How 1,600 People Went Missing from U.S. Public Lands(outsideonline.com)
outsideonline.com
How 1,600 People Went Missing from U.S. Public Lands
https://www.outsideonline.com/2164446/leave-no-trace
19 comments
I have read multiple sources over the years that her remains were found at a place that was searched numerous times. The strange thing is that a lot of these missing people cases mention the same thing - body found in a heavily searched area to the amazement of the search party. However, none of this stuff gets any press because it all sounds hokey pokey. The guy who investigates these things, David Paulides, is an ex-cop/detective. He publicly states that he has no clue how these people are disappearing and never throws out opinions in fear of ridicule and dismissal. I encourage to listen to some of his interviews on this. It's all truly fascinating.
Not to mention that once off a trail, it can be nearly impossible to see it until you're back on it.
Maybe phones should all have an emergency distress mode--a separate mode like airplane mode that conserves power and sends out an intelligently designed sequence of pings using a standard protocol, some of which encode GPS data, some try to reach a cell tower, others just try to just broadcast a ping as far as possible to get attention, maybe even an attempt to ping a satellite.
Also, make every phone a receiver/decoder of this peer-to-peer protocol (no cell tower required), so that searchers would become a swarm antenna using only the personal phones everyone already had.
You would have to have your phone, but lots of hikers and runners do, and you would have to be conscious and able to turn on the distress mode if you got in trouble, but in most cases people are, at least part of the time. There would also have to be a cost to using the system, so people wouldn't constantly do it as a prank.
This upgrade to the tech we already have could prove useful in so many ways.
Also, make every phone a receiver/decoder of this peer-to-peer protocol (no cell tower required), so that searchers would become a swarm antenna using only the personal phones everyone already had.
You would have to have your phone, but lots of hikers and runners do, and you would have to be conscious and able to turn on the distress mode if you got in trouble, but in most cases people are, at least part of the time. There would also have to be a cost to using the system, so people wouldn't constantly do it as a prank.
This upgrade to the tech we already have could prove useful in so many ways.
There is actually a standard [0] and devices that meet this standard you can buy from places like REI [1]. That will send alerts/help and get you found. They require no monthly fees, etc. You can also buy "fancy" ones like the spot [2], that don't generally meet the standard but allow you to send messages besides "EMERGENCY".
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Cospas-Sarsat_Pr....
[1] https://www.rei.com/c/personal-locator-beacons?r=c&ir=catego....
[2] http://www.findmespot.com/en/
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Cospas-Sarsat_Pr....
[1] https://www.rei.com/c/personal-locator-beacons?r=c&ir=catego....
[2] http://www.findmespot.com/en/
It's a really sad story.
But for me, the upside to this story is knowing that it is still fully possible to disappear in these places, which makes me all the more convinced these lands are worth protecting. For many, the subconscious draw of truly wild places is often that how they stand in sure counterpoint to the modality our society has adopted (i.e., so many people go the wilderness to "get away" or keep their mind off things.) Not every square inch of this world needs to be made friendly to humans, though, but I don't think everyone wants to fully accept that even if they normally pay lip service to conservation principles and the important of our national parks and wildlife refuges. So excuse me if I come across as callous, but if people don't bring their phones or come in the least prepared for their "walk in the woods," I'm not sure I quite see a problem that society needs to bend over backwards to solve.
But for me, the upside to this story is knowing that it is still fully possible to disappear in these places, which makes me all the more convinced these lands are worth protecting. For many, the subconscious draw of truly wild places is often that how they stand in sure counterpoint to the modality our society has adopted (i.e., so many people go the wilderness to "get away" or keep their mind off things.) Not every square inch of this world needs to be made friendly to humans, though, but I don't think everyone wants to fully accept that even if they normally pay lip service to conservation principles and the important of our national parks and wildlife refuges. So excuse me if I come across as callous, but if people don't bring their phones or come in the least prepared for their "walk in the woods," I'm not sure I quite see a problem that society needs to bend over backwards to solve.
Particularly not when "society" is a sparsely populated county with a low-six-figures budget for the entire sheriff's department. The dude died when he landed at the base of the cliff and his body was found a year later by a hobbyist. That means everything the county spent looking for him was completely wasted. I wonder if the family, entitled as they seemed in their grief, used any of the money they raised from donors to reimburse the county's expenses? I wonder, as well, if the hobbyist actually received the advertised $50k reward? He seems like someone who knows what's going on, so I wouldn't be surprised to find that he had split the reward with the county.
I fell while downclimbing a cliff off-trail in remote federal lands in Colorado, but landed mostly on my backpack. That fall, the night I spent finding the trail again, and walking out the next morning are some of my best memories. This wasn't a tragic death.
I fell while downclimbing a cliff off-trail in remote federal lands in Colorado, but landed mostly on my backpack. That fall, the night I spent finding the trail again, and walking out the next morning are some of my best memories. This wasn't a tragic death.
There is actually a standard [0] and devices that meet this standard you can buy from places like REI [1]. That will send alerts/help and get you found. They require no monthly fees, etc. You can also buy "fancy" ones like the spot [2], that don't generally meet the standard but allow you to send messages besides "EMERGENCY".
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Cospas-Sarsat_Pr...
[1] https://www.rei.com/c/personal-locator-beacons?r=c&ir=catego...
[2] http://www.findmespot.com/en/
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Cospas-Sarsat_Pr...
[1] https://www.rei.com/c/personal-locator-beacons?r=c&ir=catego...
[2] http://www.findmespot.com/en/
Are there statistics on how often such searches have found the missing person alive? Or even some representative cases?
