All-You-Can-Fly Airline Plies the California Coast(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
All-You-Can-Fly Airline Plies the California Coast
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/06/business/airline-banks-on-a-buffet-style-business-model.html
11 comments
Turboprops or even piston are a better choice for routes like SB to Burbank than turbofan aircraft; it's just that passengers strongly associate turbofan aircraft with "quality and comfort", so the commercial market loves those.
And, for commercial service under some parts, you're forced to use twin engines. Single engine aircraft are objectively better in a lot of ways, and on par for overall safety (it's better to lose an engine in ideal cases in a twin, but things often go wrong with the recovery procedures, and engines are very reliable, and with twins you have twice as many engines to potentially break anyway...)
Some of the badness is actually FAA not being able to fund better ATC allowing more flexible routing.
And, for commercial service under some parts, you're forced to use twin engines. Single engine aircraft are objectively better in a lot of ways, and on par for overall safety (it's better to lose an engine in ideal cases in a twin, but things often go wrong with the recovery procedures, and engines are very reliable, and with twins you have twice as many engines to potentially break anyway...)
Some of the badness is actually FAA not being able to fund better ATC allowing more flexible routing.
> Turboprops or even piston are a better choice for routes like SB to Burbank than turbofan aircraft.
> Single engine aircraft are objectively better in a lot of ways.
Do you feel like giving us any reasons? :)
> Single engine aircraft are objectively better in a lot of ways.
Do you feel like giving us any reasons? :)
Turboprops (and some pistons) are way more efficient at low altitudes. For a short route, most of your time is spent a lot altitudes, so the prop is going to be a lot more efficient. Saves fuel, makes it cheaper to fly, thus lower fares.
Single engine aircraft have been shown to be essentially as safe as twins, at least on light aircraft like these. Engines very rarely fail, and a twin engine light craft failing often fails in a way where the plane still is unflyable, or the pilots of those aircraft aren't able to recover (more of an issue for private single pilots vs. a charter with two). There are some ways where it doesn't matter how many engines the aircraft has, and the twin engines add complexity which increase the odds of problems (which generally cause ground stops or non-crash incidents, but which could possibly cause crashes). Twins also cost more per hour to operate (in fuel, and especially maintenance), and cost more to buy. Inexperienced pilots also manage to crash aircraft with two working engines by doing stupid things with the engines, where they may not in a single, although this is less of an issue with FADEC I think.
For a long flight over the ocean, a big twin turbofan ETOPS certified or maybe even a trijet or 4-engine aircraft is the way to go, but for short domestic flights over land, a single (turboprop, ideally, but even some pistons) would be my choice. My dream aircraft is a CH801 (kit) with a diesel engine (super slow, ~$100-150k), or a Cessna Grand Caravan ($300k and up to low millions if new and highly outfitted).
Single engine aircraft have been shown to be essentially as safe as twins, at least on light aircraft like these. Engines very rarely fail, and a twin engine light craft failing often fails in a way where the plane still is unflyable, or the pilots of those aircraft aren't able to recover (more of an issue for private single pilots vs. a charter with two). There are some ways where it doesn't matter how many engines the aircraft has, and the twin engines add complexity which increase the odds of problems (which generally cause ground stops or non-crash incidents, but which could possibly cause crashes). Twins also cost more per hour to operate (in fuel, and especially maintenance), and cost more to buy. Inexperienced pilots also manage to crash aircraft with two working engines by doing stupid things with the engines, where they may not in a single, although this is less of an issue with FADEC I think.
For a long flight over the ocean, a big twin turbofan ETOPS certified or maybe even a trijet or 4-engine aircraft is the way to go, but for short domestic flights over land, a single (turboprop, ideally, but even some pistons) would be my choice. My dream aircraft is a CH801 (kit) with a diesel engine (super slow, ~$100-150k), or a Cessna Grand Caravan ($300k and up to low millions if new and highly outfitted).
I remember reading (~10-15 years ago?) that although the general public's impression was that propellers make planes unreliable, it was actually turbines that made airplane engines reliable (which means you really want turboprops rather than piston-propeller aircraft)
Have airplane piston engines become as reliable as turboprops?
Have airplane piston engines become as reliable as turboprops?
I don't objectively agree with the latter point, but rdl is correct about the former. It takes high altitudes for tubofans to come into their element in the efficiency gradient, and short routes don't really stay in that area of altitude long enough to give them an advantage. Turboprops are more efficient at lower altitudes, which is perfect for short hop flights -- where you're spending half of the time climbing/descending anyways. This is partly why Porter Airlines in Toronto flies Q400s.
They're clearly objectively better in a lot of ways; you could just argue that they're not net-better overall, since there are also advantages to twins. Single is undeniably cheaper to buy/operate. Since you never push off without both engines good, there's no way a twin would have higher dispatch rate than a single (since there are ~twice as many parts to deadline your aircraft).
