Ask HN: How long until we can become immortal?
At the rate science is advancing, i can assume at one point we'll be able to live forever - the method is not at question here, rather in how many years it will be possible. Expand if you like.
6 comments
It's been posited that people would live on average to 200 just from unnatural causes of death (accidents, etc.)
The way to live forever is to not die of something first. Aging is merely a combination of natural processes we're only slowly getting a firm handle on.
The primary fundamental aging mechanism that we're showing promise for is telomere shortening. Essentially, the mitochondria in our cells have DNA that slowly and steadily degrades, much like your car guzzling more and more gas to go the same distance as it ages. There is an enzyme called telomerase that repairs this damage, and it is showing promise in animal trials. If it works in humans and comes out in a pill, I'd expect lifespans to go up by about 30-40 years.
To become immune to natural causes of death, I'd say we're looking at 200 more years. Living to the age of 10,000, perhaps 100.
The way to live forever is to not die of something first. Aging is merely a combination of natural processes we're only slowly getting a firm handle on.
The primary fundamental aging mechanism that we're showing promise for is telomere shortening. Essentially, the mitochondria in our cells have DNA that slowly and steadily degrades, much like your car guzzling more and more gas to go the same distance as it ages. There is an enzyme called telomerase that repairs this damage, and it is showing promise in animal trials. If it works in humans and comes out in a pill, I'd expect lifespans to go up by about 30-40 years.
To become immune to natural causes of death, I'd say we're looking at 200 more years. Living to the age of 10,000, perhaps 100.
Exercising to live longer actually works against us because it speeds up cellular division which we actually want to retard if we want to live longer.
Problem is we are starting to go backwards. It is more likely we will see a new Dark Ages in the next 30 years or so. :(
With the technology we have, 10-20 years from now for sure scientist will be able to figure out a way for us to be immortal. It's a big possibility and not impossible.
At the rate science and technology was expanding since we landed on the moon, we should've been on Mars. What makes you think that this particular point in time presages a predictable increase in scientific discovery?
Well, there have been more scientific advancements in the last 500 years than over the last 50000 before them. I don't imply we're getting inmortality soon, but we're exponentially getting there.
I think expanding the life to 100-130 years might be possible in next 20-30 years for people in private jet category.
I don't think we can get to the point where person can live over 90 years old and has his cognitive capabilities intact and here is why:
If you hang around with old people in their 80's and 90's who are still exceptionally smart and have retained their faculties, you can still see how their cognition has changed. Brains might change only slightly after they reach their peak around 25, but we still carry the baggage of previously learned stuff. We don't have the so called "fresh eyes" anymore.
We see our current situation filtered trough our past experiences and I think this emotional and cognitive crystallization just goes on even with fully healthy brain. Using machine learning terminology, human brain can't backtrack from previously learned and their learning bias only increases. If our brains only increase their bias and specialization over time, learning stuff that is outside that field becomes more difficult and we lose the ability to adapt to big changes that will happen.
I don't think we can get to the point where person can live over 90 years old and has his cognitive capabilities intact and here is why:
If you hang around with old people in their 80's and 90's who are still exceptionally smart and have retained their faculties, you can still see how their cognition has changed. Brains might change only slightly after they reach their peak around 25, but we still carry the baggage of previously learned stuff. We don't have the so called "fresh eyes" anymore.
We see our current situation filtered trough our past experiences and I think this emotional and cognitive crystallization just goes on even with fully healthy brain. Using machine learning terminology, human brain can't backtrack from previously learned and their learning bias only increases. If our brains only increase their bias and specialization over time, learning stuff that is outside that field becomes more difficult and we lose the ability to adapt to big changes that will happen.