"21", Movie about MIT Las Vegas Card Counters Opens Tomorrow(wired.com)
wired.com
"21", Movie about MIT Las Vegas Card Counters Opens Tomorrow
http://www.wired.com/entertainment/hollywood/news/2008/03/21_ma
18 comments
I was just reading the wikipedia entry on card counting the other day -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting -- if anybody has a passing interest in probability theory, this stuff is fascinating.
I've spent some time on card counting and it's anything but fascinating. The theory behind it is easy to grasp, and the implementation is pure drudgery. You learn a card counting system, then you crank away at it. All the big casinos know what to watch for, and if you are successful they will ask you to leave.
Poker, on the other hand, is much more difficult, and just as dependent on mathematics. Your strategies depend on who you're playing, and how they're playing against you in any particular hand. Much more fun. And with poker, you're playing against other individuals, so you don't have to worry about the house shutting you down if you're playing too well.
Poker, on the other hand, is much more difficult, and just as dependent on mathematics. Your strategies depend on who you're playing, and how they're playing against you in any particular hand. Much more fun. And with poker, you're playing against other individuals, so you don't have to worry about the house shutting you down if you're playing too well.
I agree with you that it isn't especially difficult to learn how to card count, or understand the theory behind it (it is probably very difficult to do it well in a casino, but that's a different issue).
That said, I actually do find it fascinating, mainly because of the history behind it. A lot of discoveries look simple in retrospect, but keep in mind this was a complicated game that was essentially intractable until the advent of supercomputers (early reviews of thousands of hands weren't even enough to get accurate readings on the odds).
It took a math professor from UCLA (Thorpe) with an interest in programming to really get a handle on the odds. We could all write a program to calculate basic strategy odds now, but at the time, it was very, very innovative.
While Hi-Lo and other counting systems seem pretty simple, I think it was a stroke of genius to think of this the first time. And it was another stroke of genius to use a programming language to determine exactly when the count turned the expected return in favor of the player. Add in statistical systems for bankroll management (ie., how do you use a small but positive expected return into a 99% chance of making money while keeping bankroll growth as high as possible), and you have some real sophistication considering that it hadn't been done before.
The people who did this the first time were brilliant, and personally, I think it is pretty fascinating.
That said, I actually do find it fascinating, mainly because of the history behind it. A lot of discoveries look simple in retrospect, but keep in mind this was a complicated game that was essentially intractable until the advent of supercomputers (early reviews of thousands of hands weren't even enough to get accurate readings on the odds).
It took a math professor from UCLA (Thorpe) with an interest in programming to really get a handle on the odds. We could all write a program to calculate basic strategy odds now, but at the time, it was very, very innovative.
While Hi-Lo and other counting systems seem pretty simple, I think it was a stroke of genius to think of this the first time. And it was another stroke of genius to use a programming language to determine exactly when the count turned the expected return in favor of the player. Add in statistical systems for bankroll management (ie., how do you use a small but positive expected return into a 99% chance of making money while keeping bankroll growth as high as possible), and you have some real sophistication considering that it hadn't been done before.
The people who did this the first time were brilliant, and personally, I think it is pretty fascinating.
Then it would seem like you have more than a passing interest! Which is fine too. I haven't played too much poker, I kind of missed the fad a few years ago while I was overseas... but it seems really interesting, and it gives me something else to go research ;)
The Cliff-notes version is that in black jack you have a slight statistical advantage since you know what cards have already been played. If there are lots of face cards left in the deck, then the dealer has a higher chance of busting. It's too small for a single player to make much money consistently (just a couple % advantage), but the MIT guys would have several people ("spotters") playing small hands, watching for a deck with lots of high cards left. They would signal to the "Big Players" who would come in like they owned the place, play $10K per hand and make a killing on the hot deck. Then when the cards ran out and were reshuffled, the Big Player would split and look for another hot deck at another table. This way they could multiply the gain when they found a hot deck.
"Bringing Down the House" (the book the movie was based on) was one of the best of the 100 or so books I've read in the last year.
PS How cool is it that Kevin Spacey reads Wired?
"Bringing Down the House" (the book the movie was based on) was one of the best of the 100 or so books I've read in the last year.
PS How cool is it that Kevin Spacey reads Wired?
Also good: The Eudaemonic Pie
http://books.google.com/books?id=Q9aOedEfOMMC&dq=eudaemo...
http://books.google.com/books?id=Q9aOedEfOMMC&dq=eudaemo...
I've read the book "Bringing down the house", really fascinating read. Definitely going to go to this movie!
Pft, that's nothing. ;) MIT's Edward O. Thorp wrote the book on blackjack card-counting, then he and MIT's Claude Shannon created the first wearable computer to help them beat Vegas at roulette back in 1961.
http://www1.cs.columbia.edu/graphics/courses/mobwear/resourc... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting#History_of_blackj...
http://www1.cs.columbia.edu/graphics/courses/mobwear/resourc... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting#History_of_blackj...
And after that they started a hedge fund and have been playing in the real big markets..ever since.
That (hedge funds) and all such things seem to be basically about one thing : Know of a statistical advantage that others don't know and then play mechanically with zero emotions as possible. Play for the long term, play for sensible gains/expectations and put risk-management above everything else.
[Edit] As I am thinking about this : Startups are probably a similar kind of game as well.
That (hedge funds) and all such things seem to be basically about one thing : Know of a statistical advantage that others don't know and then play mechanically with zero emotions as possible. Play for the long term, play for sensible gains/expectations and put risk-management above everything else.
[Edit] As I am thinking about this : Startups are probably a similar kind of game as well.
A student group I am a member of screened this on Tuesday for the campus. Good stuff, I liked it more than I imagined I would. I've been told it deviates somewhat from the book, which I need to pick up.
I went to a screening last week. Also enjoyed or more then I expected. It's no oscar winning movie, but definitely worth 2 hours of my time.
I've worked on professional Blackjack teams. It looks much more glamorous in the movies than it is in real life. Still, potentially making 35k in one night has its appeal.
What Ed Thorpe did was just plain genius!!!
And what 'rainman' (movie ref) did was beyond genius!
But IMO what these folks did was cheat. You can count cards as long as you do not use an external device to aid you in the counting. These folks collaborated with others to share each one's counts so as to take advantage of the system. Not that I am a big fan of the casino (or their making tons of money).
But IMO what these folks did was cheat. You can count cards as long as you do not use an external device to aid you in the counting. These folks collaborated with others to share each one's counts so as to take advantage of the system. Not that I am a big fan of the casino (or their making tons of money).
See also http://www-tech.mit.edu/V128/N12/blackjack.html for an interview with Ben Mezrich, author of "Bringing Down the House" and Jeffrey Ma, the person that Jim Sturgess' character is based on.
And here http://www-tech.mit.edu/V128/N14/sturgess.html for an interview with Jim Sturgess.
I've been out to a club with the author and his wife. I dated his wife's best friend before I met my now-wife. Ben talked about how the story came his way. Basically, it started with someone saying "You know what would make a great book..." which I thought was funny because it reminded me of "I have a great idea for a website..."
This has been down-modded twice now. That's fine, but care to explain why?
Edit: downmodding someone asking for clarification is just being a jerk.
Edit: downmodding someone asking for clarification is just being a jerk.
We pretty much stopped going to the movies about a year ago, but I think this will make a nice exception this weekend. Pass the popcorn.