You may still value "has extra engine in case one dies in flight" more than this, though. (and I did, until I saw how singles actually had approximately the same safety stats as twins, at least for private pilots most like what I'd be.)
You may still value "has extra engine in case one dies in flight" more than this, though. (and I did, until I saw how singles actually had approximately the same safety stats as twins, at least for private pilots most like what I'd be.)
I wonder if twin-engined aircraft are less better maintained for the reasons you mentioned. Since you only have one engine to 'push off' with on a single, you better make damn sure it's in good working order.
That's ETOPS vs. 3/4 engine aircraft, I believe, but I don't think the maintenance and reliability standards are appreciably different for civilian 1 vs. 2. Mainly because no scheduled service is done using a single engine, so it doesn't even come up.
I'm pretty sure military maintenance standards are so entirely different that their extensive experience with single engine aircraft isn't meaningful -- plus, their singles are mainly either very military specific (F-16 and other light fighters) or historical. Most of their transport aircraft have something in common with commercial, now, except maybe C-130s. And the USN has generally favored twin vs. single for "reliability over water" anyway.
I'm pretty sure military maintenance standards are so entirely different that their extensive experience with single engine aircraft isn't meaningful -- plus, their singles are mainly either very military specific (F-16 and other light fighters) or historical. Most of their transport aircraft have something in common with commercial, now, except maybe C-130s. And the USN has generally favored twin vs. single for "reliability over water" anyway.
I fly a fair amount and don't find that I wait significantly longer for airport security now than I did before 9/11. I don't like the TSA any more than you do, but I don't think they're the major cause of commercial airport delays.
But of course they are, or more general the web of DHS/TSA/FAA/etc. regulations is the reason why commercial air travel has not advanced in door-to-door speed.
Without the regulations you could imagine an airport that pre-screened travellers. You roll up to the curb, get valet parked, and your bags checked, and then you get on the flight. You'd build the entire airport around this rapid on/off experience. You could have an airline that would run an Uber-style service to pick you up at your door. You'd solve the whole problem.
But there's no Toyota-style optimizations applied because these optimizations are illegal. Prime among them is that efficiency of this kind would make the airport more of a target IF it was also prevented by law from discriminating against potential dangerous passengers, which it would be.
And that's why when you ban selectivity at the federal level the necessary consequence is mediocrity.
Without the regulations you could imagine an airport that pre-screened travellers. You roll up to the curb, get valet parked, and your bags checked, and then you get on the flight. You'd build the entire airport around this rapid on/off experience. You could have an airline that would run an Uber-style service to pick you up at your door. You'd solve the whole problem.
But there's no Toyota-style optimizations applied because these optimizations are illegal. Prime among them is that efficiency of this kind would make the airport more of a target IF it was also prevented by law from discriminating against potential dangerous passengers, which it would be.
And that's why when you ban selectivity at the federal level the necessary consequence is mediocrity.
> pre-screened travellers
The problem is that you can't reliably pre-screen for terrorists, the signal is plainly undetectable in the noise - there are 95 million passengers a year at Atlanta alone and 19 hijackers on 9/11.
You're bound to get a lot of false positives, and then what do you do with them? In the meantime, the actual terrorists just wait until they successfully get a guy pre-screened, and he then just walks on board with a bomb.
The problem is that you can't reliably pre-screen for terrorists, the signal is plainly undetectable in the noise - there are 95 million passengers a year at Atlanta alone and 19 hijackers on 9/11.
You're bound to get a lot of false positives, and then what do you do with them? In the meantime, the actual terrorists just wait until they successfully get a guy pre-screened, and he then just walks on board with a bomb.
Pre-screening is not only legal, it has just been expanded to the general public.
You can't run an airline that is free to exclude any passenger at will. TSA pre-check is based on the fallacious inference that rich frequent flyers and terrorists are a distinct set. Saudi royal-funded operatives may well be more likely to be frequent flyers than the general population.
It's more that if you didn't flag them the first N times you're rather unlikely to flag them in the future. The screening isn't perfect but screening these people more won't help.
In the case of California and the SFO-LA route, isn't it pretty much universally acknowledged that SFO is one of the better airports for security, precisely because it's not run by the TSA but out-sourced instead?
The Pilatus PC12 single engine turboprop is far more efficient for this sort of mission than a twin engine turbofan jet. This lowers operation and maintenance costs which this airline is passing onto consumers.
Yup, turbo props are far more efficient than turbo jet at low altitudes.
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And the economics of air travel, such as they are, make a round trip flight to Santa Barbara $500 as the 'cheap' fare [1] in coach. If you fly four times a month you save money with this plan.
