Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S(earther.com)
earther.com
Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S
https://earther.com/solar-just-hit-a-record-low-price-in-the-u-s-1826830592
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I'm mostly gratified by what a "Dog bites man" story this is. Solar prices have been decreasing steadily for a long time so we should expect to see a story like this every few months until the adoption curve flattens out - which hopefully won't be for a while.
Slightly off topic... Interesting thing about solar in Utah (maybe everywhere? Not sure about the specifics): Utah gives every land owner pollution credits. They're allowed to pollute X units worth per year or something like that. Depending on certain criteria you're allotted a certain amount of credits. The problem is, these credits are transferable. So if I, for example, don't pollute, I can sell my credits off to someone who wants to pollute more than average.
Something (I think is shady) some companies are doing is selling solar for really cheap in dollars, but they subsidize the cost by selling it for credits. Average Joe is going to think he's polluting less, however since he sold off his pollution credits, his solar purchase has authorized someone else to pollute for him. Netting us nothing in the end.
(not an expert, so I may have misunderstandings and be oversimplifying things, but the point should be easy to understand)
Something (I think is shady) some companies are doing is selling solar for really cheap in dollars, but they subsidize the cost by selling it for credits. Average Joe is going to think he's polluting less, however since he sold off his pollution credits, his solar purchase has authorized someone else to pollute for him. Netting us nothing in the end.
(not an expert, so I may have misunderstandings and be oversimplifying things, but the point should be easy to understand)
As a person who's built PV systems: The problem of generating enough kWh in a month is solved. In pallet load and container load quantities, good quality PV panels are now very affordable. Roof and ground mounting systems, DC power wiring and interconnect systems are highly developed, modular and easy to build with relatively unskilled labor.
The problem to be solved now is economical, reliable, long-lasting (in number of cycles) battery storage. Or some other form of storage to draw those kWh back from when the sun is down.
The problem to be solved now is economical, reliable, long-lasting (in number of cycles) battery storage. Or some other form of storage to draw those kWh back from when the sun is down.
Relevant bits:
> “On their face, they’re less than a third the price of building a new coal or natural gas power plant,” Ramez Naam, an energy expert and lecturer at Singularity University, told Earther in an email. “In fact, building these plants is cheaper than just operating an existing coal or natural gas plant.”
> There’s a 30 percent federal investment tax credit for solar projects that helps drive down the cost of this and other solar projects. But Naam said even if you take away that credit, “these bids, un-subsidized, are still cheaper than any new coal or gas plants, and possibly cheaper than operating existing plants.”
(emphasis mine)
> “On their face, they’re less than a third the price of building a new coal or natural gas power plant,” Ramez Naam, an energy expert and lecturer at Singularity University, told Earther in an email. “In fact, building these plants is cheaper than just operating an existing coal or natural gas plant.”
> There’s a 30 percent federal investment tax credit for solar projects that helps drive down the cost of this and other solar projects. But Naam said even if you take away that credit, “these bids, un-subsidized, are still cheaper than any new coal or gas plants, and possibly cheaper than operating existing plants.”
(emphasis mine)
Interesting headlines from the "Presentation PDF" found at [1].
> Installed prices are higher for systems at tax-exempt customer sites than at for-profit commercial sites
> Residential new construction offers significant installed price advantages compared to retrofits
> No clear relationship between installer-level pricing and installer volume
> Prices vary considerably across installers
> Installed prices in the United States are higher than in other national PV markets
> Installed price declines have been partially offset by falling state and utility incentives
> Installed prices continued to fall in 2016, albeit at the slowest rate since 2009 [emphasis mine]
> Module-level power electronics have a seemingly small effect on installed prices
> Ground-mounted non-residential systems are generally higher priced than rooftop systems
[1] https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/tracking-sun-10-installed-p...
> Installed prices are higher for systems at tax-exempt customer sites than at for-profit commercial sites
> Residential new construction offers significant installed price advantages compared to retrofits
> No clear relationship between installer-level pricing and installer volume
> Prices vary considerably across installers
> Installed prices in the United States are higher than in other national PV markets
> Installed price declines have been partially offset by falling state and utility incentives
> Installed prices continued to fall in 2016, albeit at the slowest rate since 2009 [emphasis mine]
> Module-level power electronics have a seemingly small effect on installed prices
> Ground-mounted non-residential systems are generally higher priced than rooftop systems
[1] https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/tracking-sun-10-installed-p...
There is an interesting part about solar generating electricity when its sunny - it will help population move to warmer climes. If you live in Ohio heating in winter is a problem, solar isn't going to keep you warm on a cold night (ok batteries can help but they're expensive). If you live in the South West though its perfect as Winter nights dont require much heat and the biggest loads are AC at the times when there is lots of sun.
