BMW's Electric Strategy Makes No Sense(jalopnik.com)
jalopnik.com
BMW's Electric Strategy Makes No Sense
https://jalopnik.com/bmws-electric-strategy-makes-no-sense-1838996510
10 comments
> No, it didn't. They had a single, sub-brand model (the i3) that was neither technologically interesting nor performant.
The i3 didn’t exist 8 years ago. What BMW did have then, and for some time before, was essentially a test fleet of electric 3-series sedans. They had a graphic applied to the sides so you could tell it was one of them.
Those were essentially what you’re asking for, and what the article says was poised to be a sensible strategy. For whatever reason they decided to do the i sub brand instead, and that’s where there strategy makes no sense.
The i3 didn’t exist 8 years ago. What BMW did have then, and for some time before, was essentially a test fleet of electric 3-series sedans. They had a graphic applied to the sides so you could tell it was one of them.
Those were essentially what you’re asking for, and what the article says was poised to be a sensible strategy. For whatever reason they decided to do the i sub brand instead, and that’s where there strategy makes no sense.
I’m guessing guarding the quarterly vs committing to a very expensive long term strategy. Only makes sense for individual execs and shareholders short term.
I remember Tesla being heckled for how difficult it is to build cars. Only Tesla didn’t build grandpa’s cars, they did what BMW should have done - create something new, something that will always be an expensive venture.
Also, the diesel cheating probably ties in a bit here? Unsure about BMW specifically, but in general that’s what it looks like to me. Cheap and simple. No one knows about it and it will keep the diesel sales reasonable for quite a while.
All about the short term.
I remember Tesla being heckled for how difficult it is to build cars. Only Tesla didn’t build grandpa’s cars, they did what BMW should have done - create something new, something that will always be an expensive venture.
Also, the diesel cheating probably ties in a bit here? Unsure about BMW specifically, but in general that’s what it looks like to me. Cheap and simple. No one knows about it and it will keep the diesel sales reasonable for quite a while.
All about the short term.
People loved these too. The problem was that you couldn’t buy the car after the lease was up, bmw wanted them all back to destroy.
Yep, one of my friends was in the program for that. He was permitted to get a special edition i3 right when they launched in lieu of being able to buy the car off-lease.
I've had the pleasure of driving them through DriveNow (BMW's car sharing program). Fun little cars!
Maybe they wanted them back to study the parts? It's a completely new type of vehicle for them so they might have wanted real world data about the components.
Yea, that could be. At the time, the Leaf was just released, and The Tesla model S was on the verge of being delivered. To consumers, it felt like BMW wasn’t listening to their customers. We just wanted a normal car that had an electric drivetrain and reasonable range. When the i3 debuted, its styling skewed towards the Leaf/Prius. A lot of people didn’t want a car that stood out like that. I think a not-insignificant part of Tesla’s success was that the Model S looks pretty normal.
I hear you but I would like something new.
The closest concept that tickled my fancy was the Bollinger B1.
It was close but it was missing something as simple as airbags. I want a utility vehicle I can spray out with a hose, throw kayaks in, and seat 5 adults. For 30K, please?
The closest concept that tickled my fancy was the Bollinger B1.
It was close but it was missing something as simple as airbags. I want a utility vehicle I can spray out with a hose, throw kayaks in, and seat 5 adults. For 30K, please?
I'm hoping that Rivian will create a more budget vehicle at some point down the line.
I agree wholeheartedly with your “we want your car electric” line of thinking. I hate when electric cars try to look like what someone thought an electric car should look like. No one wants that.
On the other hand an IC car has a big heavy engine and compact fuel tank. An EV is the opposite so I think some experimentation is warranted.
CFRP was interesting technology. I don’t know enough about how new it was, but building it out as an industrial process at that scale was potentially quite useful.
At the time (2013) there was what? The volt, the Model S. That’s pretty much it remotely in the same class of essentially purpose built EV or partial EVs. The Model 3 was 4 years away. Of those the i3 makes a ton of sense. It was a legit good start for a electrification strategy. If BMW has kept investing in this, could they have gotten a model that was basically as good as a model 3? Maybe maybe not, but it would have been interesting to see. Would it have been better than an iPace? Most likely, the weight advantage might have added maybe a few tens of miles at least.
The point of the article is that BMW had a good start, did nothing, is now behind. And is now compounding the error by doubling down on doing nothing.