But the TSA thing is a real pain too. A friend of mine who has his pilots license requires all passengers have at least 16 oz of fluids and a knife with them when they fly :-) We joke but he did point out that if you were in flight 214 trapped under a stuck seatbelt or malfunctioning escape slide with no pocket knife you could have died.
[1] Plus fees of course
But the TSA thing is a real pain too. A friend of mine who has his pilots license requires all passengers have at least 16 oz of fluids and a knife with them when they fly :-) We joke but he did point out that if you were in flight 214 trapped under a stuck seatbelt or malfunctioning escape slide with no pocket knife you could have died.
[1] Plus fees of course
I was in California in 2009 and found it weird that there was no daily train between LA and SF - it only runs (ran?) every second day. The day I left, I had to get a bus to Bakersfield to connect to the train.
The other striking thing was train travel in the South being heavily subsidised - huge distances travelled for not much money, with power for your laptop and lots of space to move around. If the train schedule was appropriate for you, you'd be crazy to fly instead.
The other striking thing was train travel in the South being heavily subsidised - huge distances travelled for not much money, with power for your laptop and lots of space to move around. If the train schedule was appropriate for you, you'd be crazy to fly instead.
The Coast Starlight (http://www.amtrak.com/coast-starlight-train) has been running once a day between LA and Oakland for years, with a connecting bus to SF - here's its schedule: http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/935/314/Coast-Starlight-Schedule... It takes about 12 hours if there are no delays. It's a lovely and relaxing trip, but that's a long time compared to flying or driving.
If you want to leave SF/Oakland later than 9 am or LA later than 10 am, you have to take some long bus connections (which aren't very fun) and the San Joaquin or Pacific Surfliner.
If you want to leave SF/Oakland later than 9 am or LA later than 10 am, you have to take some long bus connections (which aren't very fun) and the San Joaquin or Pacific Surfliner.
Would that trip be interesting for a high-speed train connection? It's approximately 600 km (380 miles), that should be possible in about 3 hours. The terrain doesn't look too bad either at first glance.
As was stated, it's being worked on. It also runs into one of those things that a lot of people from outside of California don't realize about the state. There are a /lot/ of mountain ranges. The Starlight itself meanders along and through various bits of the coastal ranges of California, which, while absolutely gorgeous, leads to a path that's not particularly amenable to high speed travel.
So, the state needs to build new trackage through a 3000 ft (~1km) pass getting out of LA, and more trackage through a 1500 ft pass getting out of the SF area in order to use the much more straight and speedy right-of-way going through the middle of the state. Once that's done, and the rights of way along the corridor are upgraded, high speed rail will run between the points. Just gonna take another 15-20 years to do so.
So, the state needs to build new trackage through a 3000 ft (~1km) pass getting out of LA, and more trackage through a 1500 ft pass getting out of the SF area in order to use the much more straight and speedy right-of-way going through the middle of the state. Once that's done, and the rights of way along the corridor are upgraded, high speed rail will run between the points. Just gonna take another 15-20 years to do so.
They appear to be working on that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail
What you actually need there is sleeper cars.
Imagine getting on the train at 7 in the evening, lying on your own bed reading books and drinking tea, sleeping actually then getting off the train at 9 in the morning at the railway terminal in another city.
Imagine getting on the train at 7 in the evening, lying on your own bed reading books and drinking tea, sleeping actually then getting off the train at 9 in the morning at the railway terminal in another city.
They do have sleeper cars but the trip between LA and SF is far too short to make it overnight.
I find the railway network in the US simply deplorable. In most of Europe, people complain if they miss an hourly connection, and we have night trains on most days to most large cities.
It's not just the TSA that will make this popular - I see the convenience as a big draw. As this expands to more regional airports, it will be even more practical. Being able to drive to a smaller, less crowded airport will be a selling point. You don't have to deal with the stresses of huge terminals and tons of people.
I've never quite mentally reconciled the idea that people whose industry is built on telecommunication should have to spend hours and days traveling to talk about it.
I suspect that might change in the near future if telepresence with large, 4K screens showing life-sized, full body representations of people became commonplace. It seems like a lot of the necessity of in-person conferences and meetings is still things like realistic eye contact and subtle body language cues.
No, lower profit margins will kill it. With current enterprise software pricing you can afford lots of flights as part of the sales process. With SAAS type models you can't.
There will always be software that is worth the equivalent of millions of dollars (at least for the foreseeable future).
Maybe you can build a SAAS equivalent to SAP that puts it out of business... but companies will want a HumanBrainSimulatron (R) or a perfect weather forecaster or whatever the next complex software is, which will still be multimillion dollars' worth.
Maybe you can build a SAAS equivalent to SAP that puts it out of business... but companies will want a HumanBrainSimulatron (R) or a perfect weather forecaster or whatever the next complex software is, which will still be multimillion dollars' worth.