I read 14ers.com, a Colorado based hiking social network. A lot of incidents are real time. Someone will be overdue several hours, then both a social network alert and formal SAR will start. I'd guess about half have happy endings. Just last week a climber of Pyramid near Aspen was overdue. He survived a 2000 foot fall and hobbled out to a joyful reception.
This week starts the spring break danger period. Invincible college newbies post nearly impossible trip plans. And I roll my eyes.
This week starts the spring break danger period. Invincible college newbies post nearly impossible trip plans. And I roll my eyes.
This hits close to home. My dad was raised in this area and I go down here quite often to escape the stresses of "city life" (live in Denver) and spend time with my parents. He tells me so many crazy stories, mostly surrounding weather. One of the most notable was a similar situation to the missing campers scenario wherein a freak, late spring snow storm dumped over two feet of snow overnight on my dad and a college buddy. They really didn't believe that they were going to make it out alive and they were making end of life plans for identification when S&R arrived. He said that he learned that he only thought he was prepared, but that event taught him to prepare even more thoroughly and to expect the unexpected. He was lucky.
Here's a map, just for reference. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1CS1dchOHf79iGj4GHdlqWHkvpx...
In fact, a just a few days after Joe (now I know is name) went missing, I was up in that general area on a solo camping trip of my own (Kerr Lake, on the map). I also spend time in the La Jara Reservoir area (in an area known as Jacob's Hill on the map). I remember how rainy that summer was and how much time I spent in my tent that long weekend. During one of the breaks in the rain, I went wandering around and was struck by how remote everything was. I was used to the remoteness of the La Jara Reservoir wilderness area, but this was on a totally different level. I've linked to a few pictures from my aforementioned trip. One is of my poor dog trapped in a tent with me at Kerr Lake. The other two are from the Conejos River, a few miles south of the Platoro Reservoir. In one you can see some of Platoro's buildings. Admittedly, this is probably about 15-20 miles north of Rainbow Trout Ranch, but the pictures were taken on my drive down the same road on which Joe and Collin were running and I would have driven past that area (2015-07-29).
The terrain, as described in this article, is imposing but tranquil. There's a fun rock formation in the area that locals call "Monkey Face" because it looks like a monkey's face from the road. Unfortunately, years of weather have eroded it so that the features are not as prominent. Unfortunately, I don't recall noticing any S&R activity. I've ridden through the canyon with my dad many times, but this was my first time driving it (37 years old) and I remember remarking to myself about how beautiful it is and how I wish that my family had retained their property in the area.
Conejos County is extremely poor. Their taxpayer base couldn't sustain a significant S&R budget even if a law enacted it. There would absolutely need to be significant federal support. As the article mentioned, the amount of wilderness in this area, both in the plains of the San Luis Valley and in the remote San Juan forest lands, would be a rough place to get lost in general. That there's simply no real budget for organized S&R exacerbates the problem. It is a nice escape, but it is no place I would want to be stranded or lost.
My heart breaks for Joe's family. I can't imagine losing my only son. How traumatic. I have further thoughts on this, but I believe reverence for their loss is a higher priority than pressing into those thoughts.
https://imgur.com/a/FZavX
Here's a map, just for reference. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1CS1dchOHf79iGj4GHdlqWHkvpx...
In fact, a just a few days after Joe (now I know is name) went missing, I was up in that general area on a solo camping trip of my own (Kerr Lake, on the map). I also spend time in the La Jara Reservoir area (in an area known as Jacob's Hill on the map). I remember how rainy that summer was and how much time I spent in my tent that long weekend. During one of the breaks in the rain, I went wandering around and was struck by how remote everything was. I was used to the remoteness of the La Jara Reservoir wilderness area, but this was on a totally different level. I've linked to a few pictures from my aforementioned trip. One is of my poor dog trapped in a tent with me at Kerr Lake. The other two are from the Conejos River, a few miles south of the Platoro Reservoir. In one you can see some of Platoro's buildings. Admittedly, this is probably about 15-20 miles north of Rainbow Trout Ranch, but the pictures were taken on my drive down the same road on which Joe and Collin were running and I would have driven past that area (2015-07-29).
The terrain, as described in this article, is imposing but tranquil. There's a fun rock formation in the area that locals call "Monkey Face" because it looks like a monkey's face from the road. Unfortunately, years of weather have eroded it so that the features are not as prominent. Unfortunately, I don't recall noticing any S&R activity. I've ridden through the canyon with my dad many times, but this was my first time driving it (37 years old) and I remember remarking to myself about how beautiful it is and how I wish that my family had retained their property in the area.
Conejos County is extremely poor. Their taxpayer base couldn't sustain a significant S&R budget even if a law enacted it. There would absolutely need to be significant federal support. As the article mentioned, the amount of wilderness in this area, both in the plains of the San Luis Valley and in the remote San Juan forest lands, would be a rough place to get lost in general. That there's simply no real budget for organized S&R exacerbates the problem. It is a nice escape, but it is no place I would want to be stranded or lost.
My heart breaks for Joe's family. I can't imagine losing my only son. How traumatic. I have further thoughts on this, but I believe reverence for their loss is a higher priority than pressing into those thoughts.
https://imgur.com/a/FZavX
Thanks for posting this, the map and photos give a better idea of the terrain, which the article failed to do.
Strange stuff happens in the wilderness. Strange beasts sighted. People disappear.
Some say that it's because what we call "reality" is, to a significant degree, conjured into being by our collective attention. So the edge of the collective (civilization or whatever) is the edge of reality.
Some say that it's because what we call "reality" is, to a significant degree, conjured into being by our collective attention. So the edge of the collective (civilization or whatever) is the edge of reality.
As an American, I am realizing more and more that the world doesn't (and never has historically) had the "Disneyland" mindset I seem to have grown up with living in the wealthiest parts of the wealthiest countries in the world.
