What Will Replace The Internet? (2000)(time.com)
time.com
What Will Replace The Internet? (2000)
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,997263,00.html
10 comments
Yup. I used to read Time Magazine all the time when I was in my teens... then I picked it up recently and I'm like "was I an idiot when I was a kid?" But I think it's really that Time Magazine became trash at some point...
Your comment reminded me of an Onion piece on TIME:
"TIME Announces New Version Of Magazine Aimed At Adults"
http://www.theonion.com/video/time-announces-new-version-of-... (launches video, video was proceeded by an advertisement)
"TIME Announces New Version Of Magazine Aimed At Adults"
http://www.theonion.com/video/time-announces-new-version-of-... (launches video, video was proceeded by an advertisement)
Sometimes The Onion hits the nail on the head so accurately it's painful, this is one of those times.
The Daily Show addressed the yawning gap between the credibility of the US and international editions of Time in the past week or so.
Daily Show: http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-february-14-2012/time-...
US vs. other magazine covers: http://imgur.com/gallery/W2Y5u
US vs. other magazine covers: http://imgur.com/gallery/W2Y5u
The Australian edition is still pretty good.
It seems eerily accurate. Some quotes that caught my eye.
>Equipped with radio links, a pda can serve as an appliance-control remote, a digital wallet, a cell phone, an identity badge, an e-mail station, a digital book, a pager and perhaps even a digital camera <- iOS/Android
>One can imagine driving in the car, asking our WIDGET [Smartphone] for the name of the nearest Thai restaurant, getting an answer, asking for reservations and then for directions.<- Siri
>Privacy will come at a premium. Enormous quantities of data about our daily affairs will flow across the Internet, working to make our lives easier. Despite our penchant for giving up privacy in exchange for convenience, our experiences online may make us yearn for the anonymity of the past.<- Facebook etc.
>Equipped with radio links, a pda can serve as an appliance-control remote, a digital wallet, a cell phone, an identity badge, an e-mail station, a digital book, a pager and perhaps even a digital camera <- iOS/Android
>One can imagine driving in the car, asking our WIDGET [Smartphone] for the name of the nearest Thai restaurant, getting an answer, asking for reservations and then for directions.<- Siri
>Privacy will come at a premium. Enormous quantities of data about our daily affairs will flow across the Internet, working to make our lives easier. Despite our penchant for giving up privacy in exchange for convenience, our experiences online may make us yearn for the anonymity of the past.<- Facebook etc.
> programmable devices will become so cheap that we will embed them in the cardboard boxes into which we put other things for storage or shipping. These passive "computers" will be activated as they pass sensors and will be able to both emit and absorb information <- RFID
But some of it's so accurate I wonder if they're being a bit cheeky and describing what was bleeding edge at time of publication in slightly vague terms, then if it catches on they seem visionary further down the line?
Like if I was to have predicted when I first saw eInk at a science museum that one day we'll be instantly buying and reading books on low powered wireless devices. Well yeah, I've just seen eInk! It's only visionary if I predict it before I see the early prototypes.
For example, RFID has been around since at least the 1980s, so it doesn't seem that impressive that Vint predicted its rise in 2000.
But some of it's so accurate I wonder if they're being a bit cheeky and describing what was bleeding edge at time of publication in slightly vague terms, then if it catches on they seem visionary further down the line?
Like if I was to have predicted when I first saw eInk at a science museum that one day we'll be instantly buying and reading books on low powered wireless devices. Well yeah, I've just seen eInk! It's only visionary if I predict it before I see the early prototypes.
For example, RFID has been around since at least the 1980s, so it doesn't seem that impressive that Vint predicted its rise in 2000.
The by line explains why the article feels so spot on: "Vinton Cerf". The big glaring mistake is that we call "WIDGETs" Smartphones.
I came here to write just that. The only predictions I am sceptical about (more hoping against hope) are nanoscale atomically precise manufacturing and an interplanetary backbone. I've heard Vint Cerf talk about that interplanetary network before and although I hope I am wrong, I don't think the economic incentives will be aligned to make ventures into space worth taking by 2020. As for nanoscale that one is a free variable like nuclear fusion power, and superhuman AI. They all seem like they are missing a key that when unlocked will just lead to a cascade of progress. I predict synthetic biology to be a precursor to a lot of what nanomachines will be good for.
Although the name (and acronym ) WIDGET is as silly as Smartphone. He wasn't wrong in that.
In the short term, the answer is "more better internet". It’s entrenched, so it must improve while maintaining compatibility.
what replaces cars on roads? – this is another entrenched set of interlocking technologies, so there’s a lot of value in improving the cars and the roads. Even electric cars on smart roads isn't a breaking change.
Likewise, HTML5 over SPDY over 4G mobile isn't a breaking change to the whole idea of "internet", which was once NNTP, POP and HTML1-over-HTTP, all over ethernet cable, it's just a set of evolutionary upgrades.
what replaces cars on roads? – this is another entrenched set of interlocking technologies, so there’s a lot of value in improving the cars and the roads. Even electric cars on smart roads isn't a breaking change.
Likewise, HTML5 over SPDY over 4G mobile isn't a breaking change to the whole idea of "internet", which was once NNTP, POP and HTML1-over-HTTP, all over ethernet cable, it's just a set of evolutionary upgrades.
The Matrix.
No really. Some form of "The Matrix". Think about it. Look at our world. All the land has already been claimed. There's no where new left to go to. If society wanted to start over and try out a new government that's next to impossible without serious bloodshed because there's no land left to escape to and settle on. You have to take it from someone else. Just look at the Palistinian/Israeli conflict. Ownership over one little strip of land has caused so much bloodshed and destroyed so many lives. On top of that, all the good spots have already been taken (fertile land). But with virtual reality you can simulate all of these things.
