Ask HN: What is your one tech prediction for 2018?
44 comments
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Apple will release a new MacBook with no screen, keyboard, trackpad or ports. Conversing with it will be like a scene from 2001.
Google will retire search and replace it with something mildly social.
Elon Musk will announce something so bizarre that only a person completely isolated from humanity could think it's a good idea.
Oracle will continue to screw its customers (this is the only one I'm certain about).
Windows revenue will decline to less than 5% of Microsoft's total revenue. On the subject of Windows, win32 will finally be retired unless you want to run your legacy apps in the cloud.
Google will retire search and replace it with something mildly social.
Elon Musk will announce something so bizarre that only a person completely isolated from humanity could think it's a good idea.
Oracle will continue to screw its customers (this is the only one I'm certain about).
Windows revenue will decline to less than 5% of Microsoft's total revenue. On the subject of Windows, win32 will finally be retired unless you want to run your legacy apps in the cloud.
Apple will release a new MacBook with no screen, keyboard, trackpad or ports. Conversing with it will be like a scene from 2001. - This is the only one I'm certain about. :)
[deleted]
"Apple will release a new MacBook with no screen, keyboard, trackpad or ports"
A Mac mini?
A Mac mini?
> Apple will release a new MacBook with no screen, keyboard, trackpad or ports. Conversing with it will be like a scene from 2001.
Dave: Open the bank app, MAC.
MAC 10000: I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that.
...
Dave: Open the bank app, MAC.
MAC 10000: I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that.
...
> Apple will release a new MacBook with no screen, keyboard, trackpad or ports.
Like a HomePod on steroids?
Like a HomePod on steroids?
what makes you think there's better alternatives than a keyboard? siri (or anything else) isn't even close replacing such a fundamental tool.
What makes you think I was being serious?
BigCo gets hacked. Everyone loses their mind for two days.
Google sunsets one of their services. And releases something that copies a service from one of their competitors but in an incredibly tone deaf way.
YouTuber does something terrible. Everyone is disgusted. Gains 10 million followers.
Apple releases an iPhone. Nothing new about it. Calls it the best/greatest iPhone to date.
Bitcoin gains x%. Loses x%. Is outlawed in country X. Regulated in country Y.
Redditors discover that reddit is not the bastion of free speech it pretends to be. They get angry and go to another site only to return the next week under a new subreddit.
I can go on.
Google sunsets one of their services. And releases something that copies a service from one of their competitors but in an incredibly tone deaf way.
YouTuber does something terrible. Everyone is disgusted. Gains 10 million followers.
Apple releases an iPhone. Nothing new about it. Calls it the best/greatest iPhone to date.
Bitcoin gains x%. Loses x%. Is outlawed in country X. Regulated in country Y.
Redditors discover that reddit is not the bastion of free speech it pretends to be. They get angry and go to another site only to return the next week under a new subreddit.
I can go on.
> Google sunsets one of their services. And releases something that copies a service from one of their competitors but in an incredibly tone deaf way.
... And releases four more video/messaging apps along with three more banking/wallet apps just in case their current properties fail.
... And releases four more video/messaging apps along with three more banking/wallet apps just in case their current properties fail.
//I can go on.
Please do
I made many of the same predictions.
//BigCo gets hacked.
this
Please do
I made many of the same predictions.
//BigCo gets hacked.
this
Rather than a doom and gloom prediction, I believe that 2018 will seem remote work growing significantly and hopefully with the benefit of bringing money and new services to towns and regions that have suffered brain/money drain over the last 50 years.
2018: Bitcoin goes full bubble. You'll have more mainstream experts implying it will hit $1M. The more technical people will pull out entirely or try out altcoins. Bitcoin has a limited window to step up their game. Possibly see ETH take over or even Bitcoin Cash.
It would either be year of the altcoin or crypto crash.
Longer term: Increased H1B restrictions and high Silicon Valley land prices would make investors look for alternative cities for early stage investments. It's unlikely this city will be in the US.
Also I foresee "startup" not being a buzzword anymore, replaced by "side project".
