt with some left over for your trouble.
That's using debt as a tool to make more money than you could have made if you didn't have access to credit to buy the house.
Or you borrow some money, build a car-factory, sell some cars, pay off the debt, and then have an income stream you couldn't have had without having access to credit to pay to build the car-factory.
That's using debt as a tool to make more money than you could have made if you didn't have access to credit to buy the house.
Or you borrow some money, build a car-factory, sell some cars, pay off the debt, and then have an income stream you couldn't have had without having access to credit to pay to build the car-factory.
Let’s say I have $1m in cash and I want to buy a house worth $1m. I could either buy the house with my cash, or take out a loan to buy the house and invest my cash into another asset.
Almost any investment will produce a greater yield than the interest cost of the mortgage because the mortgage is secured debt. A mortgage might cost 3% while stocks can return 7-10% or more.
In this scenario, taking on the debt even though you don’t need to is financially advantageous most of the time. In this sense debt is a tool.
Debt is also a tool that lets you afford a house that you can’t buy with cash on hand but where your income is easily enough for principal + interest. What’s better: a) saving for 30 years after you start working and buying a house in cash (maybe paying higher rent that whole time?) or b) taking on a mortgage, getting your house now (as soon as it’s responsible), and paying it off over 30 years. Most people will choose the latter.
Thus debt is a tool that also allows you to buy things far sooner (in life or business) than you could afford to with cash.
There are other things that can be done with debt like borrowing against existing assets (to avoid having to liquidate the entire asset just to get a little cash) or borrowing against expected revenue streams and so on. Most of these tools permit greater economic growth than is possible without.
Almost any investment will produce a greater yield than the interest cost of the mortgage because the mortgage is secured debt. A mortgage might cost 3% while stocks can return 7-10% or more.
In this scenario, taking on the debt even though you don’t need to is financially advantageous most of the time. In this sense debt is a tool.
Debt is also a tool that lets you afford a house that you can’t buy with cash on hand but where your income is easily enough for principal + interest. What’s better: a) saving for 30 years after you start working and buying a house in cash (maybe paying higher rent that whole time?) or b) taking on a mortgage, getting your house now (as soon as it’s responsible), and paying it off over 30 years. Most people will choose the latter.
Thus debt is a tool that also allows you to buy things far sooner (in life or business) than you could afford to with cash.
There are other things that can be done with debt like borrowing against existing assets (to avoid having to liquidate the entire asset just to get a little cash) or borrowing against expected revenue streams and so on. Most of these tools permit greater economic growth than is possible without.
Depending on where you live the situation may be on reverse. You may have a €100k mortgage at ~7% and be unable to get a better investment from your local banking system for the same amount of cash.
First, 22 billion Turkish lira investment coming from local billionaires/companies according to newspapers, not from states pocket.
The biggest problem of Turkish economy is the lack of gasoline and imported cars. The country pay $20B for gasoline and 76% of the gasoline consumed for cars (remaining percentage for airline and sea vehicles). They import over 500M cars every year. Probably $30B to $40B goes to imported cars (it would be over $100B including taxes)
These issues, makes the negative trade gap in the balance sheet.
Overall, seems producing electric car will help a lot for Turkish economy, and Turkey might pay it's debt very short period by this step.
The biggest problem of Turkish economy is the lack of gasoline and imported cars. The country pay $20B for gasoline and 76% of the gasoline consumed for cars (remaining percentage for airline and sea vehicles). They import over 500M cars every year. Probably $30B to $40B goes to imported cars (it would be over $100B including taxes)
These issues, makes the negative trade gap in the balance sheet.
Overall, seems producing electric car will help a lot for Turkish economy, and Turkey might pay it's debt very short period by this step.
I can't edit this post anymore, please remove "000" for each number you see here related to imported car stats, gasoline numbers are correct.
There is a huge difference between being the country someone else manufactures their cars in, and doing your own. Even if they are requiring IP-transferring joint ventures like the Chinese do, it will still take a long time for them to develop their own brands to export quality. The Japanese has a distinct advantage in that they didn’t go the joint venture route and developed their own brands directly.
And that route is pretty much closed today. If you want to go and re-do the Japanese path starting with motorcycles and then working your way up through simple cars and then more and more luxurious and complex versions then today's 'simple' car is much more complex than the simple cars that Japan started out with. The barrier to entry is much higher than it was in the 50's and the 60's, this goes for any manufacturer. Witness the amount of crap leveled at Tesla for fit-and-finish when none of that would have even been a footnote for a new car launch several decades ago.
Just for a reminder of how bad it really was: at the end of the British Leyland body assembly line men with large hammers would whack the doors from below to make them close properly. Body panels were simply not made to the same standard that they are today and people didn't care that much about such stuff.
Just for a reminder of how bad it really was: at the end of the British Leyland body assembly line men with large hammers would whack the doors from below to make them close properly. Body panels were simply not made to the same standard that they are today and people didn't care that much about such stuff.
There is argument that it's easier to build car now than in 60ies because car parts manufacturing was decentralized in 90ies. In 60ies vertically integrated car companies dominated market and you could not buy car parts at any price if those companies did not want to sell them to you. Now most parts are produced by third parties (that often used to be part of fully integrated car company like Delphi Technologies) and you can build modern car like legos, outsource pretty much everything and only do final assembly. Still not easy (30k+ parts in every car) but doable.
It’s a bit interesting in that because Chinese factories rely a lot more on human labor and less on automation, quality suffers significantly. A Toyota, Audi, or Honda simply isn’t the same level of car in the mainland as it is elsewhere.
Interesting, this is the first time I came across this. Do you have source that factories operated by Toyota, Audi, Honda etc. in China are different in operation by design from their home countries?
They are all done by 49/51 JVs, so it isn’t Toyota making the cars, it is GAC Toyota. My observations are all anecdotal and shared by Chinese colleagues when I was working in China. They are starting aggressive programs to automate (e.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/business/a-robot-revoluti...) and quality should improve over time.
Note that it doesn’t really bother most people because while the defect rate is higher, the mechanics to fix those problems are cheaper as well.
Note that it doesn’t really bother most people because while the defect rate is higher, the mechanics to fix those problems are cheaper as well.
>at the end of the British Leyland body assembly line men with large hammers would whack the doors from below to make them close properly.
Not that your point about inherent complexity doesn't stand but having to whack body panels to make them fit just means the dies are at the end of their lives. They certainly would have fit without mechanical persuasion when the dies were new. The hood of any late 90s International S-series is a good example of this.
Not that your point about inherent complexity doesn't stand but having to whack body panels to make them fit just means the dies are at the end of their lives. They certainly would have fit without mechanical persuasion when the dies were new. The hood of any late 90s International S-series is a good example of this.
There is a reason why almost all British car companies went out of business.
Yeah, but using sheet sheet metal dies that were on death's doorstep wasn't it. Plenty of other companies did that back in the day.
If Turkey intends to sell domestic cars at lower taxes than imported / ones manufactured by foreign companies in Turkey, then it can expect repercussions in its free trade deals with other countries.
