Rule of Succession – Estimating true probabilities with few samples(en.wikipedia.org)
en.wikipedia.org
Rule of Succession – Estimating true probabilities with few samples
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession
This biases the result toward 0 or 1. Instead, you can bias toward .5 if you know that both sides of a binary outcome are possible: ( num_interesting_event + 1 ) / ( total_measurements + 2)
At 0 measurements, your probability is .5 based on the rule of succession instead of 0, 1, or undefined. Further measurements effectively iterate on this initial fair guess.