We are not in a post-PC era(techerator.com)
techerator.com
We are not in a post-PC era
http://www.techerator.com/2012/03/4-reasons-why-we-are-not-in-a-post-pc-age/
7 comments
Since More's Law stalled there is no incentive to buy a new PC / Laptop these days. So the industry had to invent new form factors to sell new devices.
It is not a Post PC age it is a Post PC growth age.
That does not mean nobody is using real computers, only nobody is buying them because the old one is good enough.
Jobs himself had a good analogy, cars vs. trucks:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html
"When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular. "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them."
For the office, and content-creation in general, you'll still need PCs, but for content consumption in the home, tablets are good enough for most purposes, just like a truck is overkill for say, a run to the grocery store or dropping the kids off at school.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html
"When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular. "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them."
For the office, and content-creation in general, you'll still need PCs, but for content consumption in the home, tablets are good enough for most purposes, just like a truck is overkill for say, a run to the grocery store or dropping the kids off at school.
Post PC = Post Industrial. PCs, just like heavy industries, aren't going anywhere, but tablets, smartphones and (finally, yes!) wearable glasses, just like the service industry, are going to be the next thing to grow exponentially...
Sure, I guess we aren't in a post-PC era. Yet.
I don't even own a tablet of any kind, but the reasons the author gives for dismissing them are extremely short-sighted.
The reason people still use PCs for email, office applications, and graphics applications has absolutely nothing to do with how suited tablets are to those domains, and everything to do with market inertia. It takes time to convert to a new system of doing anything. As more and more people move to tablets, you can expect all of the author's points to change overnight.
There are plenty of office applications for iOS and Android. Off the top of my head, I know that much of the iWork suite and Google Docs both have native apps for their respective OSes, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to find Microsoft Office on WP7. As people start to use these more at home, they'll slowly start to creep into offices as well. I don't know if Photoshop (or anything like it) exists on a mobile OS, but the Photoshop interface seems like it would translate almost perfectly to a touchscreen. Again, as more people start to use it, more offices will start to use it.
Games like World of Warcraft and Skyrim are targeted towards the PCs because that's where the hardcore gamers are. But games like Angry Birds and Cut the Rope are on tablets because that's where everyone else is. But as hardcore gamers move to tablets, game studios will start building their games for mobile OSes. John Carmack has already moved Id in this direction, releasing their latest game on iOS, and it's only a matter of time before others follow suit.
Ergonomics are almost a non-issue. Almost every tablet owner I've ever seen has a stand of some sort or another, and many who do serious work also have a keyboard.
Which brings us to his last point that a tablet with a keyboard is "basically a desktop". This is about as useful as saying that a mobile phone with a bluetooth headset is just a phone. That hasn't stopped bluetooth headsets or mobile phones from selling like crazy, and the same can be said for tablets and keyboards.
I doubt the computer is going to leave wholesale, but I think it's crazy to believe that tablets won't start taking huge chunks out of their market share within just a few short years.
I don't even own a tablet of any kind, but the reasons the author gives for dismissing them are extremely short-sighted.
The reason people still use PCs for email, office applications, and graphics applications has absolutely nothing to do with how suited tablets are to those domains, and everything to do with market inertia. It takes time to convert to a new system of doing anything. As more and more people move to tablets, you can expect all of the author's points to change overnight.
There are plenty of office applications for iOS and Android. Off the top of my head, I know that much of the iWork suite and Google Docs both have native apps for their respective OSes, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to find Microsoft Office on WP7. As people start to use these more at home, they'll slowly start to creep into offices as well. I don't know if Photoshop (or anything like it) exists on a mobile OS, but the Photoshop interface seems like it would translate almost perfectly to a touchscreen. Again, as more people start to use it, more offices will start to use it.
Games like World of Warcraft and Skyrim are targeted towards the PCs because that's where the hardcore gamers are. But games like Angry Birds and Cut the Rope are on tablets because that's where everyone else is. But as hardcore gamers move to tablets, game studios will start building their games for mobile OSes. John Carmack has already moved Id in this direction, releasing their latest game on iOS, and it's only a matter of time before others follow suit.
Ergonomics are almost a non-issue. Almost every tablet owner I've ever seen has a stand of some sort or another, and many who do serious work also have a keyboard.
Which brings us to his last point that a tablet with a keyboard is "basically a desktop". This is about as useful as saying that a mobile phone with a bluetooth headset is just a phone. That hasn't stopped bluetooth headsets or mobile phones from selling like crazy, and the same can be said for tablets and keyboards.
I doubt the computer is going to leave wholesale, but I think it's crazy to believe that tablets won't start taking huge chunks out of their market share within just a few short years.
"Microsoft trained consultant" the first question I would ask is for him to explain Windows 8 and the metro interface? It seems that even Microsoft sees where things are headed and is making changes to stay relevant post "PC". Let's be clear, no one thinks that PCs (desktops, laptops) are going to die overnight however the market will not see the growth it had in the past. For the time being there will be a place for traditional desktops and laptops however the need for them in the average users home is quickly fading.
Posted from my iPad.
Posted from my iPad.
His gaming examples are pretty weak. Outside of World of Warcraft, all of the games he mentioned were played by more players on console than they were on PC. He even says "Phones and tablets now have power and graphical grunt to rival dedicated consoles." Then again, he might consider consoles to be PCs, or part of the "PC era."
I always assumed post PC meant there was also some kind of console or set top box in the house for things people want to experience in there living room, and it didn't mean only phones and tablets.
I always assumed post PC meant there was also some kind of console or set top box in the house for things people want to experience in there living room, and it didn't mean only phones and tablets.
Clueless.