Not that Erdogan couldn't have such arrogant ideas, but it's not going to fly like that.
Also, I don't get that idea about Turkey being perfect size for making through its area with an electric car. Turkey is not a small country, Istanbul-Ankara is 450 km, Ankara-Gaziantep is 700 km, and that's not yet even close to "through" the country. Not that this is necessarily so relevant.
Not that Erdogan couldn't have such arrogant ideas, but it's not going to fly like that.
Also, I don't get that idea about Turkey being perfect size for making through its area with an electric car. Turkey is not a small country, Istanbul-Ankara is 450 km, Ankara-Gaziantep is 700 km, and that's not yet even close to "through" the country. Not that this is necessarily so relevant.
Turkey has two population clusters, one in the western side of the country along the Istanbul - Ankara - Izmir triangle, whose population is largely Turkish and connected to Europe. The second, much poorer population cluster (1/3 the size of the first) is in the Kurdish-dominated southeast whose economy is based on its interaction with the Middle East. As long as you don’t jump clusters you’re very well within the range of this car, which seems to have a 300mi range in theory. It remains to be seen how this will work in reality, but on paper it sounds plausible.
Not sure if you can call southeast Kurdish-dominated. Adana, Gaziantep & Mersin are the largest cities there, neither is Kurdish-dominated.
Anyway, even within western side, İstanbul — Antalya is ~700km, and İzmir — Ankara is ~600km, both over 300mi (~500km).
Anyway, even within western side, İstanbul — Antalya is ~700km, and İzmir — Ankara is ~600km, both over 300mi (~500km).
They don't have to do anything special. Once it's made in their country, import duties a will not be applied, just like it works everywhere else.
That is a significant discount on the price.
That is a significant discount on the price.
So far, these are taxes, not tariffs. If they want to charge it to only foreign cars, then they would be tariffs. If they are tariffs, then that will fuck their trade deals, and their domestic car industry. Which they are not in position to suffer.
I think GP is saying that other countries will charge similar tariffs on imported Turkish cars
Import duties are tariffs. The only way it wouldn’t be a tariff is if it applied to domestic cars as well.
Right, they can not lower taxes depends on manufacturer. But they can choose another way.
Like: - Government banks can provide 0 interest (5 years term) credit only for local car. - remove all taxes for 0 emission only with some spesifications like between 200-300 HP cars only to block Tesla (whatever).
Similar tricks already applying by all governments around globe.
I do not think any foreign company like Tesla will change his spec just to sell their cars in Turkey.
Like: - Government banks can provide 0 interest (5 years term) credit only for local car. - remove all taxes for 0 emission only with some spesifications like between 200-300 HP cars only to block Tesla (whatever).
Similar tricks already applying by all governments around globe.
I do not think any foreign company like Tesla will change his spec just to sell their cars in Turkey.
> - remove all taxes for 0 emission only with some spesifications like between 200-300 HP cars only to block Tesla (whatever).
> Similar tricks already applying by all governments around globe.
> I do not think any foreign company like Tesla will change his spec just to sell their cars in Turkey.
True and false.
Yes, such tricks for circumventing (sometimes outright disadvantageous and stupid) foreign trade agreements are a common thing globally.
At the same time, tuning specs to cater for local tax bands, local driving license restrictions, import taxes, or _these tricks_ is also a common thing, dating back before ECUs with physical chokes etc. And nowadays, it is a bit flip in EV's software to restrict the max output, so why not produce a local market version after a law&marketing department brainstorming and two-week R&D testing.... And nowadays, another two weeks later, instead of traditional physical/chiptuning derestriction, there is a downloadable "unathorized jailbreak" to remove that.
Mind you, cars are a 20.000+ USD things. Put on low incentive and nobody cares. Put on high enough incentive and labor-intensive things become lucrative - such as assembling the car completely, disassembling the car again, shipping parts by train, reassembling the cars and bam, local car. If you can disassemble and reassemble it cheaper than 10.000 USD import tax, you have net gain (this was really done in some parts of Europe!). And you can flip bits cheaper than 10 USD and you sell.
> I do not think any foreign company like Tesla will change his spec just to sell their cars in Turkey.
True and false.
Yes, such tricks for circumventing (sometimes outright disadvantageous and stupid) foreign trade agreements are a common thing globally.
At the same time, tuning specs to cater for local tax bands, local driving license restrictions, import taxes, or _these tricks_ is also a common thing, dating back before ECUs with physical chokes etc. And nowadays, it is a bit flip in EV's software to restrict the max output, so why not produce a local market version after a law&marketing department brainstorming and two-week R&D testing.... And nowadays, another two weeks later, instead of traditional physical/chiptuning derestriction, there is a downloadable "unathorized jailbreak" to remove that.
Mind you, cars are a 20.000+ USD things. Put on low incentive and nobody cares. Put on high enough incentive and labor-intensive things become lucrative - such as assembling the car completely, disassembling the car again, shipping parts by train, reassembling the cars and bam, local car. If you can disassemble and reassemble it cheaper than 10.000 USD import tax, you have net gain (this was really done in some parts of Europe!). And you can flip bits cheaper than 10 USD and you sell.
Depends!
Might work for some countries (like banana republic) but I do not think it would be valid case for Turkey. It is not about assembling/disassembling or where the factory is. Toyota, Renault, Honda, Isuzu, Hundai, Ford already producing (yes factories planted) in Turkey but consumers pay custom tax.
They can drop "income tax" for TOGG manufacturer, while others pay income tax.
Like, Amazon, Google does not pay their taxes fully while many others pay.
We are not talking about VAT or custom, it is income tax that government takes some percentage from the profit of the TOGG. Then, TOGG can sell their cars cheaper even though there is Tax and VAT.
If they really want to make price advantage for TOGG, they will find a way to achieve their goal.
Might work for some countries (like banana republic) but I do not think it would be valid case for Turkey. It is not about assembling/disassembling or where the factory is. Toyota, Renault, Honda, Isuzu, Hundai, Ford already producing (yes factories planted) in Turkey but consumers pay custom tax.
They can drop "income tax" for TOGG manufacturer, while others pay income tax.
Like, Amazon, Google does not pay their taxes fully while many others pay.
We are not talking about VAT or custom, it is income tax that government takes some percentage from the profit of the TOGG. Then, TOGG can sell their cars cheaper even though there is Tax and VAT.
If they really want to make price advantage for TOGG, they will find a way to achieve their goal.
They can make a price advantage for TOGG, but if they do it via taxes, tariffs or subsidies, they will cripple all the other manufacturing in the country.
Because car industries are expecting a downturn in the coming years, this would be a strong indicator to international manufacturers for deciding where to cut production.
Because car industries are expecting a downturn in the coming years, this would be a strong indicator to international manufacturers for deciding where to cut production.
They are already closing their factories (or reducing capacity) in many countries. I know Honda will close by 2021 in England and Turkey.
May be, Turkish government preparing for this.