At the time (2013) there was what? The volt, the Model S. That’s pretty much it remotely in the same class of essentially purpose built EV or partial EVs. The Model 3 was 4 years away. Of those the i3 makes a ton of sense. It was a legit good start for a electrification strategy. If BMW has kept investing in this, could they have gotten a model that was basically as good as a model 3? Maybe maybe not, but it would have been interesting to see. Would it have been better than an iPace? Most likely, the weight advantage might have added maybe a few tens of miles at least.
The point of the article is that BMW had a good start, did nothing, is now behind. And is now compounding the error by doubling down on doing nothing.
The model S outsold its German equivalents 2:1. If that wasn’t a wake-up call, I don’t know what is. Are they even capable of engineering anything other than emissions-fraud software any more?
The hideous i3 was so unpopular LA dealerships were giving one away for free with each fully-loaded 3 or 4 series purchase (so they would get Corporate off their backs on i3 sales quotas).
More generally BMW’s entitled customer-hostile attitude shows with their decision to turn Apple CarPlay into a pay-forever subscription feature. No wonder their sales are
I just sold my 2013 335i, and whatever car I get next won’t be a BMW.
The hideous i3 was so unpopular LA dealerships were giving one away for free with each fully-loaded 3 or 4 series purchase (so they would get Corporate off their backs on i3 sales quotas).
More generally BMW’s entitled customer-hostile attitude shows with their decision to turn Apple CarPlay into a pay-forever subscription feature. No wonder their sales are
I just sold my 2013 335i, and whatever car I get next won’t be a BMW.
> I repeat: We don't want your "electric car", we want your car, electric.
I don't quite agree. Yes, we don't want some weird experimental electric car. And just converting a normal ICE car to electric has been a good strategy for some car companies. I have the Kia Soul EV myself, and they managed to sell it here at a very good price, and it's a very nice car. Niro and Kona are also good examples.
At the same time, Nissan Leaf has done very well as an electric-only car, and Tesla as well obviously, in their niche.
But it's obvious that for the next generation of cars, you're not going to compete unless you make a car electric from the ground up.
So we don't want just a normal car with the engines swapped out. We don't want some weird experiment either. Just something that's mostly normal, but uses the advantages of electric drivetrains to do things you can't do with ICE cars: you can have a frunk like Tesla, or you can have almost no bonnet on the car at all like Leaf or VW ID.3, you can get better interior space, you can have one-pedal driving, etc. We probably want something more aerodynamic, to improve range, even if it makes the car look a bit weird or not as masculine as some would like.
I think the VW ID range is basically the perfect strategy right now.
I don't quite agree. Yes, we don't want some weird experimental electric car. And just converting a normal ICE car to electric has been a good strategy for some car companies. I have the Kia Soul EV myself, and they managed to sell it here at a very good price, and it's a very nice car. Niro and Kona are also good examples.
At the same time, Nissan Leaf has done very well as an electric-only car, and Tesla as well obviously, in their niche.
But it's obvious that for the next generation of cars, you're not going to compete unless you make a car electric from the ground up.
So we don't want just a normal car with the engines swapped out. We don't want some weird experiment either. Just something that's mostly normal, but uses the advantages of electric drivetrains to do things you can't do with ICE cars: you can have a frunk like Tesla, or you can have almost no bonnet on the car at all like Leaf or VW ID.3, you can get better interior space, you can have one-pedal driving, etc. We probably want something more aerodynamic, to improve range, even if it makes the car look a bit weird or not as masculine as some would like.
I think the VW ID range is basically the perfect strategy right now.
"But it's obvious that for the next generation of cars, you're not going to compete unless you make a car electric from the ground up."
I agree with you that there are deep, architectural improvements (skateboard design, multi-motor AWD, etc.) that come along with a clean-sheet design.
Certainly I, as a consumer, want all of those things.
I am speaking purely on a surface level - I want a BMW 7 Series (or a Range Rover or an A8 or whatever) that has the technology of an electric car underneath. I don't want some cutesy (or space-agey) i-mobile or e-car. I don't want a distinctive, different interior. I don't want weird space-age lights and colors.
I agree with you that there are deep, architectural improvements (skateboard design, multi-motor AWD, etc.) that come along with a clean-sheet design.
Certainly I, as a consumer, want all of those things.
I am speaking purely on a surface level - I want a BMW 7 Series (or a Range Rover or an A8 or whatever) that has the technology of an electric car underneath. I don't want some cutesy (or space-agey) i-mobile or e-car. I don't want a distinctive, different interior. I don't want weird space-age lights and colors.
