1859's "Great Auroral Storm"—the week the Sun touched the earth(arstechnica.com)
arstechnica.com
1859's "Great Auroral Storm"—the week the Sun touched the earth
http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2012/05/1859s-great-auroral-stormthe-week-the-sun-touched-the-earth.ars
36 comments
Aurora is like fire; taming it would serve us yes, but it is easy to predict when they will occur, and that seems a problem with continuity of electricity supply.
That's a very apt description of the problem!
Technology should be developed to tap the ionosphere, where there's a fairly constant stream of electrons. I think the biggest obstacle in the past was storage: breakthroughs were needed in material science to be able to construct suitable capacitors. But I wonder if anyone's looked at this problem recently...
Technology should be developed to tap the ionosphere, where there's a fairly constant stream of electrons. I think the biggest obstacle in the past was storage: breakthroughs were needed in material science to be able to construct suitable capacitors. But I wonder if anyone's looked at this problem recently...
Made me wonder how you could prepare for something like this. If you had warning, and a metal box, would throwing all of your electronics in there be good enough to save them?
I'm thinking computer, phone, stuff like that.
Either way, I'm guessing the internet would be down for quite a while. Not to mention what this would do to our electrical infrastructure.
Hmm. I wonder if the fields would strong enough to kill the computers in cars.
This might make for a good near-future apocalyptic scenario. It doesn't sound too scary, but then you start thinking of the possibilities.
Think I'll go make myself a tinfoil hat :D.
I'm thinking computer, phone, stuff like that.
Either way, I'm guessing the internet would be down for quite a while. Not to mention what this would do to our electrical infrastructure.
Hmm. I wonder if the fields would strong enough to kill the computers in cars.
This might make for a good near-future apocalyptic scenario. It doesn't sound too scary, but then you start thinking of the possibilities.
Think I'll go make myself a tinfoil hat :D.
> Think I'll go make myself a tinfoil hat :D.
Aluminum can attract radio waves. Among other things. I wouldn't recommend it.
(http://web.archive.org/web/20100708230258/http://people.csai...)
>If you had warning, and a metal box, would throwing all of your electronics in there be good enough to save them?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_cage
Aluminum can attract radio waves. Among other things. I wouldn't recommend it.
(http://web.archive.org/web/20100708230258/http://people.csai...)
>If you had warning, and a metal box, would throwing all of your electronics in there be good enough to save them?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_cage
A Faraday cage will not work, the frequency is too low. You'd need some Mu-metal.
You don't have to do that.
It's long powerlines that will be strongly affected from induced current. Small wires like those in devices will not be damaged.
And in any case a metal box will not help - the frequency is very low, and a faraday cage will not work (the magnetic field will go right through it).
If you do want to shield it you'd need some Mu-metal.
And, BTW you will have warning. Usually 1 or 2 days, sometimes as little as 12 hours, but you will have warning.
It's long powerlines that will be strongly affected from induced current. Small wires like those in devices will not be damaged.
And in any case a metal box will not help - the frequency is very low, and a faraday cage will not work (the magnetic field will go right through it).
If you do want to shield it you'd need some Mu-metal.
And, BTW you will have warning. Usually 1 or 2 days, sometimes as little as 12 hours, but you will have warning.
would that mean that wireless communication (radio, mobile, wifi) would be less affected?
Electronics on Earth will probably be OK as long as they are not plugged in (and preferably powered off). The atmosphere makes a pretty good barrier to the charged particles that will destroy satellite electronics.
The main problem to worry about is in the power grid as the rapidly changing magnetic field induces strong currents in transmission lines (or any other kilometres long piece of conductor such as copper telephone lines).
A major solar storm event such as that would likely destroy satellite communications, GPS, et cetera, and severely damage power grids and potentially telecommunications infrastructure. Your laptop would be OK. Of course, you might not have power or internet connection for several days or weeks.
The main problem to worry about is in the power grid as the rapidly changing magnetic field induces strong currents in transmission lines (or any other kilometres long piece of conductor such as copper telephone lines).
A major solar storm event such as that would likely destroy satellite communications, GPS, et cetera, and severely damage power grids and potentially telecommunications infrastructure. Your laptop would be OK. Of course, you might not have power or internet connection for several days or weeks.
More like months, according to the IEEE: http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/a-perfect-s...
massive solar eruptions capable of destroying humanity are covered in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunstorm_(novel)
good book. i liked how the emergency services, military and police were using ancient pre electronic ground vehicles as they were the only ones that could survive or operate in such conditions.
good book. i liked how the emergency services, military and police were using ancient pre electronic ground vehicles as they were the only ones that could survive or operate in such conditions.
