YouNoodle Is A Terrible Idea(altgate.com)
altgate.com
YouNoodle Is A Terrible Idea
http://www.altgate.com/blog/2008/08/younoodle-is-a.html
8 comments
Hey guys, Sam from YouNoodle here. The research and development project behind this was the biggest of its kind ever conducted. If you want to learn more about predictive analytics you can read some of the well-informed recent articles about Startup Predictor.
Harvard Business Publishing: http://discussionleader.hbsp.com/anthony/2008/08/younoodle_i...
The Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/...
American National Public Radio: http://tinyurl.com/625gva
Venture Beat: http://venturebeat.com/2008/08/07/younoodles-startup-predict...
We are listening to your privacy concerns and will be making changes to how we convey our measures to protect you. Realize you're giving us sensitive information and we take our role in handling that very seriously. Appreciate any further comments or feedback you guys provide as we are iterating fast on this.
Harvard Business Publishing: http://discussionleader.hbsp.com/anthony/2008/08/younoodle_i...
The Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/...
American National Public Radio: http://tinyurl.com/625gva
Venture Beat: http://venturebeat.com/2008/08/07/younoodles-startup-predict...
We are listening to your privacy concerns and will be making changes to how we convey our measures to protect you. Realize you're giving us sensitive information and we take our role in handling that very seriously. Appreciate any further comments or feedback you guys provide as we are iterating fast on this.
From the Harvard Business Publishing Article:
> "Before the 1950s, lending depended on the wisdom and judgment of loan officers. Then, a company called Fair Isaac developed a way to use four simple variables to develop a credit score that reliably predicted the risk of lending to an individual."
That is a very misleading analogy. YouNoodle is not the present-day analog of Fair Issac. This goes back to the idea that while it's very difficult to predict random events individually, you can predict them well in aggreggate. Fair Issac isn't really betting on customer X defaulting on a loan -- they're really betting on a thousand customers like X. Same with insurance premiums. A model won't be a great predictor of one person, but if you have hundreds of thousands of customers, you can have a much more accurate estimate. This is the law of large numbers. For a simpler example, you wouldn't want to bet on the outcome of a single coin toss, but it's a pretty safe bet that if you toss a (fair) coin a million times, the heads percentage will be very close to 50%.
Fair Issac played the game by lending to lots of customers. YouNoodle is trying to play this game for each individual case. They're bold enough to mathematically estimate the value of one individual startup, and say that they have some confidence in it. It's the analog of making a loan to 1 person, insuring 1 person, or betting on a single coin flip. Probability tells you this is very risky. VC don't make thousands of bets like insurers or banks do. For the bank, my individual outcome doesn't really matter to the big picture. VCs on the other hand invest in a very small number of startups - each startup matters.
> "Before the 1950s, lending depended on the wisdom and judgment of loan officers. Then, a company called Fair Isaac developed a way to use four simple variables to develop a credit score that reliably predicted the risk of lending to an individual."
That is a very misleading analogy. YouNoodle is not the present-day analog of Fair Issac. This goes back to the idea that while it's very difficult to predict random events individually, you can predict them well in aggreggate. Fair Issac isn't really betting on customer X defaulting on a loan -- they're really betting on a thousand customers like X. Same with insurance premiums. A model won't be a great predictor of one person, but if you have hundreds of thousands of customers, you can have a much more accurate estimate. This is the law of large numbers. For a simpler example, you wouldn't want to bet on the outcome of a single coin toss, but it's a pretty safe bet that if you toss a (fair) coin a million times, the heads percentage will be very close to 50%.
Fair Issac played the game by lending to lots of customers. YouNoodle is trying to play this game for each individual case. They're bold enough to mathematically estimate the value of one individual startup, and say that they have some confidence in it. It's the analog of making a loan to 1 person, insuring 1 person, or betting on a single coin flip. Probability tells you this is very risky. VC don't make thousands of bets like insurers or banks do. For the bank, my individual outcome doesn't really matter to the big picture. VCs on the other hand invest in a very small number of startups - each startup matters.