"What if they close their factories one day" is the question in their mind?
Whatever the case is, it is a good news for everybody. I believe every country must build their own technology to compete others.
May be, Turkish government preparing for this.
"What if they close their factories one day" is the question in their mind?
Whatever the case is, it is a good news for everybody. I believe every country must build their own technology to compete others.
"Turkey is not a small country, Istanbul-Ankara is 450 km, Ankara-Gaziantep is 700 km, and that's not yet even close to "through" the country. "
Also, lots of mountains.
Also, lots of mountains.
> If Turkey intends to sell domestic cars at lower taxes than imported / ones manufactured by foreign companies in Turkey, then it can expect repercussions in its free trade deals with other countries
Who would adjudicate such a dispute? The WTO can no longer hear appeals on trade disputes, because there is only one judge left. Three judges are required to hear cases.
There are normally seven judges, but the US under Bush and Obama used its power to slow down appointments to replace judges whose terms expired, and under Trump to completely stop such replacements. Earlier this month, the terms of two of the remaining three expired.
Who would adjudicate such a dispute? The WTO can no longer hear appeals on trade disputes, because there is only one judge left. Three judges are required to hear cases.
There are normally seven judges, but the US under Bush and Obama used its power to slow down appointments to replace judges whose terms expired, and under Trump to completely stop such replacements. Earlier this month, the terms of two of the remaining three expired.
If there's no abjudication, then there is just retaliation. I.e. other countries will apply punitive tariffs to Turkish (car) imports.
Good luck producing an entirely new car model for domestic consumption only. Even when country is as big as Turkey, it will not be able to compete in scale, because in automobile industry, scale is very important.
Good luck producing an entirely new car model for domestic consumption only. Even when country is as big as Turkey, it will not be able to compete in scale, because in automobile industry, scale is very important.
Turkey high tariffs on imported cars is a response for sanctions/high tariffs imposed on the country's products.
I went to Turkey in 2010. Drove about 2500km around the country. One thing that stood out to me was the amount of work going into making really epic stretches of highways.
I was driving on 6+ lane highways that were so new, there wasn't even stripes on the roads. It is neat to understand now that they were also building the infrastructure to support these cars.
I was driving on 6+ lane highways that were so new, there wasn't even stripes on the roads. It is neat to understand now that they were also building the infrastructure to support these cars.
Where are they getting the batteries?
Electric cars are an extremely simple, mature technology that is decades old. Building one isn't hard. The real trick is high volume production of high capacity lithium ion batteries, and the associated pack technology. This is why the Europeans are still massively behind Japan, Korea, and the US (Tesla) with EVs. They can't get enough cells to manufacture cars in high enough volume to be profitable, because they are simply buying them from LG Chem and Panasonic.
If Turkey isn't investing billions into battery production, then the whole endeavor is a pointless prestige project.
Electric cars are an extremely simple, mature technology that is decades old. Building one isn't hard. The real trick is high volume production of high capacity lithium ion batteries, and the associated pack technology. This is why the Europeans are still massively behind Japan, Korea, and the US (Tesla) with EVs. They can't get enough cells to manufacture cars in high enough volume to be profitable, because they are simply buying them from LG Chem and Panasonic.
If Turkey isn't investing billions into battery production, then the whole endeavor is a pointless prestige project.
Zorlu Enerji (It's a well known Turkish energy company as well as part of the TOGG) already invested 4.5 billion USD to build up a battery factory together with Chinese GSR Capital.
It was some years ago IIRC
It was some years ago IIRC
https://www.dailysabah.com/technology/2018/02/27/turkeys-zor...
As with Tesla's Panasonic partnership the huge Chinese investment in battery tech defines who really steers these early days attempts at mass market EV's
Don't really understand the point about autarky. Sure you can build all the wheel yourself but historically that haven't made competitive industry, rather, it made horribly inefficient state owned enteprise and produced extremely poor product. And it's not like global battery supply is monopolized - you can get battery packs from Panasonic, BYD or LG Chem, and it will be both cheaper and better than whatever Turkey can come up in a few year.
I'll believe it when I see it but I'd not be very surprised if they pull this off. Turkey has been able to pull off lots of giant infrastructure projects like the new Airport, Metros, Highways, Bridges, etc...
I think the government is very functional from that aspect.
I think the government is very functional from that aspect.
Just came back from Turkey and have to agree. The new airport is excellent and they are currently building a new metro to/from airport. I was surprised at how well run some of the government services are. Just wish more people spoke English.
I crossed Turkey years ago (back in 2005-6) from Georgia all the way to Istanbul. Even then, they had very impressive freeways crossing very difficult terrain, that must have costa fortune to build and maintain.
The company will build a generic charging infrastructure in return to state support it gets. This way people can see advantages of electric vehicles. We expect a huge impact on fossil fuel dependency.
I'm shocked it never occured to me that big countries were impeding EV growth .. interesting note.
I’ve always thought this is quite similar to the wireless service. Smaller, densely populated European countries (compared to the size of the US) can much more quickly deliver new technologies at a much cheaper cost compared to the US, which has to basically cover half a continent of sparsely populated towns of several hundred people 50 miles across and a gaping nothing in between. As a result, cell service is 5-10x cheaper for the same amount of LTE data in Turkey compared to the US. For example, the last time I was there, 15gb LTE was about $7 pre-paid.
The same kind of penetration efficiency is in play when you’re trying to bootstrap a whole new infrastructure network like electric car charging stations.
The same kind of penetration efficiency is in play when you’re trying to bootstrap a whole new infrastructure network like electric car charging stations.
Communication infrastructure is more of a "US did bad" scenario than an "other countries did good" one.
US policy people were tied down to various abstract philosophical/economic ideas (and their refutations) which made comms, especially cellular services generally more expensive than other places. Coarse theory and such.
It's partly cyclical. Following the antitrust actions (Bell etc), the US had a great Telecom market. In the 90s, compared to almost any other country, US telecom service was amazing. Most other countries were highly ideological about "key industries" like telecommunications and it resulted in a mess.
In the cellular/broadband age, the situation reversed. Turkey is more of the "norm." US is the outlier.
US policy people were tied down to various abstract philosophical/economic ideas (and their refutations) which made comms, especially cellular services generally more expensive than other places. Coarse theory and such.
It's partly cyclical. Following the antitrust actions (Bell etc), the US had a great Telecom market. In the 90s, compared to almost any other country, US telecom service was amazing. Most other countries were highly ideological about "key industries" like telecommunications and it resulted in a mess.
In the cellular/broadband age, the situation reversed. Turkey is more of the "norm." US is the outlier.
The problem I see is the taxes themselves. If they are making purchase and use of vehicles p prohibitively expensive, they are too high and are inhibiting growth and quality of life. Other car companies probably already reach a higher cost-quality balance than Turkey will get. There's something to be said for the economic stimulus of home grown industry, but you can also get a lot of that by working with a big manufacturer on a custom design built for & in your own country.