Good question. I believe the ECUs and other electronics inside cars won't be affected - cars are made of metal, acting as a cage for the internals themselves, while the ECUs have their own EM protective cage.
Reading the article, it seems to me that only the satellites in orbit (and the ISS, unfortunately) will be severely damaged, while on the surface, we'll have to shut down our electronics and power stations (not an easy thing to do) to prevent damage...
Hopefully, if we are to have such a storm, it will come within the next two decades and be relatively mild, so we can learn how to protect ourselves from them in the future (and see just what kind of damage it can do)...
Reading the article, it seems to me that only the satellites in orbit (and the ISS, unfortunately) will be severely damaged, while on the surface, we'll have to shut down our electronics and power stations (not an easy thing to do) to prevent damage...
Hopefully, if we are to have such a storm, it will come within the next two decades and be relatively mild, so we can learn how to protect ourselves from them in the future (and see just what kind of damage it can do)...
Yes, but you need fuel to run cars. And much of fuel extraction and refinements happens through machines that depend on electronic control systems.
Nobody builds fuel extraction plants preparing for massive solar flares.
While electronics in your car might be safe. You might not have fuel to use it.
Nobody builds fuel extraction plants preparing for massive solar flares.
While electronics in your car might be safe. You might not have fuel to use it.
I wouldn't worry about the extraction platforms. Refineries, maybe, but they're all equipped with on-site backups and the technology is pretty much mechanical, except for some electronic components that are non-essential.
Diesel engines and most electronics on ships will also be unaffected, since the ships are grounded by water and those engines are pretty much mechanical monsters - the supply of fuel will most likely go uninterrupted (heck, I'd worry more about governments and criminals using the opportunity to start something)...
Diesel engines and most electronics on ships will also be unaffected, since the ships are grounded by water and those engines are pretty much mechanical monsters - the supply of fuel will most likely go uninterrupted (heck, I'd worry more about governments and criminals using the opportunity to start something)...
There is nothing that exists in Isolation today. Everything thing depends on each other. That's the most beautiful and the scariest part.
When these sort of scenarios are discussed, we take into account only the first impacted entity. We don't analyze the things that get impacted because of the first entity and things that depend on each other. There are going to chained failures of systems. Each depending on other to recover. While none can at the moment.
When you see the whole equation in the entirety you will realize a single massive failure in one entity can send you back centuries.
When these sort of scenarios are discussed, we take into account only the first impacted entity. We don't analyze the things that get impacted because of the first entity and things that depend on each other. There are going to chained failures of systems. Each depending on other to recover. While none can at the moment.
When you see the whole equation in the entirety you will realize a single massive failure in one entity can send you back centuries.
Refineries, maybe, but they're all equipped with on-site backups and the technology is pretty much mechanical, except for some electronic components that are non-essential.
Most of a modern refinery is controlled by PLCs and computers.
Most of a modern refinery is controlled by PLCs and computers.
Things will be far worse. If satellites get bricked a lot of things as we know it will come to a grinding halt.And as you said the other electronic and electrical equipment or earth will be dead.
I guess we will be without most modern technology for a quite a while, and starting from scratch will neither be easy nor cheap.
This is why we need to move out to space as quickly as we can. We have to do it while we can. One incident like this can take us centuries back.
I guess we will be without most modern technology for a quite a while, and starting from scratch will neither be easy nor cheap.
This is why we need to move out to space as quickly as we can. We have to do it while we can. One incident like this can take us centuries back.
Centuries? This stuff didn't even exist a century ago.
You are majorly exaggerating. Satellites might die, but they may not. They have shielding, and if they shut them down they could survive.
Most modern technology? It's just electronics, and only some of it at that. Most will survive just fine.
The power grid will take a hit, but if they shut it down in advance, that will protect both it, and anything connected to it.
There will be plenty of warning in advance and time to do it.
This will hurt, but it will be very very temporary.
You are majorly exaggerating. Satellites might die, but they may not. They have shielding, and if they shut them down they could survive.
Most modern technology? It's just electronics, and only some of it at that. Most will survive just fine.
The power grid will take a hit, but if they shut it down in advance, that will protect both it, and anything connected to it.
There will be plenty of warning in advance and time to do it.
This will hurt, but it will be very very temporary.
Is there a good resource for what would actually happen to the power grid? I was under the impression that the large near-DC currents induced by the changing magnetic field would destroy the wires, burn through insulators, etc., regardless of whether everything is shut down.
