I find it extremely unlikely that MtGox would falsely claim that they suffered a theft due to transaction malleability (a real point of possible error) if the actual issue was a US Government seizure. It just strikes me as utterly unbelievable that they would actively cover up (rather than simply failing to disclose) a government seizure.
It's far, far more likely that Karpales is either grossly incompetent or a thief than it is that he's making up complicated stories to cover up a government action.
Exactly. They'd say something like nothing, rather than making up some false story about malleability-based thefts.
The government theft theory is nonsense.