Perhaps this will mean living in Southern California, Arizona etc will be increasingly popular as energy costs will be much more affordable. Of course water is the next problem, but cheap electricity can help that too.
Perhaps this will mean living in Southern California, Arizona etc will be increasingly popular as energy costs will be much more affordable. Of course water is the next problem, but cheap electricity can help that too.
My house faces south westish. I have a lot of roof on the back side that I think would be good for solar but all the automated online stuff seem to indicate it was be expensive and not pay off for a LONG while. At least around here in MN there's not a lot of residential push for it. Hopefully as prices drop it becomes more viable.
This is truly good news, but is it really worth calling out that a record was broken when it's been trending down regularly over time?
Note the picture in the article is the Ivanpah concentrated solar thermal power facility in California (near Las Vegas, NV). The article concerns photovoltaic not concentrated solar. I drove by Ivanpah not long ago and it is a site to see, the towers look about as bright as the sun, but my understanding is concentrated solar is not as attractive economically as PV.
Correct me if any of the maths below are wrong.
Eagle Solar Mountain Solar Farm ( 300 MW ) will have an annual production capacity of over 900 million kilowatt hours (kWh) once completed. The Moapa Band of Paiutes has become a national clean energy leader and will host in excess of 600 MW of solar on the 72,000-acre reservation. [1]
For example, the Topaz Solar Farm [3] has an annual production capacity of 1200 million kWh on 25km2. Around ~6200 acre.
This seems an awful a lot of space for low capacity generation? I know it is reserved, but that is like 10x the size difference, why aren't they building more?
US annual electricity consumption is 4,015 billion kilowatt hours in 2017, 60% coming from fossil fuel [2].
For solar energy to replace that 60% energy consumption; 2409 billion kWh, it would require 2000 Topaz Solar Farm, or 50,000 km2, or slightly less the fifth of Nevada area.
The cost of the 300MW Eagle Solar Mountain Solar Farm is roughly $2B, assuming it would cost $3.6B to build the size of Topaz Solar Farm which is 550MW, it would take $7.2 trillion to build a 60% US needed solar farm, ignoring the benefits of Economy of scale, and any improved efficacy of solar panel.
Given all the benefits of Solar, being cheaper then Coal, I am surprise it is still only 1.6% of US electricity generation. Why is that?
[1]https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180531006155/en/8mi...
[2] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm
Eagle Solar Mountain Solar Farm ( 300 MW ) will have an annual production capacity of over 900 million kilowatt hours (kWh) once completed. The Moapa Band of Paiutes has become a national clean energy leader and will host in excess of 600 MW of solar on the 72,000-acre reservation. [1]
For example, the Topaz Solar Farm [3] has an annual production capacity of 1200 million kWh on 25km2. Around ~6200 acre.
This seems an awful a lot of space for low capacity generation? I know it is reserved, but that is like 10x the size difference, why aren't they building more?
US annual electricity consumption is 4,015 billion kilowatt hours in 2017, 60% coming from fossil fuel [2].
For solar energy to replace that 60% energy consumption; 2409 billion kWh, it would require 2000 Topaz Solar Farm, or 50,000 km2, or slightly less the fifth of Nevada area.
The cost of the 300MW Eagle Solar Mountain Solar Farm is roughly $2B, assuming it would cost $3.6B to build the size of Topaz Solar Farm which is 550MW, it would take $7.2 trillion to build a 60% US needed solar farm, ignoring the benefits of Economy of scale, and any improved efficacy of solar panel.
Given all the benefits of Solar, being cheaper then Coal, I am surprise it is still only 1.6% of US electricity generation. Why is that?
[1]https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180531006155/en/8mi...
[2] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm
The internal combustion engine seems to have been milked for all the efficiency our current materials can get out of it, while new materials and economies of scale in solar tech keep pushing prices lower. However, material science could also revolutionize the efficiency of engines and make them cost competitive with solar again. Solar-ification seems to be the trend, but it is not guaranteed.
It is my understanding that we are already past or very near a point of no return w.r.t greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Talk of peak power and renewable excess leads to discussion about the need to store that excess. Could we also expend that energy to do something like scrub CO2? Is this even feasible at a scale that could make a difference?
Q: Where one can check solar energy prices?
I'm of course a supporter of solar, and I don't want to be "that guy", but is there a strategy for handling solar power at night? In these areas that are mostly solar, how do they store the energy, or do they resort to natural gas or coal or something?
Given that solar auction minimum bids have dropped 470% in the last 4 years (in Mexico, https://earther.com/mexico-just-auctioned-off-the-cheapest-s...), isn't it crazy to accept a 25 year flat rate contract?