Forget the big things like War, Hunger, and Torture - even just the personal independence (from family / society) or freedom (ability to do what you want, when you want) aspects of our nation are a strange notion to history.
Forget the big things like War, Hunger, and Torture - even just the personal independence (from family / society) or freedom (ability to do what you want, when you want) aspects of our nation are a strange notion to history.
I think vastness has a lot more to do with people not being found than anything strange.
[deleted]
Agreed. The sad but likely explanation for most of these disappearances is that they simply became lost and succumbed to elements within a few days, or injured themselves and became immobilized. When there's no one for miles and miles in any direction, you're very much on your own.
Once you get off a trail, it's very easy to get disoriented and lost, especially if you can't see major landmarks to orient yourself by.
Quite a few years ago, before smartphones and handheld GPSs, I went to take a walk from where I was staying to a relatively nearby lighthouse on the coast. I didn't take a compass with me and, as soon as I walked into some woods, I very quickly realized that I had gotten disoriented and wasn't sure which direction I had come from.
I did find my way out really quickly but it was really a "well, that was dumb" moment and a realization that if you step off a trail into the woods you could end up getting very lost very easily.
Quite a few years ago, before smartphones and handheld GPSs, I went to take a walk from where I was staying to a relatively nearby lighthouse on the coast. I didn't take a compass with me and, as soon as I walked into some woods, I very quickly realized that I had gotten disoriented and wasn't sure which direction I had come from.
I did find my way out really quickly but it was really a "well, that was dumb" moment and a realization that if you step off a trail into the woods you could end up getting very lost very easily.
There was a nature preserve at the end of my block growing up. Maybe 2x2 miles of light woods with a creek and some minor trails. I explored it regularly and often had to find my way home by walking in a straight line to the edge of the woods (where there would be recognizable streets in the town).
When I'm backcountry I always have a GPS and good maps. You can lose a trail walking 100 yards off it to check something out.
When I'm backcountry I always have a GPS and good maps. You can lose a trail walking 100 yards off it to check something out.
>often had to find my way home by walking in a straight line
Which often isn't straightforward, especially in uneven terrain. "Walking in circles" may be a cliche but it definitely happen when you don't have a distant point to lock onto.
Which often isn't straightforward, especially in uneven terrain. "Walking in circles" may be a cliche but it definitely happen when you don't have a distant point to lock onto.
There's a story by Borges based on this premise. Fortunately the world doesn't work like that, because it paints a somewhat disturbing picture.
http://art.yale.edu/file_columns/0000/0066/borges.pdf
http://art.yale.edu/file_columns/0000/0066/borges.pdf
These kinds of accounts remind me of one of the top series on the nosleep subreddit about search and rescue[0]. There are definitely paranormal embellishments to the tales, but a lot of it just plays on the possible but strange things that happen in the wilderness. It's generally well written and worth a read if you like being creeped out a bit.
[0]https://www.reddit.com/r/nosleep/comments/3iex1h/im_a_search...
[0]https://www.reddit.com/r/nosleep/comments/3iex1h/im_a_search...
Sounds like a Twilight Zone opening monologue.
I love your last stanza. I keep re-reading it.
I live out west. It isn't that hard to start going in a direction and not see anyone for days.
My brother volunteers for Search and Rescue (Search and Recover most of the time). If someone dies in the desert, because of the sage brush and other grasses, you can easily walk right past a body and not know it (assuming there is no smell)
My brother volunteers for Search and Rescue (Search and Recover most of the time). If someone dies in the desert, because of the sage brush and other grasses, you can easily walk right past a body and not know it (assuming there is no smell)
I concur. I play a lot of disc golf, and it's amazing how hard it can be to find something that is in brush and grass.
I've put down my bag while looking for discs before, walked 20 feet, turned around to go back to my bag and not been able to find it. I've seen where discs have fallen, immediately run over to the spot, and not been able to find them despite looking for nearly an hour.
You can be standing with someone, point out something on the ground to them, and they won't be able to see it until to are basically touching it.
I've done Search and Rescue training as well. What I've taken from both is that you do not want to be lost, and if you are lost you do not want to be far from where people are expecting you to be. This is in part because you want to narrow the search area, but also because people have an incredible ability to overlook things that aren't expecting.
One thing I didn't realize before I did all of this was how useless looking for a given shape is. Unless it is extremely flat, you are probably just looking for splashes of color. You would not believe the amount of color there is in the middle of a forest, or a field, etc, until you start looking for a particular color. Flowers, garbage, mottled sun, you can basically get any color you imagine out there.
I think we like to imagine we've reached a point where we can know everything we want to about our planet, and the only limiting factor is what we can focus our attention on. That's not true though. Even with effectively limitless resources, it took over a year to find Steve Fossett's body. The world is an incredibly vast place, and we are incredibly small.
I've put down my bag while looking for discs before, walked 20 feet, turned around to go back to my bag and not been able to find it. I've seen where discs have fallen, immediately run over to the spot, and not been able to find them despite looking for nearly an hour.
You can be standing with someone, point out something on the ground to them, and they won't be able to see it until to are basically touching it.
I've done Search and Rescue training as well. What I've taken from both is that you do not want to be lost, and if you are lost you do not want to be far from where people are expecting you to be. This is in part because you want to narrow the search area, but also because people have an incredible ability to overlook things that aren't expecting.
One thing I didn't realize before I did all of this was how useless looking for a given shape is. Unless it is extremely flat, you are probably just looking for splashes of color. You would not believe the amount of color there is in the middle of a forest, or a field, etc, until you start looking for a particular color. Flowers, garbage, mottled sun, you can basically get any color you imagine out there.