It would either be year of the altcoin or crypto crash.
Longer term: Increased H1B restrictions and high Silicon Valley land prices would make investors look for alternative cities for early stage investments. It's unlikely this city will be in the US.
Also I foresee "startup" not being a buzzword anymore, replaced by "side project".
Startup has been so overused at this point that has totally lost all its appeal. Anybody with a T-shirt with a logo has a startup. I once heard my landlord call her renting two of her spare rooms of her house a startup.
The other buzzwords I'd add in is "engineer" and "lab", though I don't see them going away anytime soon. Everybody's a bloody engineer, and every company is a lab. Grotesque.
The other buzzwords I'd add in is "engineer" and "lab", though I don't see them going away anytime soon. Everybody's a bloody engineer, and every company is a lab. Grotesque.
Bitcoin Cash is extremely unlikely to overtake Bitcoin, way less volume and it's losing the appeal of faster and cheaper transactions. Bitcoin has a huge chunk of the current crypto currency market and a massive lead in mind share.
You're probably right. I just heard that Stripe is using BCH and not BTC.
No love for LTC?
It's been around for a long time and nobody is using it as a currency yet. Not a lot of confidence of anyone using it as one in the future.
Year of the catastrophe.
It seems there keeps being warnings that the big happy run of things is not eternal, but these are ignored once any 'hiccup' goes away.
Perhaps war, perhaps market collapse (led by Bitcoin?), perhaps superbug, perhaps major hack of one of the FAANGs, perhaps lending collapse (again), perhaps natural disaster.
Otherwise we're going to have to find new careers for all those people displaced by AI and automation, etc!
It seems there keeps being warnings that the big happy run of things is not eternal, but these are ignored once any 'hiccup' goes away.
Perhaps war, perhaps market collapse (led by Bitcoin?), perhaps superbug, perhaps major hack of one of the FAANGs, perhaps lending collapse (again), perhaps natural disaster.
Otherwise we're going to have to find new careers for all those people displaced by AI and automation, etc!
The median home price in Seattle proper passes $1million. SF median home price passes $2million. Microsoft/google busses start to get rocks thrown at them, hire private security escorts.
I'll leave this here: https://www.cultofmac.com/523837/apple-shuttle-buses-come-re...
Facebook experiences its MySpace moment
You mean the point where everyone asks "why am I still here?"
more inequality, even greater divide between techies and other classes, just look at the streets of San Francisco, that’s where the future is headed
but instead of a dark grim place blade-runner like, it is going to at least look colorful and sanitized with pretty google logos :)
but instead of a dark grim place blade-runner like, it is going to at least look colorful and sanitized with pretty google logos :)
I predict that techies and other classes will be increasingly in the same boat as real estate prices grow beyond even high-end tech compensation. San Francisco prices out tech and becomes entirely the domain of real estate investors and the global .01%. Traffic congestion and transit crowding let up as the occupancy rate plummets. Some form of vacancy tax is passed, but it’s toothless.
Might not be this year, but within the next 5.
Might not be this year, but within the next 5.
forgot about google building a city nearby ,so probably prices will plummet which means even more companies will want to establish in sf ...
anyway , will be an interesting place with the 0.01% alongside bums...
anyway , will be an interesting place with the 0.01% alongside bums...
10,000 homes is more of a village, but ok. Prices plummeting would be great!
Meal Replacement Companies such as Soylent will continue to experience healthy growth.
Chip Manufacturers like NVDIA and AMD will continue to experience over average growth.
Meditation will grow and we will become aware of the mental health of individuals (Trump etc)
Machine learning will be the best field to be involved with.
Probability of a bad event Nuclear/Bio/AI increases.
Bezos will emerge as the best entrepreneur of all time.
Chip Manufacturers like NVDIA and AMD will continue to experience over average growth.
Meditation will grow and we will become aware of the mental health of individuals (Trump etc)
Machine learning will be the best field to be involved with.
Probability of a bad event Nuclear/Bio/AI increases.
Bezos will emerge as the best entrepreneur of all time.
