Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence [pdf, 1998](hanson.gmu.edu)
hanson.gmu.edu
Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence [pdf, 1998]
http://hanson.gmu.edu/aigrow.pdf
4 comments
Here is a more recent article from the same author: http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economic...
I believe that we will be able to build artificially intelligent general intelligences, I'd be surprised if this happens in my lifetime, but I do believe it will happen at some point. If it does I suspect the possible outcomes are:
- Good - we end up with a society that looks like a low tech version of the Culture with AIs and humans co-existing
- Bad - See The Second Renaissance from the Animatrix
- Weird - Economics 2.0 from Accelerando
I think at this moment in time I'd probably go with "Weird" as my estimate of the most likely outcome!
- Good - we end up with a society that looks like a low tech version of the Culture with AIs and humans co-existing
- Bad - See The Second Renaissance from the Animatrix
- Weird - Economics 2.0 from Accelerando
I think at this moment in time I'd probably go with "Weird" as my estimate of the most likely outcome!
TL;DR: Computers are complimentary and competitive with human intelligence - hence wages. Initially, computers increase wages by increasing productivity, but later as computers fully replace many in the labor market - wages fall dramatically due to essentially Moore's Law.
I was expecting some graph at least...