I think we like to imagine we've reached a point where we can know everything we want to about our planet, and the only limiting factor is what we can focus our attention on. That's not true though. Even with effectively limitless resources, it took over a year to find Steve Fossett's body. The world is an incredibly vast place, and we are incredibly small.
Looking for small things in a field requires, and promotes, a particular mindset - like you have to let your imagination run from the slightest impressions, and trust your innate powers of recognition. I sometimes go mushrooming (like John Cage, fact fans) and the funnest part of it is the battle with my own thought processes, as I attempt to turn myself into a slick mushroom-detecting machine via consciousness-dilation.
I like to think the key's not complete thoughtlessness, but rather an appreciation of the vastness the field without caring too much about any one part of it. Which is a bit wishy-washy, but forms a good basis.
I like to think the key's not complete thoughtlessness, but rather an appreciation of the vastness the field without caring too much about any one part of it. Which is a bit wishy-washy, but forms a good basis.
> I like to think the key's not complete thoughtlessness, but rather an appreciation of the vastness the field without caring too much about any one part of it. Which is a bit wishy-washy, but forms a good basis.
It's definitely a hard thing to describe, but I think you are doing a pretty good job of articulating it. It's kind of like meditation, in the sense that you need to approach it in a very structured way with an open/empty mind.
It's why Bayesian methods are so effective for searching. You first imagine all of the possibilities, and then you search for evidence that either supports or refutes them. If you are in an area and you have searched everywhere and you are convinced it is in that area, you need to consider the fact that it isn't in that area and to move on.
I can't tell you how many times I've been looking for a disc at a certain distance, thinking "it couldn't be any farther up, I can't throw that far" (or vice versa), only to walk 25 feet farther up and find my disc. Preconceived notions are the enemy of a successful search.
It's definitely a hard thing to describe, but I think you are doing a pretty good job of articulating it. It's kind of like meditation, in the sense that you need to approach it in a very structured way with an open/empty mind.
It's why Bayesian methods are so effective for searching. You first imagine all of the possibilities, and then you search for evidence that either supports or refutes them. If you are in an area and you have searched everywhere and you are convinced it is in that area, you need to consider the fact that it isn't in that area and to move on.
I can't tell you how many times I've been looking for a disc at a certain distance, thinking "it couldn't be any farther up, I can't throw that far" (or vice versa), only to walk 25 feet farther up and find my disc. Preconceived notions are the enemy of a successful search.
I was going to bring up mushrooming!
Very interesting. I've heard Morels are TOUGH to spot. I want to go next season, since I live in NJ and it's supposed to be a good area to find them.
Very interesting. I've heard Morels are TOUGH to spot. I want to go next season, since I live in NJ and it's supposed to be a good area to find them.
I'm in Michigan and it's definitely worthwhile! I suggest going with someone who knows the business until you find a few and know what you are looking for. The first time you see one, you'll start seeing them everywhere. Until you don't.
The expectation that you will or will not see them definitely messes with your head.
The expectation that you will or will not see them definitely messes with your head.
Sounds like you can benefit from one of those bluetooth lost-item finding device (e.g. Tile or TrackR).
i saw an excellent magenta/orange vest that was trying to address this.
>I've done Search and Rescue training as well. What I've taken from both is that you do not want to be lost, and if you are lost you do not want to be far from where people are expecting you to be. This is in part because you want to narrow the search area, but also because people have an incredible ability to overlook things that aren't expecting.
>One thing I didn't realize before I did all of this was how useless looking for a given shape is. Unless it is extremely flat, you are probably just looking for splashes of color. You would not believe the amount of color there is in the middle of a forest, or a field, etc, until you start looking for a particular color. Flowers, garbage, mottled sun, you can basically get any color you imagine out there.
Very true. This is the same sort of basic issue that a lot of optical illusions and magic tricks are based on. Human brains (and to some extent probably many animals in general) tend to out of necessity be a lot more sensitive to change vs static imagery and use a lot of processing shortcuts. There is so much data constantly coming in that processing all of it would be paralyzing, so a lot of the work really is throwing most of it out.
That's also why active signaling is so valuable in emergency situations. Even without touching on any sort of networked devices, tools like colored smoke flares, LED lamps/torches with a strobe feature, highly reflective metallized boPET (aka Mylar and other brands) flags or streamers light enough to have significant motion even in very minimal breeze, alarms, etc are all quite valuable because their dynamic and artificial nature makes them stand out more clearly from farther away. The problem comes with them needing at least some level of consciousness and ability to take action to deploy.
I do think there's more room still for innovation in safety equipment when it comes to automated emergency signal systems that can be linked to biomonitoring and thus respond automatically to signs of distress if the user doesn't cancel it after a given timeout. There are some products on the market right now, but the ones I'm aware of are purely electronic and depend on S&R having a receiver of the right type and/or on availability of network coverage. Satellite-based emergency signals don't seem to be practical or economic enough yet for ubiquitous usage. They both can still be incredibly valuable, but in addition it might be nice in some situations if automated deployment could be linked to non-electronic signals. For example, a compact self-contained system attachable to the top of a backpack with mylar balloon (possibly with a small strobing LED lamp), enough helium for auto-inflation, and a 100-200 ft tether that could be triggered automatically or manually. Standard mylar balloons can remain taut for a good 5 days and float for a couple weeks before losing too much lift, and the weight and cost of the basic components should be reasonable. While of limited use in certain environments like dense forest, in many areas it'd have no trouble reaching full extension. A floating bobbing reflective object (or at night lit by even a minimal LED) should be visible from a significant distance vs something on the ground but be safer and easier to deploy then trying to climb something to achieve vertical. Effective signal lifetime vs other consumables seems like it might be favorable as well. Or maybe there is something like this already?
