Daring Fireball: Android Opportunity Addenda(daringfireball.net)
daringfireball.net
Daring Fireball: Android Opportunity Addenda
http://daringfireball.net/2009/08/android_opportunity_addenda
15 comments
I think he's wrong.
The problem is that he only sees a single market, and that's the high-end market that competes with Apple.
Competing with Apple sounds good, but it's hard. The Pre when announced had a huge advantage over the iPhone which has largely faded away in a matter of months. Apple have the development team, the advertising money, the branding, the fashion, the R&D department, and the connections with suppliers to get hardware features before a small-player can. You're doomed to be forever playing catch-up.
What's eventually going to happen is that most people will want a product that's almost as good for a lower price, on a different network, or want something in particular that's different to what Apple are offering. In the long-run, that's Android's differentiator, as Apple aren't going to want to cut features in order to compete on price, or offer a variety of specialist features such as a physical keyboard.
Finally, I hardly think telling people to wait for the 2nd generation means that people will be "waiting forever". So far, only a single manufacturer, HTC, have released Android handsets, and both the G1 (HTC Dream) and G2 (HTC Magic) were undoubtedly rush-released and flawed. The trickle of much superior second generation handsets has already begun - the HTC Hero was released last week, and the Samsung Galaxy i7500 is supposedly out next week in the UK.
The problem is that he only sees a single market, and that's the high-end market that competes with Apple.
Competing with Apple sounds good, but it's hard. The Pre when announced had a huge advantage over the iPhone which has largely faded away in a matter of months. Apple have the development team, the advertising money, the branding, the fashion, the R&D department, and the connections with suppliers to get hardware features before a small-player can. You're doomed to be forever playing catch-up.
What's eventually going to happen is that most people will want a product that's almost as good for a lower price, on a different network, or want something in particular that's different to what Apple are offering. In the long-run, that's Android's differentiator, as Apple aren't going to want to cut features in order to compete on price, or offer a variety of specialist features such as a physical keyboard.
Finally, I hardly think telling people to wait for the 2nd generation means that people will be "waiting forever". So far, only a single manufacturer, HTC, have released Android handsets, and both the G1 (HTC Dream) and G2 (HTC Magic) were undoubtedly rush-released and flawed. The trickle of much superior second generation handsets has already begun - the HTC Hero was released last week, and the Samsung Galaxy i7500 is supposedly out next week in the UK.
Fashion is fickle. I'm looking at getting a HTC Hero because a) everyone has an iPhone and b) managing my music in iTunes has been annoying since I did a clean install of Mac OS X.
I second that. HTC Hero seems to be as capable device as an iPhone, but without crazy restrictions imposed by Apple and carriers.
And it has 5MP camera that will make iPhone owners jealous (although not me - I had N82 with 5MP and Xenon flash for 1.5 years now), which Gruber seems to imply is needed to gain from Apple. Frankly I think he is wrong. What's needed is as capable device and slightly lower total cost of ownership. Hero comes close IMHO.
And it has 5MP camera that will make iPhone owners jealous (although not me - I had N82 with 5MP and Xenon flash for 1.5 years now), which Gruber seems to imply is needed to gain from Apple. Frankly I think he is wrong. What's needed is as capable device and slightly lower total cost of ownership. Hero comes close IMHO.
I have a G1 and still miss my N82. Mostly for the Xenon Flash but also the great battery life and headphone jack.
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=768358
A very thorough discussion is already taking place.
A very thorough discussion is already taking place.
Yes, and I participated in that discussion. But this page is a follow-up article from the author, and it would most likely get lost in the existing discussion. I figured the follow-up posed some points that deserved their own space for discussion, hence this submission.
Ah, you're right. I should have paid attention. It just so happened I was reading that thread immediately prior to this one.
In any case, for those just finding this one, there is a link to the previous article now :)
In any case, for those just finding this one, there is a link to the previous article now :)
I've never liked the argument that "the iPhone will fail because it's just like the Mac and that lost to Windows".
I see even less to recommend the argument that "Android will fail because it's just like Windows (which everyone uses and makes buckets of money)"
Of course I note Gruber defines success in his own terms: "where by “work” I mean “produce a phone and software platform with a state-of-the-art user experience”"
But how many people actually care about that? (Don't get me wrong, I do, but I'm not going to make or break the success of any platform by my purchasing decisions alone.)
I see even less to recommend the argument that "Android will fail because it's just like Windows (which everyone uses and makes buckets of money)"
Of course I note Gruber defines success in his own terms: "where by “work” I mean “produce a phone and software platform with a state-of-the-art user experience”"
But how many people actually care about that? (Don't get me wrong, I do, but I'm not going to make or break the success of any platform by my purchasing decisions alone.)
i don't understand how the nokia n900 phone running maemo linux can be totally ignored:
http://www.engadget.com/2009/08/19/nokias-maemo-5-tablet-sho...
http://www.engadget.com/2009/08/08/nokia-rx-51-tablet-captur...
rumored specs: http://www.engadget.com/2009/08/08/nokia-rx-51-tablet-captur...
rumored specs: http://www.engadget.com/2009/08/08/nokia-rx-51-tablet-captur...
It's not getting ignored as such; it doesn't exist yet. I own an N800. Its interface is as best tolerable, which seems to be fairly widely accepted; that's why everyone says to wait for the N900 and its new, Qt-based UI. But that's much like John Gruber's point in this article, that the problem with Android is that everyone's always focused on the next phone, because the current ones...well, stink.
The HTC hero is out now in the UK - and there seems to be quite a few iPhone users switching, including myself.
yeah, vapor ware will do that to people, and i hate to be the kind of guy who will fall in that pit (considering it will be my first "smart" phone) so yeah, guess the argument resounds.
But I still feel like this is the one I can put my money on. I mean, a debian based phone? really? i can't wait. The specs are strong, the software is strong, the community is there - we'll see when we see.
But I still feel like this is the one I can put my money on. I mean, a debian based phone? really? i can't wait. The specs are strong, the software is strong, the community is there - we'll see when we see.
It's not ignored, it's just not for sale, or even formally announced.
That's my worry, too. I remember hearing for what feels like a decade that Linux On The Desktop will be awesome "next year," and it's only over the last year or that it's (barely) reaching adequate.
Right now the theory of Android is far better than the implementation. Let's hope that actually changes quickly.