> they are too high and are inhibiting growth and quality of life
If they are making cars more expensive, they are improving quality of life. Less death, less pollution, less huge cost of extra traffic and roads and hospitals.
Turkey has a fantastic bus system with very comfortable buses more like airplanes (they have a host to bring tea, and have tv's in every chair).
If they are making cars more expensive, they are improving quality of life. Less death, less pollution, less huge cost of extra traffic and roads and hospitals.
Turkey has a fantastic bus system with very comfortable buses more like airplanes (they have a host to bring tea, and have tv's in every chair).
> If they are making cars more expensive, they are improving quality of life. Less death, less pollution, less huge cost of extra traffic and roads and hospitals.
That's assuming that they're bringing the expense of cars more in line with their true cost including negative externalities. Once they're increasing the expense beyond that, it's a net QoL decrease.
That's assuming that they're bringing the expense of cars more in line with their true cost including negative externalities. Once they're increasing the expense beyond that, it's a net QoL decrease.
I'd rather prefer to have WC on a bus than tea. I did appreciate electric outlets though.
Can you clarify your point about making it through Turkey on one charge. It’s around 1,000 miles wide so I’m not sure I understand.
Don't you need a rich economy for advanced products to be successful and profitable?
Or a pretty yawning wealth disparity that Erdogan has created for his supporters. BMW and Porsche sell plenty of cars in Turkey, even with the obnoxious taxes mentioned above.
In a more neutral way of phrasing it, per-person Turkish GDP PPP is now higher than Greece and closing in on Italy. (https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/gdp-per-capita-ppp)
Without commenting on who holds it, there’s plenty of wealth there.
In a more neutral way of phrasing it, per-person Turkish GDP PPP is now higher than Greece and closing in on Italy. (https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/gdp-per-capita-ppp)
Without commenting on who holds it, there’s plenty of wealth there.
Does PPP matter for that particular comparison? I'd have assumed that BMW and Porsche prices are fairly PPP-agnostic.
But a domestic car production would be all about PPP.
Besides, thos8 id a long term project, we should be considering 10-20 year trends.
Besides, thos8 id a long term project, we should be considering 10-20 year trends.
They are a pretty rich economy, despite Erdogans best efforts to botch it.
This is ad hominem at it best. Please check the Turkey's economic statistics before and after Erdogan is in charged of Istanbul and Turkey, before you slander the person.
Erdogan is a corrupt fascist and a war criminal (most recently: killing civilians in Syria). But I agree: the coming economic crash is the least offensive consequence of his regime.
Since 2003 when erdogan came to power, the turkish economy grew 4 or 5X. There are lost of areas to criticize when it comes to erdogan, but the economy really ain't it.
As I said, despite his actions. It’s not like putting 100k political opponents in prison is a boost to the economy. (And to teleforce, ad hominem? Really? Someone is hot for autocrats. That is how you do an ad hominem.)
I have found it strange that most of the people even in HN did not realise that economic achievement is largely orthogonal to the political nature of the country e.g. the autocratic, monarchy or dictatorship. I think I don't need to provide you the modern example of this scenario and most of ancient empires have achieved economic miracles despite the autocratic/monarchy/dictatorship nature of the government. Having said that, Turkey is a democratic country with many legits political parties, it is neither autrocatic, monarchy or dictator.
And in true democratic fashion Turkey jails political opponents. “But they were terrorists”. How convenient. Go protest the war and see how “not autocratic” Turkey is.
Erdogan survived an attempted coup. Attempt a coup in Germany or France and see how fast those democracies get "autocratic".
Talk about muddying the waters. (It's not even clear where the coup came from, how it played out was surreal.) And even if a coup was attempted in Germany or France, people would not be arrested in the tens of thousands the next day. Curfew? Yes. Incidents where civilians were killed by mistake or in crossfire? If the coup was large - likely yes. War is not pretty.
A concerted effort to round up and imprison tens of thousands of people from all walks of life overnight? No.
It's almost like the coup played in Erdogans hands. I don't know what was behind the coup. It was clearly ill advised in every way. It's evidently clear Erdogan took the coup as his cue to further repress and imprison people he doesn't like.
Like the dictator he is. Unfortunately, the peoples of Turkey will pay the price.
A concerted effort to round up and imprison tens of thousands of people from all walks of life overnight? No.
It's almost like the coup played in Erdogans hands. I don't know what was behind the coup. It was clearly ill advised in every way. It's evidently clear Erdogan took the coup as his cue to further repress and imprison people he doesn't like.
Like the dictator he is. Unfortunately, the peoples of Turkey will pay the price.
> It's almost like the coup played in Erdogans hands.
FALSE.
I ain't defending anybody but If one try a coup he would not bombard his own home by a helicopter full of heavy guns.
All the citizens were suffering of these people who made the coup since 1990's as far as I read. They are hiring their members to critical positions like governor, judge etc and they do mobbing on others to quit, that's how they take over almost all the country.
Which ever main stream media you are following obviously managing a perception propaganda.
And those people who made the coup & escaped Turkey, doing this perception propaganda sice they have very good friends in mainstrem media like NY Times, Independent, The Guardian, german welt, etc.
You can't find those propaganda in Russia/China media, Russia found CIA ties with these terrorists who made the coup and never let them open their school in Russia.
Their schools operated over 100 countries (they were eye of the CIA according to claim) before the coup.
There is no example of this organisation in history, hard to believe but looks so true.
BTW, no opposition party member in jail as long as no ties with any terrorist organisation.
FALSE.
I ain't defending anybody but If one try a coup he would not bombard his own home by a helicopter full of heavy guns.
All the citizens were suffering of these people who made the coup since 1990's as far as I read. They are hiring their members to critical positions like governor, judge etc and they do mobbing on others to quit, that's how they take over almost all the country.
Which ever main stream media you are following obviously managing a perception propaganda.
And those people who made the coup & escaped Turkey, doing this perception propaganda sice they have very good friends in mainstrem media like NY Times, Independent, The Guardian, german welt, etc.
You can't find those propaganda in Russia/China media, Russia found CIA ties with these terrorists who made the coup and never let them open their school in Russia.
Their schools operated over 100 countries (they were eye of the CIA according to claim) before the coup.
There is no example of this organisation in history, hard to believe but looks so true.
BTW, no opposition party member in jail as long as no ties with any terrorist organisation.
Economic growth alone is not relevant, what matters is how much there would have been with another system in comparison. A much harder question.
That's an un-answerable question, we can't even predict what economy will do next year
> As I said, despite his actions.
And I said since 2003. Before the coup attempt ( in 2016 ), his actions boosted turkey economy 5X. It has slipped since the coup attempt but that's to be expected. Political stability is required for economy prosperity.
> It’s not like putting 100k political opponents in prison is a boost to the economy.
What should he do with coup plotters? Throw them a parade?
And I said since 2003. Before the coup attempt ( in 2016 ), his actions boosted turkey economy 5X. It has slipped since the coup attempt but that's to be expected. Political stability is required for economy prosperity.
