$100 absolutely happens especially at peak traffic times going to NJ to get a rental car, drop off for a car pool, etc. Airport is not the issue.
Why use uber if subway gets job done then? I presumably choose a line and route by my destination. Uber totally competes with rail as in subway, light rail, even shorter trips on commuter rail. Agree it does not compete with amtrak.
I have used it in suburbs and I have had totally mixed experiences. Off course Ubwe is better than the status quo cab and mass transit you mentioned. But unless you do not own a car (for whatever reason), odds are that Uber really can't expand into that niche (as largely as was proposed). The only time my friends in the suburbs use Uber is to get between points if they have had a drink (cited in the article).
To your point and the article's point, perhaps Uber can displace the older and smaller transportation infrastructures but you still face the issue of physical space. I can move more people per hour, per mile of track on a train than by car. Roads can only be built so wide and long in a given area -- NYC for example. I have been stuck in Uber plenty of times racking a $100+ charge cause of gridlock -- nothing can be done but add roads but we can't pave water. Other modes like trains can go above, on and below ground and coexist with other systems and you can run them more often and with more cars.
After thinking more about the point of auto ownership, I think the $9k/annum cost of having a car is pretty steep. My dad who is religious about logging mileage and tracking his car's health from engine to windshield wipers likely would agree too. Car makers can and are reducing the cost curve and price points of their offerings. Furthermore, I am sure they're focused on the on-going safety and integrity of their product given the Toyota and GM recalls. If this is $9k, that for sure will be coming down.
If it's truly that cumbersome to maintain a car, what about Uber's cars? Are drivers going to be spending large sums to maintain their vehicles (that likely see more wear and tear given they are cabs)? Who eats those costs... Uber? If not, do they need to pay higher wages or concede some ground to these livery companies to help maintain their fleet?
Just something for us to all noodle about-- nothing like good discussion
Part of this is just Finance 101. Valuation is an art as much as it is a science. Arguing assumptions is exactly what valuation is about-- this does not seem to reveal anything great.
Gurley is obviously a buyer of Uber while Damodaran is not. The lower TAM or penetration numbers could even be written off as conservatism, after all humans are generally more optimistic about future prospects.
Gurley makes a good point on the elasticity of Uber but frankly if I am in a suburb (as most of my close friends and family), you do not use Uber as much given you own a car you paid $30K+ for. In areas like NYC where Uber is used more, there could be higher demand but then you meet a limit- the number of cars on the road... too many causes congestion and people opt for mass transit. I do agree with the napkin sketch but I think there are multiple forces working against Uber away from large metropolitan areas (which is stated as a growth opportunity) including 1) car ownership; 2) infrequent trips -- you generally do a bunch of errands in one shot due to distance; 3) physical space-- how many ubers can there honestly be in a 20-40 mile radius in a lower volume area? Why not go to a nearby city, instead?
Uber is a great service and I use it a lot but I find it hard to see as a car alternative. It is an alternative to existing cabs and mass transit in most areas. It will be interesting to see how it grows and like previously stated, what kind of margins it's drivers are earning... at a certain point you can only drive so much in price drops till they leave for the alternative.
"Appendix"
I even spoke to a yellow cab driver in NYC the other day and he stated that he is rounding up support from the commissioner for help on two things: 1) Green cabs (limited to where they can physically pick up but often times break rules) and 2) Uber.
Another thought-- Since there is all kinds of advice coming out of this which can be confusing / hard to parse, here is a slideshare on raising seed capital. It reflects what almost everyone is saying to focus on product.
If you need funds to help that happen, try an Indiegogo / Kickstarter / etc. This is a serious problem so it could see some interest
While everyone has suggested bootstrapping, friends and fam, local angel groups and Angel List, have you tried your university?
Many large public institutions have launchpads and accelerators (they just don't always market it well). This could be a natural fit for them.
I think like most people are echoing, continue to fund it out of pocket (maybe with the help of family) to get it to be the best product possible. From there, slowly build out into other geographies. You can learn lessons from your early expansions so as to not repeat it. Given the product is still young, there is likely a good amount you can build on prior to scaling out.
Good luck and will def be monitoring University Niche
While everyone has suggested bootstrapping, friends and fam, local angel groups and Angel List, have you tried your university?
Many large public institutions have launchpads and accelerators (they just don't always market it well). This could be a natural fit for them.
I think like most people are echoing, continue to fund it out of pocket (maybe with the help of family) to get it to be the best product possible. From there, slowly build out into other geographies. You can learn lessons from your early expansions so as to not repeat it. Given the product is still young, there is likely a good amount you can build on prior to scaling out.
Good luck and will def be monitoring University Niche