This is the year where all the money sloshing around drys up with increasing interest rates, and startups need to focus on being profitable from day one (or burn up the founders savings), rather than raising money from the market. That means different products get developed.
If this happens expect layoffs from tech companies that "doing well" but keeping their profits low.
If this happens expect layoffs from tech companies that "doing well" but keeping their profits low.
During a record year of questionable ICO's (itself creating a vacuum for the non-questionable variety)?
You're definitely going against the wind with that bet.
You're definitely going against the wind with that bet.
ICOs are a different beast.
IPhone sales drop and increased dissatisfaction from people
Back off of google AMP
Duckduckgo will get notable search market
Crypto bubble burst/starting to burst
Better Adoption of EVs
Renewable energy production will increase
Realestate bubble will get bigger in big cities
possible restriction on TiO2 based coatings paints
Possible reduction in price of NAND flash/DRAM and so of SSDs and RAM
First available RISC-V based processor preview
Samsung to overtake Intel as biggest fab manufacturer
Back off of google AMP
Duckduckgo will get notable search market
Crypto bubble burst/starting to burst
Better Adoption of EVs
Renewable energy production will increase
Realestate bubble will get bigger in big cities
possible restriction on TiO2 based coatings paints
Possible reduction in price of NAND flash/DRAM and so of SSDs and RAM
First available RISC-V based processor preview
Samsung to overtake Intel as biggest fab manufacturer
Bank runs drive crypto up.
Real estate will crash (again).
Blockchain voting.
AI as political representatives.
Self-driving car advancements.
Mobile payment will increase in the U.S. (just as it already is in China).
Facebook partners with crypto to launch mobile payments.
Google partners with Disney.
Netflix acquires major U.S. studios.
Jeff Bezos cheats on his wife.
Bill Gates wins Nobel prize.
EU total collapse.
Mars space race begins.
Rise in sea-level averted by new energy sources
Real estate will crash (again).
Blockchain voting.
AI as political representatives.
Self-driving car advancements.
Mobile payment will increase in the U.S. (just as it already is in China).
Facebook partners with crypto to launch mobile payments.
Google partners with Disney.
Netflix acquires major U.S. studios.
Jeff Bezos cheats on his wife.
Bill Gates wins Nobel prize.
EU total collapse.
Mars space race begins.
Rise in sea-level averted by new energy sources
*[C-Level Role] cheats on their significant other
True center of consciousness discovered, upending AI models mimicking organic systems.
Changes ZIRP in 2018 by the Federal Reserve in the US will generate volatility in the markets.
This will shake up the tech sector a bit, and companies that are not cash flow positive will be forced to layoff tech workers.
This will shake up the tech sector a bit, and companies that are not cash flow positive will be forced to layoff tech workers.
Vested interests continue to pwn the extant Internet.
Counter-move? Create and maintain control of distinct physical layers.
Will Musk and company provide one of these? An open question, for me.
Counter-move? Create and maintain control of distinct physical layers.
Will Musk and company provide one of these? An open question, for me.
[deleted]
Kotlin becomes very popular, takes a significant part in backend development.
blockchain all the things
There will be more technology.
[deleted]
Trump is kicked out of the presidency. Spends the rest of his life as a prolific twitch streamer. He also creates a GitHub profile where he hosts a TrumpScript [1] fork and an Awesome-Me list.
Bitcoin transaction speed drops to 1TPS because of its price hike back to 20k, melting a couple of glaciers in Greenland in its way. Coinbase hasn't fixed its customer support yet.
First success in farming CRISPR potatoes in Novaya Ziemlia. Putin decides Russia needs to open a vodka destillery in Arctic by 2020 and makes it part of the Russia Forward plan.
Yandex Research starts working on blockchain for alcohol supply chains. Navalny makes a career change beginning his brief, but fruitful stint as a Blockchain Researcher Senior for the company, before pulling out a Litvinenko due to being a nasty code reviewer.
We discover that Meltdown bug can also affect sex toys. Kids grow depraved with the knowledge of what their mum had this day in her handbag.
[1] https://github.com/samshadwell/TrumpScript