I haven't used their site, and I don't have a startup to use with it (so if this is exactly what they do then I apologize), but a tool that states "20% of startups in your industry with similar circumstances succeeded. Here are some ways you can increase your percentage." and then shows different ways that a startup could increase its chances based on the statistical data would be interesting to me as a startup founder, and I think it would be helpful to VCs and others as a pre-screening tool for their investments.
Thanks for being a part of the discussion, Sam. As a startup founder, here are my privacy concerns.
-- I'd like internal details of my startup to NEVER be released without my knowledge (including ownership breakdowns, investment amounts, number of employees, strategy/expected launch date, revenue/traffic numbers, etc.), under any circumstances - even anonymously. (If you released info on a "video startup in Minnesota", but left out the name, that would be potentially be enough to be traced back to http://zencoder.tv.)
-- If you want to use my information in the aggregate, that doesn't bother me as much, and I understand that you may use information about my company as a part of your predictions.
-- Obviously, you should take data security very seriously and go above and beyond 99% of companies in this area.
-- I should be able to cancel my account with a click of a button, and this should remove all of my private information from your system.
These would make me comfortable with YouNoodle, and if I felt certain that you'd follow these standards, I'd probably try it out.
-- I'd like internal details of my startup to NEVER be released without my knowledge (including ownership breakdowns, investment amounts, number of employees, strategy/expected launch date, revenue/traffic numbers, etc.), under any circumstances - even anonymously. (If you released info on a "video startup in Minnesota", but left out the name, that would be potentially be enough to be traced back to http://zencoder.tv.)
-- If you want to use my information in the aggregate, that doesn't bother me as much, and I understand that you may use information about my company as a part of your predictions.
-- Obviously, you should take data security very seriously and go above and beyond 99% of companies in this area.
-- I should be able to cancel my account with a click of a button, and this should remove all of my private information from your system.
These would make me comfortable with YouNoodle, and if I felt certain that you'd follow these standards, I'd probably try it out.
If you could make it a desktop application and store data locally I'm sure you'd have a lot more takers. I'm sure you want to use information from your users to improve your system -- so let people send in anonymized information (and let them see _exactly_ what's being sent and remove anything they're uncomfortable with).
I'm guessing it's unlikely you guys will do that. But if someone else does I'd be happy to try it out :-)
I'm guessing it's unlikely you guys will do that. But if someone else does I'd be happy to try it out :-)
In the same spirit, someone should take one of those iPhone "Magic 8-ball" apps and have the app upload a sound recording from the moment the iPhone is tipped around for an answer. Then you could go to a site and listen to an internet radio stream of all the questions people are asking and using the iPhone to scry about.
The giveaway is that some of the questions would be impossible to use in valuating a company. For example, how do you know the founders? And describe your product in words...
"how do you know the founders" Is a very valid question. They are trying to measure your chances of success If you don't get along with the people you have to work with your chances are greatly reduced.
If your co-founder is a child hood friend chances are you know them very well. If you just met them at the WWDC a couple months back chances are they might be an ass.
If your co-founder is a child hood friend chances are you know them very well. If you just met them at the WWDC a couple months back chances are they might be an ass.
obviously their historical data implies that as long as some people have known each for more than two years the exact number is irrelevant. So it probably doesnt matter if you ve known someone since childhood. This conclusion is derived from the options they give.
The way they actually phrase the question is, "How do you know about this startup?" (I.e., not how do the co-founders know each other.)
Even as a self-proclaimed math nerd, I'll be the first to admit that certain things just don't lend themselves well to predictive models. You can probably predict success in aggregate, but the individual cases are really tough to predict in situations where a lot of luck is involved (dating, starting a company, etc). Stop trying to find a mathematical formula for the success of a startup. It's hard to find a good one.
I think they're overestimating the valuations. Most startups' valuations will go to ZERO within 2-3 years, and yet YouNoodle tells you anyone is worth millions. I played around with their numbers: a startup that hasn't done anything yet, and that the founder is working on 2 hours/wk gets a valuation of over half a million dollars.
I think they're overestimating the valuations. Most startups' valuations will go to ZERO within 2-3 years, and yet YouNoodle tells you anyone is worth millions. I played around with their numbers: a startup that hasn't done anything yet, and that the founder is working on 2 hours/wk gets a valuation of over half a million dollars.