In it's current form "second life" is a sad representation of virtual reality because of a lack of advancement in the underlying technology. The way we build worlds, the limitation of their size, the way we render 3D environments, the way we allow people to control their limited actions in that world are all very pathetic at the moment.
But looking at brain wave readers, simulators, contact lens displays. In the future Virtual Reality will be the ultimate escape. Look at how desperate people are to escape reality already. They drink themselves to near death, LSD, Weed, hallucinogens, meth, anti-depressants. People are so desperate to escape the pain of reality that they are even willing to self destruct and put themselves in deliberate harm. So if you can make a way for people to fulfill their dreams safely, you've hit gold. Better than gold actually. Hope. Happiness. Life. What every human being wants. Fuck the gold. You can bypass it.
No really. Some form of "The Matrix". Think about it. Look at our world. All the land has already been claimed. There's no where new left to go to. If society wanted to start over and try out a new government that's next to impossible without serious bloodshed because there's no land left to escape to and settle on. You have to take it from someone else. Just look at the Palistinian/Israeli conflict. Ownership over one little strip of land has caused so much bloodshed and destroyed so many lives. On top of that, all the good spots have already been taken (fertile land). But with virtual reality you can simulate all of these things.
In it's current form "second life" is a sad representation of virtual reality because of a lack of advancement in the underlying technology. The way we build worlds, the limitation of their size, the way we render 3D environments, the way we allow people to control their limited actions in that world are all very pathetic at the moment.
But looking at brain wave readers, simulators, contact lens displays. In the future Virtual Reality will be the ultimate escape. Look at how desperate people are to escape reality already. They drink themselves to near death, LSD, Weed, hallucinogens, meth, anti-depressants. People are so desperate to escape the pain of reality that they are even willing to self destruct and put themselves in deliberate harm. So if you can make a way for people to fulfill their dreams safely, you've hit gold. Better than gold actually. Hope. Happiness. Life. What every human being wants. Fuck the gold. You can bypass it.
I think worrying about the realism of VR misses the mark. We know that we can create a thoroughly compelling virtual universe with black-and-white text on paper. Graphics are relatively unimportant; intelligent people have spent years of their life staring at Dwarf Fortress. Before that it was Dungeons and Dragons. I'm sure I'm not alone in the opinion that the most groundbreaking gaming experience to date is not a Battlefield, Elder Scrolls or Mass Effect game, but Minecraft with a hi-res texture pack. [0]
The only thing missing is the same thing that has always been missing, and the only real reason that hallucinogens or opiates don't fill this hole already: Some kind of meaningful connection to the real world. Sure, play around with your brain interfaces or augmented reality displays, but don't expect that to be your revolution-- as soon as somebody builds the most trivial Minecraft server mod that means you can create enough real-world value to feed and house yourself just by playing the game, that will become the sole activity of several hundred million people at least.
Although I expect they'll find what superstars and drug addicts alike have long since realized: in the long run, having all of your dreams fulfilled, just like regular life, evens out to about "Meh."
[0] Which will blow your mind, if you haven't seen it. ex. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raR9kd0fGuY
The only thing missing is the same thing that has always been missing, and the only real reason that hallucinogens or opiates don't fill this hole already: Some kind of meaningful connection to the real world. Sure, play around with your brain interfaces or augmented reality displays, but don't expect that to be your revolution-- as soon as somebody builds the most trivial Minecraft server mod that means you can create enough real-world value to feed and house yourself just by playing the game, that will become the sole activity of several hundred million people at least.
Although I expect they'll find what superstars and drug addicts alike have long since realized: in the long run, having all of your dreams fulfilled, just like regular life, evens out to about "Meh."
[0] Which will blow your mind, if you haven't seen it. ex. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raR9kd0fGuY
I wonder if ultra-realistic VR would be easier or harder to achieve than colonizing the sea.
Hmmmmm. VR would be less risky and less maintenance, it would be more software based rather than hardware and construction based. So I'd guess the ultra-realistic VR would be easier.
Apparently full digitization of surrounding world is unavoidable. And digitization nowadays of course means internetization and wi-fiization. Pardon me for new terms but I can assure you they are unavoidable too :)
Digital gadgets industry just started to grow couple decades ago and imagine what will be around us 50 years from now. We constantly improving stuff and trying to modernize things by digitizing them.
I wonder how soon I'll see knife with meat thermometer build-in into its handle displaying temperature on electronic LED monitor and listening voice commands in order to confirm medium-well temperature on some cooking server via wi-fi.
Ideas are endless, it's execution of those ideas that hold us down.
We need more startups around!
The ability of the author to predict the future of technology is spot on. Makes me shudder to think about what will be written when we're all 90 year old men. What science / technological wonders we'll never see.
I wonder what the most accurate current 20 year prediction of technology is. Anyone want to hazard an attempt?
I was impressed with Vernor Vinge's novel _Rainbows End_ set around the late 2020s or so. Big deals included augmented reality with wearable interfaces, robots and ubiquitous computing, social software, biotech, and some brain hacking. And Hollywood and the national security state basically winning the fight against Turing machines.
(It was published 5 years ago.)
My own guess is we'll see game-changing nanotech sooner than most people think.
(It was published 5 years ago.)
My own guess is we'll see game-changing nanotech sooner than most people think.
[deleted]
He is on the right track as of 2012.
Edit: Accidentally put 2011.
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I think that the self-imposed infantilization of the average consumer is the biggest trend that I didn't see coming until it was here.