> It’s not like putting 100k political opponents in prison is a boost to the economy.
What should he do with coup plotters? Throw them a parade?
Do you really believe he found 100k coup plotters overnight.
The intelligence service watching over them last years, but "the organisation" had members even among the intelligence service members.
See more: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21932211
See more: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21932211
What's the electric grid situation in turkey? Can it sustain substantial car loads, and would this work outside big cities?
Disclaimer: not an expert.
It does have a decent, modern baseline grid running at 220v (EU standard). This is more amenable to EV than US 110v, but otherwise insignificant. A nontrivial portion of the base demand is supplied by hydroelectric dams, thus renewable, some old coal plants as generators of last resort, largely being replaced by natural gas plants for environmental and efficiency reasons. A new nuclear plant is going online in the next few years in Sinop.
I don’t think load created by EVs would make a significant difference. It’s a developed country connected into the European grid, if it can’t generate it’ll buy from its neighbours and sell to its citizens at a premium.
It does have a decent, modern baseline grid running at 220v (EU standard). This is more amenable to EV than US 110v, but otherwise insignificant. A nontrivial portion of the base demand is supplied by hydroelectric dams, thus renewable, some old coal plants as generators of last resort, largely being replaced by natural gas plants for environmental and efficiency reasons. A new nuclear plant is going online in the next few years in Sinop.
I don’t think load created by EVs would make a significant difference. It’s a developed country connected into the European grid, if it can’t generate it’ll buy from its neighbours and sell to its citizens at a premium.
Nitpick: EU standard for tension is 230V (used to be 220V)
My apologies, you are correct. Turkey is also 230V it appears. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/World_Ma...
There's a lot more information and photos here:
https://www.motor1.com/news/390036/turkey-togg-csuv-ev-autom...
> Customers can choose from two different lithium-ion battery setups. The smaller option promises 186 miles while the larger pack should crack 300 miles per charge.
> TOGG says the rear-drive model can hit 62 miles per hour in 7.6 seconds. The dual-motor SUV will do the deed in 4.8 seconds.
> Customers can choose from two different lithium-ion battery setups. The smaller option promises 186 miles while the larger pack should crack 300 miles per charge.
> TOGG says the rear-drive model can hit 62 miles per hour in 7.6 seconds. The dual-motor SUV will do the deed in 4.8 seconds.
Interesting to see so many new entrants to the car manufacturing market. I guess internal combustion manufacturing was so dominated by the big boys in US-DE-JP that no one really had the muscle/margins to get into the fight at that point. From what I've gleamed, electric motors are a lot simpler (less moving parts).
In the early days of the automobile there were hundreds of manufactures in the US alone IIRC. This seems similar in terms of seeing a lot of folks taking a shot at it.
We're seeing a similar thing in China.
Most of the companies have no chance as they're behind the ball on tech, logistics, etc.
We're seeing a similar thing in China.
Most of the companies have no chance as they're behind the ball on tech, logistics, etc.
Yeah the smart money has really gone into batteries because that's where all the "secret" sauce is. Induction motors are pretty well known at this point. There are companies working on better motors but the expected ROI is rather low and the expected effect on the car overall is low. Advances in batteries in terms of weight or density would be very dramatic because most electric cars are designed around the battery pack.
> Induction motors are pretty well known at this point.
So what about this switched reluctance witchcraft that apparently gives the newer Teslas a significant advantage?
So what about this switched reluctance witchcraft that apparently gives the newer Teslas a significant advantage?
It doesn't. Power to weight of ordinary well done motors is approaching 5kw per kilogram, and top tier ones even passed 10.
Weight of a motor is not an issue for practical considerations for EVs
Weight of a motor is not an issue for practical considerations for EVs
So why do they have a huge Wh/km advantage over rivals such as Porsche? https://www.xautoworld.com/opinion/taycan-201-tesla-range/
Less aggressive regenerative breaking to compensate for cooling deficiency, and less efficient inverter.
Tesla being able to "turn off" front motor, and lack of differential probably also adds a little bit to efficiency.
Tesla being able to "turn off" front motor, and lack of differential probably also adds a little bit to efficiency.
I thought switched reluctance was about cost reduction (with maybe a few percent efficiency increase). Maybe weight too.
It's more efficient than an induction motor. An induction motor has the most torque when it's at rest but then generates its own resistance as it spins up and so loses efficiency. In the dual motor setup, Tesla use both types to get the best of both worlds: induction to accelerate and then it cuts off at some point and uses only the switched reluctance for efficiency.
I lately saw presentation of VW also claiming how EV is several times “simpler” and “less parts”, and then the next slide was that their next gen similar size car is “only” about 2 times more expensive than ICE. 2 times simpler should convert to 2 times cheaper also, or what I miss here? Lithium is so expensive nowadays?
No, lithium price makes very little difference to lithium battery price. All those "industry analysts" from McKinseys and such suggesting it have never set their foot in a battery factory.
The biggest price components of lithium cells is cobalt oxide used in cathode plates, followed by nickel in cell chemistries using them. Both are not cheap at all, and their supply is famously unstable. Metallurgical cobalt goes at $30-40 per kilo in China, and battery grade cobalt oxide at almost the same price.
So for a 200kg battery pack, you will be paying 2000-3000$ only for the cathode material.
Second after this is plainly volumes. Tooling costs are very high. Even model 3 and BAIC EU are rather low volume by industry standards. You have to add to that that EVs don't share chassis/platform with any other high volume car, and thus can't share the bodywork tooling costs.
The biggest price components of lithium cells is cobalt oxide used in cathode plates, followed by nickel in cell chemistries using them. Both are not cheap at all, and their supply is famously unstable. Metallurgical cobalt goes at $30-40 per kilo in China, and battery grade cobalt oxide at almost the same price.
So for a 200kg battery pack, you will be paying 2000-3000$ only for the cathode material.
Second after this is plainly volumes. Tooling costs are very high. Even model 3 and BAIC EU are rather low volume by industry standards. You have to add to that that EVs don't share chassis/platform with any other high volume car, and thus can't share the bodywork tooling costs.
We start to see platform sharing between thermal and electric. E.g. Peugeot new e-208 have very high part commonality with regular 208.
Certainly more copper in an EV compared to an ICE vehicle, and the batteries more expensive as well, I presume.
I know Tesla's use electric brake calipers as oppose to the normal hydraulic ones, not sure if other manufacturers are doing the same.
Since the electric motor is so much smaller than an engine/transmission combo they'd have to rearrange most of the front end crumple zones.
Add to that the cost of x5-10 software and UI devs.
> Add to that the cost of x5-10 software and UI devs
That problem seems to be self-inflicted, though.
That problem seems to be self-inflicted, though.
I'd love to see a Mazda-designed, touchscreen-free EV.
Does there even currently exist a consumer EV without a touchscreen?
Does there even currently exist a consumer EV without a touchscreen?
Bollinger's models, but they're trucks.
And also absurdly expensive, to the point of making Tesla look affordable.