Aneesh, it's hard to provide an objective experience if you use fake data. Nevertheles, based on the data we analyzed, a 500k valuation was the most likely outcome for the profiles of entrepreneurs you entered, working on a startup for approx 2 hrs/week. Remember that this is a 3-year prediction and the hours is relevant to that initial timeframe pre-funding. Many of those teams will have increased their hours/week during those three years; and 500k is an indication that they are most likely to achieve an angel round within 3 years, but not much more.
> "a 500k valuation was the most likely outcome for the profiles of entrepreneurs you entered" (emphasis added)
Exactly my point. Given 100 startups with that profile, you can say with some confidence that the average outcome will be 500k. But you're ignoring the distribution! It's very risky to make the bet that one individual startup will be worth 500k.
I'm not saying you should make better predictions. I'm saying that it's a very risky game to make mathematical predictions on individual valuations at all.
Most machine-learned models aren't better than humans, they're just much, much faster than humans. It's a bold bet you're making if you're trying to be better than humans at predicting valuations. Models don't allow for intangibles like "killer sales ability" that may not be reflected in your degree or past job, but that a VC can pick up on 5 minutes after meeting you.
See my reply to Sam's post here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=272015
Edit: Someone put in the relevant numbers for WebVan or Pets.com. I think those two failed within ~3 years.
Exactly my point. Given 100 startups with that profile, you can say with some confidence that the average outcome will be 500k. But you're ignoring the distribution! It's very risky to make the bet that one individual startup will be worth 500k.
I'm not saying you should make better predictions. I'm saying that it's a very risky game to make mathematical predictions on individual valuations at all.
Most machine-learned models aren't better than humans, they're just much, much faster than humans. It's a bold bet you're making if you're trying to be better than humans at predicting valuations. Models don't allow for intangibles like "killer sales ability" that may not be reflected in your degree or past job, but that a VC can pick up on 5 minutes after meeting you.
See my reply to Sam's post here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=272015
Edit: Someone put in the relevant numbers for WebVan or Pets.com. I think those two failed within ~3 years.
This looks like the result from selection bias: did you include data from failed startups in your survey? If you tried to account for this, how did you do it?
I think that if it were this easy to predict the success of a startup, VCs would have figured this out a long time ago. Applying for funding would involve filling out a simple form of variables to be plugged into a magical equation.
I don't think that this site accounts for the high probability of FAIL inherent in any startup. Probably just assumes that the company will continue along the growth path of previous SUCCESSFUL startups that were included in their historic data.
I don't think that this site accounts for the high probability of FAIL inherent in any startup. Probably just assumes that the company will continue along the growth path of previous SUCCESSFUL startups that were included in their historic data.
I get the feeling that the startup predictor is just a marketing gimmick to garner some press and that more useful services will be coming... It's certainly not a bad way to get people to talk about their company and register on their site. If / when they do come out with a more useful service they'd likely to get some good press simply because they've already been on the blogosphere radar.
Has anyone managed to get a fail out of YouNoodle (whether for a present, past or hypothetical startup)?
100% gimmick. I wouldn't take investment from anyone who used my company's YouNoodle rating as a guide, and I doubt there are any legitimate investors who would ever do so. So what's the point? Entertainment?
I would love YouNoodle's startup predictor to work great.
Why not? It'd allow the cream to rise to the surface.
Despite the publicity surrounding startup investment, it can be really hard to secure a first meeting and at least this is another way to attract investors who would otherwise not know about, or look passed someone.
Why not? It'd allow the cream to rise to the surface.
Despite the publicity surrounding startup investment, it can be really hard to secure a first meeting and at least this is another way to attract investors who would otherwise not know about, or look passed someone.
I applied to thefunded.com at some point, and they asked for those kinds of details too. I'm not quite sure what they offer in return for all this confidential information, and actually, the fact that they ask for it and that their members have all given it kind of rules them out as a community worth belonging to, imho - full of "entrepreneurs" who are either desperate or stupid.
Would love for someone to contradict me and let me know what I've missed out on by not sending our business plan to be reviewed by unknown parties at thefunded.com.