>One thing I didn't realize before I did all of this was how useless looking for a given shape is. Unless it is extremely flat, you are probably just looking for splashes of color. You would not believe the amount of color there is in the middle of a forest, or a field, etc, until you start looking for a particular color. Flowers, garbage, mottled sun, you can basically get any color you imagine out there.
Very true. This is the same sort of basic issue that a lot of optical illusions and magic tricks are based on. Human brains (and to some extent probably many animals in general) tend to out of necessity be a lot more sensitive to change vs static imagery and use a lot of processing shortcuts. There is so much data constantly coming in that processing all of it would be paralyzing, so a lot of the work really is throwing most of it out.
That's also why active signaling is so valuable in emergency situations. Even without touching on any sort of networked devices, tools like colored smoke flares, LED lamps/torches with a strobe feature, highly reflective metallized boPET (aka Mylar and other brands) flags or streamers light enough to have significant motion even in very minimal breeze, alarms, etc are all quite valuable because their dynamic and artificial nature makes them stand out more clearly from farther away. The problem comes with them needing at least some level of consciousness and ability to take action to deploy.
I do think there's more room still for innovation in safety equipment when it comes to automated emergency signal systems that can be linked to biomonitoring and thus respond automatically to signs of distress if the user doesn't cancel it after a given timeout. There are some products on the market right now, but the ones I'm aware of are purely electronic and depend on S&R having a receiver of the right type and/or on availability of network coverage. Satellite-based emergency signals don't seem to be practical or economic enough yet for ubiquitous usage. They both can still be incredibly valuable, but in addition it might be nice in some situations if automated deployment could be linked to non-electronic signals. For example, a compact self-contained system attachable to the top of a backpack with mylar balloon (possibly with a small strobing LED lamp), enough helium for auto-inflation, and a 100-200 ft tether that could be triggered automatically or manually. Standard mylar balloons can remain taut for a good 5 days and float for a couple weeks before losing too much lift, and the weight and cost of the basic components should be reasonable. While of limited use in certain environments like dense forest, in many areas it'd have no trouble reaching full extension. A floating bobbing reflective object (or at night lit by even a minimal LED) should be visible from a significant distance vs something on the ground but be safer and easier to deploy then trying to climb something to achieve vertical. Effective signal lifetime vs other consumables seems like it might be favorable as well. Or maybe there is something like this already?
Good points all.
Honestly I think the biggest barrier to the effective use of technology in these situations is that is another thing to carry. Carrying more than you have to sucks, and I know a lot of athletes/etc who carry the bare minimum possible with them. I know people who run without their IDs, because they find them overly encumbering.
A lot of it is complacency. How much trouble can you get as an experienced person in an area you are familiar with?
The answer is obviously a lot, but there are stories of people who are otherwise extremely experienced dying in situations that should have otherwise been routine. Technology allows us to get closer to the limit, and in turn encourages risky behavior. Once we feel comfortable on that edge, we tend to take fewer precautions. (I forget the term for this, I believe it is something like risk displacement.)
A simple personal example -- I once locked myself on the roof of a high-rise in Chicago by accident. We were a few floors from the top of the building, and I wanted a breath of fresh air. The cinder block I used to hold the door open rotated and let the door close, and I had left my cellphone charging at my desk. My adrenaline spiked. I walked around the roof. I could see people at street level and in the atrium 14 stories below, but we were right next to the L, and there was no way to yell loud enough to get anyone's attention. It was a bit chilly, and I wondered if I would die of hypothermia if I was stuck on the roof overnight.
Once my adrenaline subsided a bit, I took a look at the door and realized I could jimmy it open if I had a piece of metal. Luckily I managed to find a bit of wire buried in the gravel of the built-up roof, and I was able to shim the door open.
I went back to my office a bit rattled. None of my coworkers even noticed I had been gone, though one noticed that I looked a bit cold and shaky. I have no idea how long I could have been stuck up there if I hadn't managed to shim the door.
Since then I've always made sure to keep my cellphone (which I find to be an encumbrance) on my person, and let somebody know where I'm going if at all possible. It was amazing how helpless I felt despite being literally surrounded by hundreds of thousands of people.
Honestly I think the biggest barrier to the effective use of technology in these situations is that is another thing to carry. Carrying more than you have to sucks, and I know a lot of athletes/etc who carry the bare minimum possible with them. I know people who run without their IDs, because they find them overly encumbering.
A lot of it is complacency. How much trouble can you get as an experienced person in an area you are familiar with?
The answer is obviously a lot, but there are stories of people who are otherwise extremely experienced dying in situations that should have otherwise been routine. Technology allows us to get closer to the limit, and in turn encourages risky behavior. Once we feel comfortable on that edge, we tend to take fewer precautions. (I forget the term for this, I believe it is something like risk displacement.)
A simple personal example -- I once locked myself on the roof of a high-rise in Chicago by accident. We were a few floors from the top of the building, and I wanted a breath of fresh air. The cinder block I used to hold the door open rotated and let the door close, and I had left my cellphone charging at my desk. My adrenaline spiked. I walked around the roof. I could see people at street level and in the atrium 14 stories below, but we were right next to the L, and there was no way to yell loud enough to get anyone's attention. It was a bit chilly, and I wondered if I would die of hypothermia if I was stuck on the roof overnight.
Once my adrenaline subsided a bit, I took a look at the door and realized I could jimmy it open if I had a piece of metal. Luckily I managed to find a bit of wire buried in the gravel of the built-up roof, and I was able to shim the door open.
I went back to my office a bit rattled. None of my coworkers even noticed I had been gone, though one noticed that I looked a bit cold and shaky. I have no idea how long I could have been stuck up there if I hadn't managed to shim the door.