Here's a good article at the IEEE. They say an 1859-level flare could wipe out the grid. The big transformers would be destroyed, we don't have spares, and they're built painstakingly by hand, by skilled artisans who spend years learning how.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/a-perfect-s...
There's a new device that could be installed to protect those transformers, but it's still in testing.
With enough warning, disconnecting the transformers would protect them, but the operators have to have the guts to purposely cause massive blackouts. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2011/08/11080...
There's a new device that could be installed to protect those transformers, but it's still in testing.
With enough warning, disconnecting the transformers would protect them, but the operators have to have the guts to purposely cause massive blackouts. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2011/08/11080...
It all depends on what kind of scenario you consider. We are talking of a worse case scenario.
Something like a really big solar flare. Anything less than that isn't even worth the discussion, because that is not harmful, anyway.
Something like a really big solar flare. Anything less than that isn't even worth the discussion, because that is not harmful, anyway.
One wonders if we would not be mourning the loss of life in the International Space Station. In 2004 a program to beef up the shielding was kicked off [1] but nobody would commit to saying it would keep the crew alive in a 'Carrington' type event.
My hope is that by the time the next one comes we have both a way to shield satellites and a way to launch replacements quickly.
[1] http://www.nasa.gov/vision/space/travelinginspace/radiation_...
My hope is that by the time the next one comes we have both a way to shield satellites and a way to launch replacements quickly.
[1] http://www.nasa.gov/vision/space/travelinginspace/radiation_...
They have an escape vehicle they could use. It would not be a sudden event - there would be at a minimum 12 hours notice, and usually a day or two.
You are forgetting about airplanes - they would also be effected, and would probably be grounded.
You are forgetting about airplanes - they would also be effected, and would probably be grounded.
While the technology might be available there is also something called as economic cost. A lot of what we have today is because we are building something on top of something.
If everything were to go away starting from scratch is not going to be very economically viable.
Add to this the external woes. Loss of electronic life means, several millions will loose jobs and will have to fall back on manual work. The population of the planet has increased substantially. Food, medical and other needs have increased. Much of that scalability depends on electronic means to controlling stuff.
Disruption on a massive level only means extreme chaos.
If everything were to go away starting from scratch is not going to be very economically viable.
Add to this the external woes. Loss of electronic life means, several millions will loose jobs and will have to fall back on manual work. The population of the planet has increased substantially. Food, medical and other needs have increased. Much of that scalability depends on electronic means to controlling stuff.
Disruption on a massive level only means extreme chaos.
But we have all the blueprints and know how - we don't have to build everything from scratch (most of the time is spent on R&D, building the stuff is actually the easy part). Organize the military and the civilians to start rebuilding everything and we're back on track in several months for sure (except for the satellites, maybe)...
Firstly a lot of information today is on hard drives.
We are talking of a massive solar flare. Electronic equipment down, hard disks fried, access to energy limited, communication equipment down. Information in books is safe, but how much of modern information today is in printed books?
If you look at the whole equation. There are going to chained failures of systems. Each depending on other to recover. While none can at the moment.
A scary situation though.
We are talking of a massive solar flare. Electronic equipment down, hard disks fried, access to energy limited, communication equipment down. Information in books is safe, but how much of modern information today is in printed books?
If you look at the whole equation. There are going to chained failures of systems. Each depending on other to recover. While none can at the moment.
A scary situation though.
Hard drives sit in their own Faraday Cage. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_cage. So they are a lot more protected than you might think. Induction in long power cables is a problem, but things have to get ridiculous before surge protectors become useless.
CDs and DVDs would be fine though
We can forecast solar flares with enough lead time to allow the crew of the ISS to return to Earth.
I like how they still use Comic Sans in 1859.
Funny, this does look like Comic Sans. Any reasonable explanation for this? I can only imagine that the text was added onto the digital image recently.
This event was mentioned on the Nova show Secrets of the Sun, which aired a few days ago: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/space/secrets-sun.html
In the 1950s, SF writer Murray Leinster already had the idea of drawing energy from the ionosphere (for spacecraft 'landing grids').
Scientific American in 1974 had an Amateur Scientist article about electrostatic motors, which are powered by atmospheric electricity. (And how many times in history has a curiosity led on to something with rather more tangible benefits...? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeolipile))
And recent experiments with lasers demonstrate that it is possible to open up a channel of ionized air to direct lightning (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21328584.200-lightning...).
All that free electricity above us, wasted on pretty colored lights... ;-)