Fascinating! Although, as a cautionary data point, selling "all you can fly" didn't work too well for American Airlines:
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/05/business/la-fi-0506-...
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/05/business/la-fi-0506-...
That was because the people were allowed to fly with a "guest", and started selling their seats to strangers in violation of the rules.
With this airline, everyone will be required to buy a membership -- no "guests".
With this airline, everyone will be required to buy a membership -- no "guests".
Also, this seems to be month-to-month as opposed to a lifetime deal. "Unlimited" for a month could be true. "Unlimited" for life isn't.
I wonder how the duration-limited "all you can fly" JetBlue deals worked out for them.
"Unlimited airpasses" for international visitors to places like Southeast Asia are pretty common, combined with long-haul international flights, too.
"Unlimited airpasses" for international visitors to places like Southeast Asia are pretty common, combined with long-haul international flights, too.
No, there are guests allowed. I asked if I could fly someone to visit me instead of me going to them, but the account manager said I had to accompany all guests. =\ Understandable, but less useful for me.
It's interesting that he ran the numbers and picked single engine aircraft for safety (but with two pilots); this seems correct from what I've seen of small aircraft stats. If you look at successful dispatch rate, it's even more clear that single engine is the way to go.
I'd do something like this if they covered Seattle, SF, Reno, Portland, and central-WA (datacenters) and central-OR (datacenters). Throw in SB/LA/SD/LV for extra fun, but the northern areas are what I care about much much more.
I'd do something like this if they covered Seattle, SF, Reno, Portland, and central-WA (datacenters) and central-OR (datacenters). Throw in SB/LA/SD/LV for extra fun, but the northern areas are what I care about much much more.
Light twin piston engine aircraft have can be difficult to control on one engine, and may not even maintain altitude in some conditions. A PC-12 uses a PT6 turboprop engine, which is one of the most reliable turboprop engines available.
Light twin piston aircraft are not exactly cheap either.
Light twin piston aircraft are not exactly cheap either.
Indeed; I've had this conversation (in favor of a Grand Caravan) with lots of crappy C-23 (Shorts 330) military pilots. And the "oh, let's put fuel above the passenger compartment in a plane we're flying in a warzone" question, too. The C-12 King Airs were somewhat better, but tiny. I'd take a PC-12 > King Air anyday, and a Caravan or Grand Caravan in general (due to superior cargo capability, even at the cost of range), but that's my preference.
Very cool. Virgin started with one only plane. SA's present niche is quite different. The bottom line is that it's doable considering others still exist.
Tip: Virgin LHR counter is well run and I look forward to stopping by for that reason. It's not about promoting a particular brand as a good way of doing life... leave the world a better place.
Tip: Virgin LHR counter is well run and I look forward to stopping by for that reason. It's not about promoting a particular brand as a good way of doing life... leave the world a better place.
I'm a PC-12 pilot in the Northeast and have been watching this company since it was little more than an idea and a Twitter account (original name Plane Red). Their marketing and execution is so much better than other small airlines. I'd love to see a service like this come to the NYC area. So many people spend far more than this per month on tickets to go to Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, the Hamptons and coastal Maine.
If they could find a way to drop the monthly cost of this to around $500, this could potentially make working in the Bay Area more viable for a lot of people.
If you could shave $500 off your monthly rent or mortgage by living in a coastal CA city and just flying in to work in Silicon Valley or SF, I think a lot more people would be willing to sign up. The service would essentially pay for itself.
If you could shave $500 off your monthly rent or mortgage by living in a coastal CA city and just flying in to work in Silicon Valley or SF, I think a lot more people would be willing to sign up. The service would essentially pay for itself.
I am on the waiting list, depending on limits and schedule of the service I will be using this about three or four times a week to do a daily commute between my condo in Los Angeles and eBay in San Jose. It works out to about what I would pay for a Bay area shared room but I get to come home each evening and see my cats and dog. And my wife.
Daily commuters are exactly the kind of person that will make this airline cease to exist, because the service could no longer pay for itself.
If they can make this work in Tahoe that would be great. A few commercial airlines have tried service to South Lake Tahoe, but the weather has made service too unpredictable. It might make sense to use Reno or Minden NV airports to access Tahoe.
It's like web hosting. You have to be careful not to overload the servers, or in this case planes, so that paying the monthly is not worth it.
I know a lot of consultants who fly every weekend. If this had better city coverage it would actually be cost effective.
great place for the dhs to blow shit up and give the tsa reason to fuck around.
i hear they're policing highways already.
about time for these assholes to expand to europe. it's more likely i get struck by lightning but i'm so afraid of terrorists! come grope me!
Instead, we're running inefficient propeller planes for short distances and really high prices, and people are treating it like it's some amazing new innovation.