Until Apple or Android can unify car's entire UI it'll be up to the manufacturers or whoever they contract it to.
And who's going to design and build an EV without a touchscreen these days?
And who's going to design and build an EV without a touchscreen these days?
ICE cars don't have a moderately complex subassembly that is repeated thousands of times per car. "Less parts" is only true if you count classes instead of instances (pardon the OOP nomenclature).
It's just not scaled up enough yet.
what you’re missing is that complexity doesn’t correlate to price
Doesn’t it? In very basic level price=cost of input materials+workforce+profit. Amount of needed work is directly correlated to complexity. Therefore with other variables same simpler should mean cheaper. Here some other variables may be not same. Either economy of scale is not in favor yet, standardization and production levels are still low. Or higher profits are taken.
Price is determined by what people will pay, not by the cost to produce something. This is driven by supply and demand, while complexity can reduce the available supply it is not the only factor and for many products it’s not even close to the dominant one.
As well complexity in design doesn’t absolutely correlate to manufacturing costs. Usually that’s dominated by labor, and extremely complex systems are designed to be made with less labor.
As well complexity in design doesn’t absolutely correlate to manufacturing costs. Usually that’s dominated by labor, and extremely complex systems are designed to be made with less labor.
For EV's the cost is about the batteries and manufacturing scaling. I think the cost of battery grade lithium isn't the full story on battery costs. Guestimation on my part is it's around $1000-2000 per car.
A 100 pound bar of gold is 100 times simpler than ICE cars. Guess which one is more expensive?
This is a purely political statement. It is pretty easy to release cars on paper.
A market for political statements has always had a pretty low entrance barrier, all you need is a good PR manager.
A market for political statements has always had a pretty low entrance barrier, all you need is a good PR manager.
Perhaps also the demand for them is large, and the 'big boys' either ignoring or actively hampering their development requires others to step in.
> so many new entrants to the car manufacturing market
Electric cars are easier to make than modern ICE vehicles.
Electric cars are easier to make than modern ICE vehicles.
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Honestly, think they stand a pretty good chance in making it successful, especially considering how good their domestic home appliance capabilities has become. Different things, but atleast the embedded systems/electrical engineering talent is there.
I'm from Turkey, this is just a show for always upcoming elections. Best engineers in Turkey already left the ship, and the remaining is looking for a way out
Hey, I'm a Turk left the ship 6 years ago. Turkey has infinite amount of engineer supply. I'm also sure the remaining can handle this.
An anecdote: All the exceptionally talented engineers that I know already left the country (That is like 5 of my friends) and found very lucrative jobs on various European countries. Not only that but not so exceptionally talented engineers that I know also managed to leave the country.
Each week I tend to get so many messages on LinkedIn from engineers in Turkey that want to leave the country...
Funny thing is some of these engineers were actually very nationalistic but even they couldn’t take how the ruling party and Erdogan governs Turkey.
So yeah, personally I wouldn’t bet much money on engineers that are currently staying in Turkey.
Each week I tend to get so many messages on LinkedIn from engineers in Turkey that want to leave the country...
Funny thing is some of these engineers were actually very nationalistic but even they couldn’t take how the ruling party and Erdogan governs Turkey.
So yeah, personally I wouldn’t bet much money on engineers that are currently staying in Turkey.
"Turkey has infinite amount of engineer supply"
That seems unlikely.
That seems unlikely.
7000000 country could probably produce more engineering talent than it can utilize. And building everyday cars is somewhat easy compared to the aerospace, weapons, nuclear reactors or big dams/bridges/tunnels - you don't push neither material science nor laws of physics to the limit.
The country can also kill most of their talent psychologically, if not physically and force best to exile, with mix of repressive politics, military, no freedom s etc. There seems to be correlation of freedom in a country and innovation success.
Historically, the correlation you mention seems quite weak. Two of the most oppressive regimes of the 20th century achieved some of the most spectacular technological results.
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Unless you count the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany, which out-engineered the west for decades.
Well I lived in SU for 15 years. There was joke that the Party declared that “in next 5 years we will catch US”. Smarter ones told “lets catch, but no bypass”. “Why not bypass also?” “Then they will see our naked ass”. Totally true. Most of economy was invested to military and this was only area with some world-class tech, and even that was often fake and/or with human sacrifices never published
The SU had a program of requiring world-class mathematicians (Kolmogorov, Arnold, Gelfand), physicists, etc. to teach one year in high school, and to think about the curriculum, and possibly write textbooks. Some of these were available in English via MIR publishers. Some of these books are unique moments in the history of mankind. The science education in SU trickled down throughout eastern europe. Indirectly this school of thought has been responsible for some of the best science and engineering in the world, sadly, mostly outside of the place that originated it.
I lived in Israel when all of the soviet Jews emigrated in the late 80's/early 90's. One of them got a job alongside my dad, who was an engineer, and they went on a business trip to the US together. When he came back, he said that if they "turned off the US and locked the door", it should still take Russia over 100 years to catch up.
However, during the early days of the space race, there was literally nothing the US could do to catch up with the Soviet Union space program. Their best hope was a former Nazi engineer.
However, during the early days of the space race, there was literally nothing the US could do to catch up with the Soviet Union space program. Their best hope was a former Nazi engineer.
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With Germany compare west vs east Germany times. Nazy regine was sure more complicated story.
Regressive fascists don’t tend to reach their potential engineering quality.
Take that number. Subtract all women and Kurds, people who speak critically of the government. Adjust for the academics held as political prisoners and brain drained talent.
That’s your engineering base. You can’t square the engineering circle when your government is actively engaged in repressing the population.
Take that number. Subtract all women and Kurds, people who speak critically of the government. Adjust for the academics held as political prisoners and brain drained talent.
That’s your engineering base. You can’t square the engineering circle when your government is actively engaged in repressing the population.
Why subtract women? I'm quite sure that women participation in engineering studies is higher than in most (all) western nations.
Woman and Kurdish engineers are plenty in Turkey. It could be better sure. The way you say it makes me think you haven't lived in Turkey lately.
German engineers during WWII seems to refute this claim. History shows that talented engineers drafted machines of mass murder with smile, as long as it would fund their departments and I'm sure there were other considerations in their decision to comply as well.
Many world leading scientists fled Germany after 1933: https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.4.2018092...
And 15% of the scientists that we're fired from universities were responsible for 64% of academic citations.
Also, many ways Germany had the inferior war technology and progress: encryption. nuclear. Soviet tanks we're better. Germany didn't have long range bombers. British anti-aircraft systems were better.
And all that from a country that led the world in science and engineering before WWII.
And 15% of the scientists that we're fired from universities were responsible for 64% of academic citations.
Also, many ways Germany had the inferior war technology and progress: encryption. nuclear. Soviet tanks we're better. Germany didn't have long range bombers. British anti-aircraft systems were better.
And all that from a country that led the world in science and engineering before WWII.