Since then I've always made sure to keep my cellphone (which I find to be an encumbrance) on my person, and let somebody know where I'm going if at all possible. It was amazing how helpless I felt despite being literally surrounded by hundreds of thousands of people.
>Satellite-based emergency signals don't seem to be practical or economic enough yet for ubiquitous usage.
They're getting a lot closer. Certainly not ubiquitous, but I'm seriously thinking at this point that something like a Garmin inReach would make sense the next time I do a solo backpacking trip of more than a couple days.
And this is coming from someone who has tended to be opposed to having to constantly be in touch.
They're getting a lot closer. Certainly not ubiquitous, but I'm seriously thinking at this point that something like a Garmin inReach would make sense the next time I do a solo backpacking trip of more than a couple days.
And this is coming from someone who has tended to be opposed to having to constantly be in touch.
> Satellite-based emergency signals don't seem to be practical or economic enough yet for ubiquitous usage.
It's not as much a tech or time problem as it is a physics problem. Getting a signal from many Earth transmitters to a satellite receiver takes a lot of power on the transmitter side. More power by a lot than for one satellite transmitter to a bunch of Earth receivers!
It's not as much a tech or time problem as it is a physics problem. Getting a signal from many Earth transmitters to a satellite receiver takes a lot of power on the transmitter side. More power by a lot than for one satellite transmitter to a bunch of Earth receivers!
Physics isn't really an issue. Locator beacons are a thing. But they're standalone GPS size (i.e. not watches) and have subscription fees in the $100+ per year category so they're really more for people like solo hikers in remote areas etc. as opposed to the average consumer.
> Physics isn't really an issue. Locator beacons are a thing. But they're standalone GPS size (i.e. not watches) and have subscription fees in the $100+ per year category.
These caveats are caused by the physics. They're mostly batteries and antennas due to power constraints, and operating the receivers is expensive even with the tradeoffs they make.
These caveats are caused by the physics. They're mostly batteries and antennas due to power constraints, and operating the receivers is expensive even with the tradeoffs they make.
Speaking of watches, the Breitling Emergency has a built in locator beacon. Not exactly cheap though.
Interesting! It also does seem to be a little bit of an operation to activate. I suspect that for most situations where you might have a realistic need for such a device, carrying a small Garmin or SPOT isn't a big deal.
...Interior tried to build its own database to track law-enforcement actions.... The result, the Incident Management Analysis and Reporting System, is a $50 million Database to Nowhere — last year, only 14 percent of the several hundred reportable incidents were entered into it. The system is so flawed that Fish and Wildlife has said no thanks and refuses to use it.
I know, this is normal, and one shouldn't get upset. It just feels like $50M is enough resources to accomplish quite a lot, if it were properly allocated. It feels like people should be in prison for this.
I know, this is normal, and one shouldn't get upset. It just feels like $50M is enough resources to accomplish quite a lot, if it were properly allocated. It feels like people should be in prison for this.
I'm apparently a broken record today - but Jennifer Pahlka (founder of Code for America) recently did a talk at the Long Now Foundation about this topic. Huge numbers are quoted for (relatively) limited government technology initiatives, but a great deal gets wasted - or otherwise inefficiently allocated - due to how procurement rules are written.
If this topic interests you, I highly recommend that you listen to her experiences working to fix government technology creation by bringing in modern development practices.
If this topic interests you, I highly recommend that you listen to her experiences working to fix government technology creation by bringing in modern development practices.
That's contrasted with this figure:
> The Department of the Interior knows how many wolves and grizzly bears roam its wilds—can’t it keep track of visitors who disappear?
The problem is that the grizzly bears are tracked with stoichastic methods. You have 14% reported? Great if you're tracking bear populations - multiply the total tracked by 100/14, and there's your total! But for humans, you need to track 100% of them, which is a much harder problem.
> The Department of the Interior knows how many wolves and grizzly bears roam its wilds—can’t it keep track of visitors who disappear?
The problem is that the grizzly bears are tracked with stoichastic methods. You have 14% reported? Great if you're tracking bear populations - multiply the total tracked by 100/14, and there's your total! But for humans, you need to track 100% of them, which is a much harder problem.
The technology is only a tiny part of this. The much more expensive part is getting everyone that should be using the system to actually use it.
They're civil servants, not outlaw bikers. If they're told to use a new system, they'll try. If USF&WS says a system is unusable, while BLM NPS and BIA enter only 14% of what should be entered, I'm willing to believe that the system isn't usable by the users who are supposed to use it. Besides we're not talking about that many people. The whole department is only 70k employees, and less than half of those would be in the field. Let's grossly overestimate and say it cost $800 per user to print out some manual binders and tutorial DVDs. That leaves $22M left over for actually building a very-low-volume (TFA says "several hundred reportable incidents" per year) CRUD app and tying it to other relevant systems. Only, after spending that $50M, we got nothing.
Spoken like someone who has never actually done something like this.
The general problem is the people building the system don't have authority to force others to use it. Think herding cats at night.
The general problem is the people building the system don't have authority to force others to use it. Think herding cats at night.
Somebody signed off on spending $50M. If they didn't have buy-in from someone who reports to SecInt, that's another monumental screw-up.
I have built and deployed systems that lots of users used for their jobs, which were quite a bit more involved than a simple reporting CRUD, and which handled far more than a few hundred transactions a year.
I have built and deployed systems that lots of users used for their jobs, which were quite a bit more involved than a simple reporting CRUD, and which handled far more than a few hundred transactions a year.
System complexity is not what I am talking about. As soon as your talking several agency's it becomes a ridiculous mess. If you get buy in and it's a priory then everything can go really smoothly, but thinking in terms of just technical problems is a tiny park of cross agency systems.
