Rationing, errors and mammogram math(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
Rationing, errors and mammogram math
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/13/magazine/13Fob-wwln-t.html?ref=magazine
2 comments
Wow! Bayesian analysis in the New York Times. Maybe there is hope for this world after all.
I'll start by saying that I'm not trolling.
Using conditional probability, or bayes theorem to calculate a conditional probabilitiy, does not make something bayesian analysis.
I haven't read the original report (it's on my list) but what is presented in this article isn't really anything except probability. It would be bayesian if they put a distribution on the proportion of people that have a "certain cancer."
Using conditional probability, or bayes theorem to calculate a conditional probabilitiy, does not make something bayesian analysis.
I haven't read the original report (it's on my list) but what is presented in this article isn't really anything except probability. It would be bayesian if they put a distribution on the proportion of people that have a "certain cancer."
http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes
He uses the mammogram statistics as an example to explain Bayes' Theorem.
He uses the mammogram statistics as an example to explain Bayes' Theorem.
John Allen Paulos seems to be very intent on increasing the numeric literacy (I think he calls it numeracy) of people in general. Its a laudable goal indeed.
This is the kind of example that we can give to grade school kids and have them work it out. It would be a great "ah ha!" moment for some of them.
This is the kind of example that we can give to grade school kids and have them work it out. It would be a great "ah ha!" moment for some of them.
The mammogram examples are everywhere! Where did it come from?