"Also, many ways Germany had the inferior war technology and progress: encryption. nuclear. "
But superior in conventional warfare at the beginning of WW2. Stukas, tanks and infanterie well (radio) coordinated.
MG42, the basemodel is still in use as MG3 today
Also later: ME262 (first jet engine), STG44 (first assault rifle), V1 and V2 (rockets)
So given the size, german wartechnology was very advanced.
But it was because this was the sole focus of the ruling nazi party: war tech.
Basic university research is about anything and mostly civilian and the nazis were no academics: they cared about war technology and "scientific" proof, that the aryans are superior. So they did not feel the loss of the fleeing jewish based intellectuals so hard.
"And all that from a country that led the world in science and engineering before WWII."
And this statement is probably more likely true before WWI.
But superior in conventional warfare at the beginning of WW2. Stukas, tanks and infanterie well (radio) coordinated.
MG42, the basemodel is still in use as MG3 today
Also later: ME262 (first jet engine), STG44 (first assault rifle), V1 and V2 (rockets)
So given the size, german wartechnology was very advanced.
But it was because this was the sole focus of the ruling nazi party: war tech.
Basic university research is about anything and mostly civilian and the nazis were no academics: they cared about war technology and "scientific" proof, that the aryans are superior. So they did not feel the loss of the fleeing jewish based intellectuals so hard.
"And all that from a country that led the world in science and engineering before WWII."
And this statement is probably more likely true before WWI.
To the contrary, I'd argue that the expulsion of Jewish academics and their ultimate exodus or execution directly led to the Nazi's failure to develop atomic weapons.
As well there are notable examples of Germans who didn't build weapons "with a smile" for the Nazis, and the usage of slave labor in the war machine harmed their industrial capacity through sabotage.
As well there are notable examples of Germans who didn't build weapons "with a smile" for the Nazis, and the usage of slave labor in the war machine harmed their industrial capacity through sabotage.
Bullshit!
I know Turkey had a Kurdish president as well as many kurdish senators in parliament. Some member of opposition party some members of Erdogan's party.
I know some cities have Arabic people more than Kurdish in east of Turkey.
The problem historical, needs to be closed for the sake of the citizens.
I know Turkey had a Kurdish president as well as many kurdish senators in parliament. Some member of opposition party some members of Erdogan's party.
I know some cities have Arabic people more than Kurdish in east of Turkey.
The problem historical, needs to be closed for the sake of the citizens.
File that under "Not even wrong"
Women in Turkey are allowed to study and participate active in the economy. Ditto with Kurds. The purges of academics were mostly in humanities.
There are a shitload of tensions between the white and black turks, between turks and kurds, erdogan is hardly the most pleasant person in the world and has lots of enemies, with the slowing economy country imploding at some point is not unthinkable, but so far the day to day life in Turkey is chugging along just fine.
Women in Turkey are allowed to study and participate active in the economy. Ditto with Kurds. The purges of academics were mostly in humanities.
There are a shitload of tensions between the white and black turks, between turks and kurds, erdogan is hardly the most pleasant person in the world and has lots of enemies, with the slowing economy country imploding at some point is not unthinkable, but so far the day to day life in Turkey is chugging along just fine.
For now.
That's actually untrue, building a consumer vehicle _profitably_ is much harder than building a nuke or other weapons.
Weapons just need to work, a consumer vehicle need to be cost effective, your 80s style Soviet radas are not going to sell at all despite relative ease of production.
Weapons just need to work, a consumer vehicle need to be cost effective, your 80s style Soviet radas are not going to sell at all despite relative ease of production.
> 7000000 country could probably produce more engineering talent than it can utilize.
South Africa has more than 50,000,000 - still can't build coal power plants without mucking it up. So ... not sure why you think what you think.
South Africa has more than 50,000,000 - still can't build coal power plants without mucking it up. So ... not sure why you think what you think.
7m? I guess most African countries are just choke full of engineers, way more than they can utilize. Of course, having moved to one of these countries, all real construction is done by the Chinese.
With all its engineering mighty it can't even produce quality appliances (BEKO) and we are talking about cars here.As someone commented here, it all looks great on paper but as soon as you start making it, you realise it ain't that easy.
I dont know what you are talking about. Arcelik for example produces much better quality appliances than most its US competitors. But this fact does not fit your narrative I guess.
I'm not an American so couldn't care less about the quality of their manufacturers. On the other hand, I do know that Beko,owned by Arcelik, manufacture pretty poor quality products.
I seriously doubt that... The most expensive set of high quality appliances sold in the U.S. like Thermador and Bosch are manufactured in Turkey.
Turkey has its own home grown aerospace industry that is an order of magnitude complexity than building a CAR [1]. IMHO they will do fine me think.
[1]https://www.tusas.com/en
[1]https://www.tusas.com/en
quantity != quality
I am saying this as a spectator observing politics in the region. I don't want to undermine the PR value of this announcement, but Turkey appears to have capability to pull this off. Now if you said Poland..
So, they (reportedly) commissioned Pininfarina to do the design work, as a "joint design team" with the TOGG folks, but based on the fit/finish of the interior (and the design choices) it kind of looks like Pininfarina did the actual manufacturing of this concept car.
I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but it might be a bit early to call this a "fully homemade car".
I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but it might be a bit early to call this a "fully homemade car".
I have to say I'm shocked to hear that Pininfarina could have designed something so ungainly, dull, and almost ugly.
They're one of the greatest design / coachbuilding companies in automotive history. This just looks like a generic block of soap from a nameless factory.
I wonder what happened.
They're one of the greatest design / coachbuilding companies in automotive history. This just looks like a generic block of soap from a nameless factory.
I wonder what happened.
Sedan looks pretty cool. Elaborate on how the cars look ungainly,dull and ugly please.
Fully homemade means money stays at home. No patents or any other licensed technology can be used to stop them.
The prototypes were indeed made in Italy.
And Pininfarina itself is owned by an Indian conglomerate!
I’m old enough to remember the last “first fully homemade Turkish car”. It was named Imza (Turkish for signature). I don’t remember the specifics but it was total flop with some financial fraud in the mix. Hoping for a better result this time.
There were companies who are selling the same template with different color plate to the customers and lying about they designed from scratch. It seems Italians did the same.
https://www.motor1.com/news/390097/togg-suv-sedan-concept-pi...
https://www.motor1.com/news/390097/togg-suv-sedan-concept-pi...
Pininfarina is a famous Italian company that designs cars for manufacturers.
I know that part, the weird part is they gave Turkish government a predesigned car for another customer.
I've been traveling in Turkey few months ago. Was extremely impressed by the resources this vast country have and by the wealth its citizens (in Istanbul) used to have.
Turkey have healthy infrastructure to develop these kind of industry. I believe that they can afford paying top talents from all over the world to come there and boost this industry
Turkey have healthy infrastructure to develop these kind of industry. I believe that they can afford paying top talents from all over the world to come there and boost this industry
One of the things that technology enables is lower barriers to entry. In the past, you had to be horizontally integrated to make a car. Even Tesla, to some extent is massively horizontally integrated as they are first movers.