There is nothing surprising, technological or policy relevant in this article. Although better than a previous similar HN story (see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12674976), it is just a run of the mill tabloidish Outside Magazine article
>Joe’s body was 1.7 miles as the crow flies from the ranch. Searchers had been close. In November 2015, Keller and David Van Berkum had come within several hundred yards. “I regret not searching there on the 25th of July,” Keller told me. “That’s where I wish I’d started. What part of here would take a life? It’s not the meadow on top; it’s the cliff.”
In populated areas you can skid off the road into a pond and not get found for years, if ever. When you hike even heavily travelled trails, all kinds of wildlife is just outside your range of perception along the trail. It's easy to stumble upon a bear's den, for example. Missing skiers can be 10 meters into the woods, off a marked trail, in a hole at the base of a tree.
Searching for a cold corpse in a fairly wild area is a low-odds roll of the dice, not a determination that a body isn't there. Unless you have something like a mobile phone or body heat that can be sensed at a distance, you have, at best, a well-trained dog's nose at ground level, limited by where the dog and handler can reach. Human senses have much lower odds of success.
In populated areas you can skid off the road into a pond and not get found for years, if ever. When you hike even heavily travelled trails, all kinds of wildlife is just outside your range of perception along the trail. It's easy to stumble upon a bear's den, for example. Missing skiers can be 10 meters into the woods, off a marked trail, in a hole at the base of a tree.
Searching for a cold corpse in a fairly wild area is a low-odds roll of the dice, not a determination that a body isn't there. Unless you have something like a mobile phone or body heat that can be sensed at a distance, you have, at best, a well-trained dog's nose at ground level, limited by where the dog and handler can reach. Human senses have much lower odds of success.
Completely tangential, but "faith, hope and charity" are also the 'names' of Oregon's Three Sisters mountains, more commonly referred to as South, Middle and North.
And Mount Bachelor is thus named because it stands apart from the Three Sisters. Originally, though, I think it was named Brother Mountain.
The occurrence of "sisters" geographical names is a common pattern.
The occurrence of "sisters" geographical names is a common pattern.
See also the Pima County Missing Migrants project. When a corpse is found in a desert a group of people try to identify who it used to be and inform relatives.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21029783
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01v5sq8
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21029783
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01v5sq8
I always intended to read "Missing 411" after hearing the author speak on the radio, but haven't made time for it.
Reminds me of http://www.otherhand.org/home-page/search-and-rescue/the-hun... another very compelling read.
I've read that a couple of times. His final theory seems pretty plausible. In addition to Death Valley being a huge place, no one was really thinking like a German family with no real experience of just how vast and remote much of that area is.
Of course, that search took place when their car was found months after they disappeared. No one searched for them at the time because all that was known was they hadn't returned their car and had missed their flight.
Of course, that search took place when their car was found months after they disappeared. No one searched for them at the time because all that was known was they hadn't returned their car and had missed their flight.
"he lists such recurring characteristics as dogs unable to track scents, the time (late afternoon is a popular window to vanish), and that many victims are found with clothing and footwear removed. Bodies are also discovered in previously searched areas with odd frequency, sometimes right along the trail. Children—and remains—are occasionally found improbable distances from the point last seen, in improbable terrain."
I've been hunting for 7 years and my first thoughts are that:
-Found without clothing and footwear can indicate hypothermia
-Improbable distances and terrain is not a surprise. I've felt mild panic set in when I wasn't where I was suppose to be in terms of meetup spots and felt the need to rush uphill or avoid using common sense in the moment. I've also scaled some scary terrain (I'm no rock climber or mountain goat) and I've heard stories from guys I hunt with who have done some stupid scary stuff when it comes to terrain
-The other comments read like a bad movie that tries to scare us into believing the forest is the most dangerous place in the world other than your own sidewalk, where a stranger will kidnap your kids at the most opportune moment. Most of my coworkers throughout the years all think I'm crazy when I tell them I go hiking and hunting in the forest, as they believe I'll be eaten by bears. By the way, I saw a baby black bear about 15 yards from me last season, cutest thing in the world, and so was his mother as I was walking away :)
I've been hunting for 7 years and my first thoughts are that:
-Found without clothing and footwear can indicate hypothermia
-Improbable distances and terrain is not a surprise. I've felt mild panic set in when I wasn't where I was suppose to be in terms of meetup spots and felt the need to rush uphill or avoid using common sense in the moment. I've also scaled some scary terrain (I'm no rock climber or mountain goat) and I've heard stories from guys I hunt with who have done some stupid scary stuff when it comes to terrain
-The other comments read like a bad movie that tries to scare us into believing the forest is the most dangerous place in the world other than your own sidewalk, where a stranger will kidnap your kids at the most opportune moment. Most of my coworkers throughout the years all think I'm crazy when I tell them I go hiking and hunting in the forest, as they believe I'll be eaten by bears. By the way, I saw a baby black bear about 15 yards from me last season, cutest thing in the world, and so was his mother as I was walking away :)
About a year and a half ago, I was out hunting and stopped to listen. I closed my eyes and absorbed all of the sounds around me. I got into the moment and when I opened my eyes, I had lost my bearings. I knew the area well enough that within a minute or so I deduced what was where but I didn't have that instinctive feeling of where things were. In that moment, I understood how people can get lost in unfamiliar woods.
People who live their entire lives in urban or suburban areas have no concept of just how far two miles through dense woods really is when you're on foot.
Don't ever take nature lightly, it's been killing us for a long time.
People who live their entire lives in urban or suburban areas have no concept of just how far two miles through dense woods really is when you're on foot.
Don't ever take nature lightly, it's been killing us for a long time.