BMW's EV strategy makes perfect sense from a short-term perspective. Re-tooling factory lines for EV powertrains is expensive and time consuming. Coming up with a post-sales revenue model that doesn't rely on fixing/replacing ICE powertrain parts is hard. Scaling battery pack and related components production to meet potential demand for something like an electric 3-series is hard and expensive. Meanwhile, gas prices haven't shot through the roof and the overall auto market is shrinking, which is putting a lot of pressure on OEM margins.
Is it a foolish long-term strategy? Yes. Does it make sense if your goal is to maximize profits over the next three years? Absolutely.
Is it a foolish long-term strategy? Yes. Does it make sense if your goal is to maximize profits over the next three years? Absolutely.
Traditional auto manufacturers are mostly approaching EVs the same way old mobile phone makers approached smartphones. They remain convinced that ICE cars (dumbphones) and hybrids (featurephones) will remain relevant indefinitely, even when there is ample evidence that BEVs (smartphones) are the only logical path forward.
Without a dramatic change in course I don't see many of these car companies surviving another 15 years.
Without a dramatic change in course I don't see many of these car companies surviving another 15 years.
> I don't see many of these car companies surviving another 15 years
especially BMW, they are a very conservative brand. their whole culture revolves around old money, do they understand the future? do they care?
especially BMW, they are a very conservative brand. their whole culture revolves around old money, do they understand the future? do they care?
I remember reading that many of the assumptions BMW made for the i3 didn't hold true. The main design focus of the i3 was the expensive low-weight carbon-fiber body. They regretted that later when it turned out that the cars' weight didn't have that much of an impact on the efficiency.
Also, when I drove an i3, I was seriously underwhelmed. It just felt too small to be practical and didn't drive well enough to be fun. I think Tesla's strategy of starting with large, expensive vehicles make more sense. Most people who can afford an expensive car don't want a tiny car.
Also, when I drove an i3, I was seriously underwhelmed. It just felt too small to be practical and didn't drive well enough to be fun. I think Tesla's strategy of starting with large, expensive vehicles make more sense. Most people who can afford an expensive car don't want a tiny car.
Yes. The focus on weight makes perfect sense for their combustion engine cars, but they went totally overboard with it on the i3. The cost of all that carbon fibre made success impossible.
The other big mistake was the 2 gallon petrol tank on the hybrid version. They had the opportunity to have the only hybrid on the market that has no gearbox, no complicated transmission, no clutch and a decent sized battery. But nobody wants to have to stop to fill up every 50-60 miles.
The other big mistake was the 2 gallon petrol tank on the hybrid version. They had the opportunity to have the only hybrid on the market that has no gearbox, no complicated transmission, no clutch and a decent sized battery. But nobody wants to have to stop to fill up every 50-60 miles.
THe author dismisses the eletric mini out of hand.
Unlike any other electric car on the market, its cheaper than the petrol model.
That alone is far more disruptive than anything else. I accept that a lack of high end electric is bad, but not end of the world.
Unlike any other electric car on the market, its cheaper than the petrol model.
That alone is far more disruptive than anything else. I accept that a lack of high end electric is bad, but not end of the world.
Is the electric mini cheaper than the standard 3 door hatch? The only price points I'm seeing are £16195 for petrol [1] and £24400 after UK incentives for the BEV [2].
[1]:https://www.mini.co.uk/en_GB/home/range/mini-3-door-hatch.ht... [2]:https://www.mini.co.uk/en_GB/home/range/mini-electric.html
[1]:https://www.mini.co.uk/en_GB/home/range/mini-3-door-hatch.ht... [2]:https://www.mini.co.uk/en_GB/home/range/mini-electric.html
It’s only cheaper if you compare it to the high end Cooper. It’s an exercise in positioning for BMW.
None of the EV strategies make sense from a CO2 emissions point of view, because producing batteries already emits the equivalent of driving the same petrol car for 80000 to 100000km. In countries where electricity is largely carbon based (such as Germany), the EV never offsets the CO2 emissions of the petrol one during its lifetime. Only hybrids make sense: it yields the largest fuel reduction per kg of battery, while still being usable cars.
The highest estimate for battery production I can find is 17.5 tonnes of CO2 for a 100kWh battery. Most EVs have smaller batteries than that.
One liter of gas will produce about 9.3 kg of CO2 (including production and transport), so with an average fuel economy of 10.58 km/kg, you'd need to drive 20,000 km before the 100 kWh EV makes up for its battery. That's a little less than the average American drives in a year.
One liter of gas will produce about 9.3 kg of CO2 (including production and transport), so with an average fuel economy of 10.58 km/kg, you'd need to drive 20,000 km before the 100 kWh EV makes up for its battery. That's a little less than the average American drives in a year.