Every country should invest more into railway and subway infrastructure. Trains are vastly easier to automate, highly energy efficient and have run on electricity for at least a century.
Why even bother with electric self driving cars or trucks when the solution to this problem already exists?
Why even bother with electric self driving cars or trucks when the solution to this problem already exists?
No mining, no drilling, no transportation, no wastes. Huh, I bet that's why solar and wind are cheap.
As a decades-long solar and wind advocate (the term 'renewable' has been spun too much to be useful) I'm sad to say... too bad they made it take so long. And there still isn't nearly enough of it.
As for storage, there are literally dozens of solutions. Yeah, they can be expensive. So's the alternative ... to everybody. (How'd that nuclear thing work out for the Japanese? ... who had centuries of quakes and tsunamis to learn from? ...who have a nearly limitless supply of offshore winds. Ooops.)
As for selling to the power company (they're resistant for multiple reasons ... can see the writing on the wall, and will find ways to cheat you ... sell to your neighbors at cost instead.
This HAS to be the future, kids. The sooner, and the cheaper, the bettter. Time to sell the buggy whips.
As a decades-long solar and wind advocate (the term 'renewable' has been spun too much to be useful) I'm sad to say... too bad they made it take so long. And there still isn't nearly enough of it.
As for storage, there are literally dozens of solutions. Yeah, they can be expensive. So's the alternative ... to everybody. (How'd that nuclear thing work out for the Japanese? ... who had centuries of quakes and tsunamis to learn from? ...who have a nearly limitless supply of offshore winds. Ooops.)
As for selling to the power company (they're resistant for multiple reasons ... can see the writing on the wall, and will find ways to cheat you ... sell to your neighbors at cost instead.
This HAS to be the future, kids. The sooner, and the cheaper, the bettter. Time to sell the buggy whips.
Every time I see a headline like this it makes me think that I should work on some personal DIY projects related to solar to really appreciate the advances. Does anyone have experience or suggestions for cool projects to try?
What happened to all the solar tariffs folks were stressing about?
This gives me hope. We really do have both the technology, and the money, to cut our fossil fuel usage to almost zero, right now- and morally, there is no other choice.
In 2019 to reap the tax credit sunset every battery will fly off the shelf and get a few solar panels in front of it to qualify.
If only we could do long transmission from one half of the earth and vice versa...
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This solution won't work if the sun ceases to emit light, therefore it's not fool proof.
I kid, but - why so much pessimistic "all or nothing" attitude on this?
I kid, but - why so much pessimistic "all or nothing" attitude on this?
I sometimes wonder- if you have a superconducting "pipeline" along the earths rotation direction could those countrys where the sun is still "up" power those where the sun already has set?
Is Warren Buffett’s Nevada holdings still thwarting progress of rooftop solar in the name of profits?
Why is this a surprise? Solar costs have been falling for multiple decades.
NON-SURPRISING HEADLINE: "Falling Costs Are Actually Falling".
The important statistics to pay attention to are the implementations and if the components are recyclable not the cost per megawatt. Increasing renewable energy is important but not if you cannot recycle the components.
NON-SURPRISING HEADLINE: "Falling Costs Are Actually Falling".
The important statistics to pay attention to are the implementations and if the components are recyclable not the cost per megawatt. Increasing renewable energy is important but not if you cannot recycle the components.
I would not trust a source called "earther.com" to tell me good news about solar because they're clearly going to be biased.
When power industry magazines talk about solar being cheap then i'll believe it
When power industry magazines talk about solar being cheap then i'll believe it
The frustrating part about solar is that because the peak generation output doesn't line up with typical peak consumption ("the duck curve"), utilities need natgas peakers, which sit mostly idle, to fill in the gap. As solar installation grows, coal baseload falls behind due to cheap natgas, and nuclear languishes due to huge capex, established baseload capacity will decrease. From now on, new capacity will largely be a mix of natgas CC, natgas CT, solar, and wind. CCs (combined cycle) are most able to serve in baseload/load-following capacity, but if solar and wind are reliable for a particular interconnection, CTs (simple cycle) are cheaper to build, if less efficient to operate.
Much of the strategizing in the future will be about trying to find the right balance of CCs and CTs to complement intermittent and opportunistic (load-ignorant) renewables, while balancing an onslaught of new regulations and activists that will force battery storage as an issue. This is already happening now, well before battery storage is cost-competitive.
Much of the strategizing in the future will be about trying to find the right balance of CCs and CTs to complement intermittent and opportunistic (load-ignorant) renewables, while balancing an onslaught of new regulations and activists that will force battery storage as an issue. This is already happening now, well before battery storage is cost-competitive.
The solar + battery price is also going down, though not as fast as the solar only piece. But that's the metric we should be following. When that hits $30 per MWh, it'll be game over.