Technology enables global supply chains. Electric cars may have fewer moving parts. The result is a "narrower" approach to integration where you can rely on others for important or critical parts.
Assuming they can make this car reliable and cheap - the makers only need to focus on marketing and selling to make it successful.
Technology enables global supply chains. Electric cars may have fewer moving parts. The result is a "narrower" approach to integration where you can rely on others for important or critical parts.
Assuming they can make this car reliable and cheap - the makers only need to focus on marketing and selling to make it successful.
Completely new platform from completely inexperienced vendor, mass produced, with more shiny tech than the major car manufacturers have today combined (lvl 3 AD, augmented reality, V2X, eye tracking, holographic assistant?, etc). All done in 2 years...good luck. No doubt they might get a car out eventually but it wont be the car advertised here and the timeplan is still very optimistic.
Where are they getting the batteries?
Electric cars are an extremely simple, mature technology that is decades old. Building one isn't hard. The real trick is high volume production of high capacity lithium ion batteries, and the associated pack technology. This is why the Europeans are still massively behind Japan, Korea, and the US (Tesla) with EVs. They can't get enough cells to manufacture cars in high enough volume to be profitable, because they are simply buying them from LG Chem and Panasonic.
If Turkey isn't investing billions into battery production, then the whole endeavor is a pointless prestige project.
Electric cars are an extremely simple, mature technology that is decades old. Building one isn't hard. The real trick is high volume production of high capacity lithium ion batteries, and the associated pack technology. This is why the Europeans are still massively behind Japan, Korea, and the US (Tesla) with EVs. They can't get enough cells to manufacture cars in high enough volume to be profitable, because they are simply buying them from LG Chem and Panasonic.
If Turkey isn't investing billions into battery production, then the whole endeavor is a pointless prestige project.
Zorlu Enerji (It's a well known Turkish energy company as well as part of the TOGG) already invested 4.5 billion USD to build up a battery factory together with Chinese GSR Capital.
BTW, It is not new, it was some years ago IIRC.
BTW, It is not new, it was some years ago IIRC.
3.7bn over 13 years? There’s no way that anything will become of this. Of course, that’s not the point. I suspect that exactly one car will ever be made, the car that the despot Erdegon will get to drive in for the cameras.
And well off westerners will praise him for it ... see this thread - just an announcement and everyone is practically falling over themselves to pile on the praise.
So what will german / italian companies do if they see that their "china" (manufacturing base) is making its own brand?
"Elon Musk did it, so...."
On a tangent: Why hasn't Tata (India) tried to enter the American markets? They're a huge shop (they've got a ton of engineering branches just like GE or LG), and I realize a lot of their car production is tied up domestically or to Africa where their industrial their vehicles are big, but surely they've have to had considered selling cars in Europe/the US? They have a US engineering/consulting presence already and even do large scale government contracts (although they require US citizens for those .. which is .. a weird hybrid when you think about it), but we don't see any of their cars in the US.
Tata owns Jaguar Land Rover so they're already in the US and Europe.
Devrim was the first one (and had more style to it), but there were only 4 of them produced:
http://devrimarabasi.com/galeri/big/siyahbeyaz/siyahbeyazdev...
http://devrimarabasi.com/galeri/big/siyahbeyaz/siyahbeyazdev...
http://devrimarabasi.com/galeri/big/siyahbeyaz/siyahbeyazdev...
http://devrimarabasi.com/galeri/big/siyahbeyaz/siyahbeyazdev...
It’s over for combustion engine cars. Bring on electric competition.
I hope one day cars will be the next "tower computer" in that you can buy your motors, shell, seats, OS (and self driving AI), all separately and just put them together. It would be very cool to see companies that just specialize in making different bodies, companies making different frames, but all working with a standardized blueprint.
I think the first iteration of THAT would be a huge boon to the economy.
I think the first iteration of THAT would be a huge boon to the economy.
Who better to provide innovation and challenge Tesla than an autocratic government and a committee of random companies?
You may want to do your own research, not random companies. This gov support model has proven successful with defense companies in TR, they're moving it to the mobility industry for the first time.
[deleted]
I believe Elon Musk deserves credit for inspiring people thousands of miles away.
-Over 100K guaranteed sales
-Free land allocation for 1M m2
-100% tax cut
-Massive interest rate cut for financing
-2 SUVs and 1 Sedan in 2022
-Concept designs were made by
Pininfarina
By today's standards it's a pretty car. I'm way over the Lamborghini style front end scoops but this has much softer lines compared to most right now and it's nice.
he drove it today on live broadcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1Cu4dPNLok
seems surprisingly polished, really curious as to how they pulled this off -- they're making it look easy
Easy, the prototype has been brought from Italy. Nothing has been made yet in Turkey.
May it be unlike Erke Dönergeci, a fraudulent group that attempted to produce a perpertual motion machine.
I don’t understand what about this car is “homemade.” The headline doesn’t make any sense. And if it does, it’s in a paternalistic (maybe racist?) sort of way.
> Erdogan first revealed plans in November 2017 here to launch a car made entirely in Turkey by 2021.
Electric cars are much simpler then conventional combustion engine cars... no transmission needed.
I'm glad that Elon was not successful in putting a transmission in the Tesla car.
Electric cars are much simpler then conventional combustion engine cars... no transmission needed.
I'm glad that Elon was not successful in putting a transmission in the Tesla car.
- Turkey is the perfect size for a relatively beefy electric car battery to make through in one charge, effectively removing the range anxiety.
- This car will likely be immediately competitive in at least the Turkish market because Turkish taxes are crazy on transport. Gasoline is taxed at ~70%, cars are taxed at 68% (50% + 18% VAT). A domestic car will probably avoid the 50% on purchase and a domestic electric car will entirely avoid taxes on gas. Taxes make this a good deal at almost any price the average Turkish consumer can buy.
- With the current very low, out of whack exchange rate (1USD:6TRY) this will also become competitive in at least Southern European markets fairly fast as well.
- Since this is government sponsored they can also do a fairly fast rollout of electric charging stations by offering generous incentives. If that doesn’t work, they have the eminent domain hammer, and they will definitely just build it themselves as part of the electric service.
- This also avoids the heavy industry required to build ICE cars, which has environmental costs. That cause is becoming popular with the electorate as well, exemplified in the stiff backlash against the country’s first nuclear reactor.
- Lastly, Turkey has been building cars for the past 35 years and it’s gotten pretty good at it - many of the entry to mid level marques of European conglomerates are built in Turkish factories. This is an entry into luxury segment, it is not an entry into car manufacturing. That knowledge of being able to build safe and solid European cars already exists in there. If you’ve visited Europe, you likely already ridden a Turkish-made car (taxis) and if you live in Europe, chances are you might own one without knowing.
- As a bonus point, I would say the choice of an Italian designer over a Turkish one bodes well for the effort because somebody actually made a level headed, reasoned call on this and not a nationalistic one.