Apple Is Doomed(daringfireball.net)
daringfireball.net
Apple Is Doomed
http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/11/09/sobotta
5 comments
The truth probably lies somewhere in between what the flaming fanboy and Mr.Disgruntled are saying.
Apple seems to make the most money when they open up a new market and lock out the competition for a long period of time, as they did with the iPod. The iPhone's dominance was challenged quicker than the iPod's, and the iPad's quicker still. If you consider 7" tablets their own market, Apple is actually late to the party. Why are other manufacturers catching up quicker or even taking the lead? They all remember the iPod.
So what does this mean for Apple? The profits aren't going to come as easy as they did before because the competition moves a lot quicker than they used to. If Apple opens up a new market they're going to face competition in it almost immediately because the competition knows they have to move fast and is capable of doing so. No more decades of dominance and easy-money. Does that mean Apple is doomed? Absolutely not. Apple is still wildly profitable even though they are no longer completely dominant in even one market they make products for. Their production chain is lean enough that they can compete in markets dominated by commodity pricing. That focus on production efficiency is not going to change under Tim Cook. Quite the opposite!
There does seem to be evidence that we'll see an extended period of decline for Apple under Cook though. In the last couple years Apple has released several half-baked products and polish seems to be declining. e.g. OSX Lion and Mountain Lion have both had an aberrant number of bugs, even by the standards of other OS's. Jobs, unlike what many people think, was never an idea man. His value was in knowing who to copy and when to say "No", and Cook needed to say no to things like Apple Maps, or at least give them more time to bake. Even if Cook has truly horrible tech instincts it will probably take a very long time for Apple to decline to the point of losing money. Despite how far MS fell in some people's eyes, they never failed to turn a profit. Apple is also sitting on such a gargantuan pile of cash that they could lose money hand-over-fist for decades before running into real trouble.
Apple might not continue to be the leading juggernaut it's been for the last decade, but they're in no danger of going out of business.
Apple seems to make the most money when they open up a new market and lock out the competition for a long period of time, as they did with the iPod. The iPhone's dominance was challenged quicker than the iPod's, and the iPad's quicker still. If you consider 7" tablets their own market, Apple is actually late to the party. Why are other manufacturers catching up quicker or even taking the lead? They all remember the iPod.
So what does this mean for Apple? The profits aren't going to come as easy as they did before because the competition moves a lot quicker than they used to. If Apple opens up a new market they're going to face competition in it almost immediately because the competition knows they have to move fast and is capable of doing so. No more decades of dominance and easy-money. Does that mean Apple is doomed? Absolutely not. Apple is still wildly profitable even though they are no longer completely dominant in even one market they make products for. Their production chain is lean enough that they can compete in markets dominated by commodity pricing. That focus on production efficiency is not going to change under Tim Cook. Quite the opposite!
There does seem to be evidence that we'll see an extended period of decline for Apple under Cook though. In the last couple years Apple has released several half-baked products and polish seems to be declining. e.g. OSX Lion and Mountain Lion have both had an aberrant number of bugs, even by the standards of other OS's. Jobs, unlike what many people think, was never an idea man. His value was in knowing who to copy and when to say "No", and Cook needed to say no to things like Apple Maps, or at least give them more time to bake. Even if Cook has truly horrible tech instincts it will probably take a very long time for Apple to decline to the point of losing money. Despite how far MS fell in some people's eyes, they never failed to turn a profit. Apple is also sitting on such a gargantuan pile of cash that they could lose money hand-over-fist for decades before running into real trouble.
Apple might not continue to be the leading juggernaut it's been for the last decade, but they're in no danger of going out of business.
"Apple seems to make the most money when they open up a new market and lock out the competition for a long period of time"
They are doing quite well on PCs in the modern era.
They are doing quite well on PCs in the modern era.
http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/ios-devices-account-for-7...
iTunes is probably a significant chunk of the remaining quarter.
iTunes is probably a significant chunk of the remaining quarter.
Another blog spelling doom for Apple. A few months back there was one similar for Google, then there was the Microsoft one. I must say 'Blogosphere is Doomed'
EDIT - I was close to reporting the story, but then even though trite, it's an opinion.
EDIT - I was close to reporting the story, but then even though trite, it's an opinion.
Apple is doomed because they're not focusing on desktop computers? Um..... what?
Alternately: Apple is ignoring desktop computers because the market is mobile and laptops, and really it's just corporations and enthusiasts that will go out of their way for a desktop... ya know, the kinds of people that aren't going to buy a Mac anyway. So why should Apple focus on a market that they're making obselete?
Alternately: Apple is ignoring desktop computers because the market is mobile and laptops, and really it's just corporations and enthusiasts that will go out of their way for a desktop... ya know, the kinds of people that aren't going to buy a Mac anyway. So why should Apple focus on a market that they're making obselete?
$COMPANY is doomed because they're ignoring $BUZZWORD. It's sort of like $INANE_ANALOGY.
I give them 3 months, tops.
I give them 3 months, tops.
http://readwrite.com/2012/11/08/whats-it-like-to-work-for-ti...