I saw an ad for an electric BMW on Reddit today. The very first sentence was "forget other electric vehicles." This tells me that someone writing copy for a living was employed as a measure to somehow increase interest and sales. The only thing they could do was reference other companies that make EV's (I'm not even going to say the name of the one that everyone will automatically think of when instructed to "forget other EVs").
Interesting analysis, but I wonder if they have plans the author is not aware of.
BMW knows Tesla is eating their 3 series lunch. I’d be surprised if they had nothing up their sleeve.
BMW knows Tesla is eating their 3 series lunch. I’d be surprised if they had nothing up their sleeve.
As far as I know, no other car manufacturer has the battery production capacity Tesla has, and Tesla itself is limited by its own battery production capacity. It will take them years to catch up on that front.
> It will take them years to catch up on that front
Not really. They'll just buy batteries from battery makers like CATL, LG, SK Innovations, Panasonic, etc. as well as pursue partnerships with companies like Northvolt:
https://www.france24.com/en/20190502-asia-charge-electric-ca...
Not really. They'll just buy batteries from battery makers like CATL, LG, SK Innovations, Panasonic, etc. as well as pursue partnerships with companies like Northvolt:
https://www.france24.com/en/20190502-asia-charge-electric-ca...
This was my thought as well. Regarding modularity, batteries seem to be the easiest to deal with. I was always impressed with Tesla’s idea of laptop batteries, it essentially has not changed much. Lots of little batteries.
Serious question: Does Tesla actually have that capacity, though? My understanding (which may be wrong) is that Tesla batteries are being produced by Panasonic. The Toyota/Mazda/etc joint venture has revealed that they are going with Panasonic as well. Meanwhile the Panasonic/Tesla battery factory in South Korea has been shelved. I'm actually more than a bit curious if this will cause problems for Tesla in the near future.
BTW, in case it's not obvious, I'm not that well versed in this, so nobody should read too much into my comments. I'm really just soliciting opinions from people who know more than me.
BTW, in case it's not obvious, I'm not that well versed in this, so nobody should read too much into my comments. I'm really just soliciting opinions from people who know more than me.
EV companies are hesitant to invest into battery cell manufacturers because if they don't get an exclusive deal then they end up funding their competitors. Tesla probably solves this dilemma by leasing floor space to Panasonic inside the Gigafactories. Tesla will always be the highest paying customer because they don't have to pay shipping costs.
Panasonic was cancelling planned production increases not so long ago, have you got a link?
http://thestoreyteller.online/2019/04/25/tesla-and-panasonic...
http://thestoreyteller.online/2019/04/25/tesla-and-panasonic...
No kidding. I want to replace my aging 325i with an all electric 325e and there seems to be nothing on the horizon. I truly enjoy driving BMWs and would like to stay in the fold, but my next car will be electric.
I’m not sure that is the case, BMW have had eight consecutive years of growth. If they are suffering at all at the moment it is probably down to weak demand in China as much as anything.
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2018-global-bmw-min...
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2018-global-bmw-min...
BMW is a small car manufacturer but they will end up as SAAB or sold as brand to another company (VW) ... won't surprise me if Tesla takes over their 3 series market once they get better at mass manufacturing.|
Toyota is another odd one ... they are still dreaming that Hydrogen fuel cells is the answer ... as a layman I will be thinking Hindenberg.
Toyota is another odd one ... they are still dreaming that Hydrogen fuel cells is the answer ... as a layman I will be thinking Hindenberg.
2 million vehicles a year is small? Who's big then? Ford moved 2.5 million vehicles in 2018...
I thought there was an iX3 in the works? No mention of that.
No, it didn't. They had a single, sub-brand model (the i3) that was neither technologically interesting nor performant.
"It founded BMW i, a sub-brand to bring electrified products to its dealers"
I didn't want a cutesy little i-car. I wanted an electric 7-series. There have been three model iterations of the 7-series since the Model S was revealed ... and they have nothing to show for all of that time.
To auto makers: We don't want your electric car, we want your car, electric.
"... BMW’s current plans as reported by InsideEVs, which include keeping the 6-year-old i3 around for a few more years and canceling the i8 entirely."
The i8 was not an electric car - it was a a hybrid car with a little chainsaw engine inside that had worse performance than (I believe) even a base spec Tesla 3 series (for example).
There was never a serious strategy and there were was a single (silly) e-mobile/i-car.
I repeat: We don't want your "electric car", we want your car, electric.