The Game (Theory) within the Game(theincidentaleconomist.com)
theincidentaleconomist.com
The Game (Theory) within the Game
http://theincidentaleconomist.com/the-game-theory-within-the-game/
4 comments
(a) It is a highly stylized example to illustrate game-theoretic concepts. In a sense I am asking the reader to imagine that THE GAME is about the runner getting to second or not holding all else about the game constant. That's not really baseball, but it is a baseball-like situation.
(b) The situation described is both vague (was the probability referenced by the color commentator for this runner? For this team? For this situation?) and specific (a specific runner/pitcher pair, there are zero outs not two).
(c) You are right about the goal of baseball. I had originally written it with the goal being scoring. But then it is a vastly more complex game.
(b) The situation described is both vague (was the probability referenced by the color commentator for this runner? For this team? For this situation?) and specific (a specific runner/pitcher pair, there are zero outs not two).
(c) You are right about the goal of baseball. I had originally written it with the goal being scoring. But then it is a vastly more complex game.
A very good article. I'm just getting into games now, and seeing lots of small simplified examples like this is exactly what I need to improve my intuitional understanding.
I'll have more on basic game theory, including a post that will explain a relatively painless and fun way to learn the basics. Stay tuned.
In general this is not the right way to use game theory to analyze baseball. The relevant goal isn't getting to second base, it's winning the game, with a good proxy of scoring runs. If you successfully steal with no outs you are much more likely to score a run than you are if you advance later when there are two outs. So getting to second is a bad proxy for scoring runs.