I've personally experience that same feeling after closing my eyes for some time and losing my bearing. I didn't realize how important visual cues were to maintaining my internal dead reckoning, while I wasn't even moving!
All that searching and his body found only 1.7 miles from the ranch defies belief. Also the fact that he was found in the direction in which he had set out. It really sounds like the search wasn't systematically done at all.
You'd think so.
My neighbor's wife decided to go on a walk in the middle of the night. She has dementia. Last year, coldest night of the year (-20f).
Once called in, there were helicopters using infra-red imaging and dozens of people looking for her. There were dogs, there were police, there were friends, and there were firefighters.
She was found four hours later in the back of a car. She climbed into someone's car and fell asleep. The car was about 1000 or so feet away from their house, but down a driveway and out-of-sight for the most part.
She was okay, other than being very cold. She's still doing okay, but it shows that it's not super easy to find someone.
My neighbor's wife decided to go on a walk in the middle of the night. She has dementia. Last year, coldest night of the year (-20f).
Once called in, there were helicopters using infra-red imaging and dozens of people looking for her. There were dogs, there were police, there were friends, and there were firefighters.
She was found four hours later in the back of a car. She climbed into someone's car and fell asleep. The car was about 1000 or so feet away from their house, but down a driveway and out-of-sight for the most part.
She was okay, other than being very cold. She's still doing okay, but it shows that it's not super easy to find someone.
I wonder if there is any sort of protocol for this or do people make it up as they go along.
I can imagine that a spur of the moment search like that would be chaotic at the outset.
Seems like a great space for a smartphone app that could define a grid direct searchers and use GPS to track their movements.
I can imagine that a spur of the moment search like that would be chaotic at the outset.
Seems like a great space for a smartphone app that could define a grid direct searchers and use GPS to track their movements.
Yeah seems like some kind of tracking device is a requirement for people with advanced dementia. Have had a couple of friends whose grandparents have disappeared; one of them was found dead the other one...is still being looked for. Is there any reason we can't use gps tags of some sort, other than privacy concerns?
You can buy safety pendants that contain a GPS tracker hooked up to the cell network. It has an emergency button and can be located through the service's website. Some even have a speaker and mic so you can talk to an agent through it. I'm sure they could add a feature where if the pendant is a certain distance from home then have an alert go out to a list of contacts. Buy two of them for grandma if you really want to make sure that she is never not wearing one.
Apple's HealthKit/ResearchKit was extended (maybe 2 years ago?!) to include geo-fencing for basically that use case. Will try to dig up the article or github repo in a bit...
Suppose that, on average, it takes you one second to ascertain that there definitely is no body on 10m² of ground.
Then it would take 100,000 seconds to search a km². Rounding down by 15% or so, that's a full 24 hours.
A 1.7 mile radius circle has an area of 20 km² (again rounding down). So, by this extremely simple model, searching that circle would take two man-months at eight hours of searching a day, seven days a week. At ten times that speed, it still would take a week or so. Most people would get bored and move farther out before that week was over.
So, is that 10m² per person-second a good guess? I won't know, but looking around my living room, I doubt I could do double that rate there, so I (very, very tentatively) conclude it isn't completely bollocks.
There will be places where searching can be done much faster, but also ones where it is much slower, if only because navigating there is slow.
Then it would take 100,000 seconds to search a km². Rounding down by 15% or so, that's a full 24 hours.
A 1.7 mile radius circle has an area of 20 km² (again rounding down). So, by this extremely simple model, searching that circle would take two man-months at eight hours of searching a day, seven days a week. At ten times that speed, it still would take a week or so. Most people would get bored and move farther out before that week was over.
So, is that 10m² per person-second a good guess? I won't know, but looking around my living room, I doubt I could do double that rate there, so I (very, very tentatively) conclude it isn't completely bollocks.
There will be places where searching can be done much faster, but also ones where it is much slower, if only because navigating there is slow.
>A 1.7 mile radius circle...two man-months at eight hours of searching a day, seven days a week
They had 200 people that first week plus it's really an arc of a circle in the direction they set out and on one side of the river only.
>Most people would get bored and move farther out before that week was over.
That could be the problem there, that and people not searching in a systematic way. The referenced stories all seem to point to people all being found relatively close to where they set out. Maybe that needs to be pointed out to searchers. Also a grid kept of what has been searched and what not so the same ground isn't revisited over and over.
Also as was pointed out, the local sheriff was in charge and had basically no expertise in this.
They had 200 people that first week plus it's really an arc of a circle in the direction they set out and on one side of the river only.
>Most people would get bored and move farther out before that week was over.
That could be the problem there, that and people not searching in a systematic way. The referenced stories all seem to point to people all being found relatively close to where they set out. Maybe that needs to be pointed out to searchers. Also a grid kept of what has been searched and what not so the same ground isn't revisited over and over.
Also as was pointed out, the local sheriff was in charge and had basically no expertise in this.
Their plan for the run and the terrain would constrain the highest probability area quite a bit more than a circle around the ranch.
Yes, an arc of even 60 degrees looks too big
1.7 miles is a very long distance when you are lost and wandering.
True.
Assuming a flat trail and traveling in a straight line, that would be nearly 40 minutes at a comfortable walk.
Assuming a flat trail and traveling in a straight line, that would be nearly 40 minutes at a comfortable walk.
If you enjoyed this article, there's a rather deep rabbit-hole documenting the search for a German family that went missing in Death Valley about 20 years ago.
http://www.otherhand.org/home-page/search-and-rescue/the-hun...
http://www.otherhand.org/home-page/search-and-rescue/the-hun...
HN discussion about that particular story:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12019567
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12019567
Sounds like first season of True Detective
http://www.pressherald.com/2016/01/29/maine-hiker-missing-2-...