Morgan Stanley says Apple tablet killing netbooks(electronista.com)
electronista.com
Morgan Stanley says Apple tablet killing netbooks
http://www.electronista.com/articles/10/05/06/morgan.stanley.says.apple.tablet.killing.netbooks/
6 comments
This is what I predicted back when it was launched, and I got downvoted :)
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1081479
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1081479
So, did you buy Apple stock ?
Predicting the future is easy, the question is which of the various predictions is the right one, for every 'apple ipad will kill netbooks' prediction there was an opposite 'netbooks will sell in spite of ipad' prediction. Consistently being able to predict the future would be very impressive, on a one-off basis it is expected to happen about half the time in cases like this.
That said, the downvotes were entirely inappropriate.
Predicting the future is easy, the question is which of the various predictions is the right one, for every 'apple ipad will kill netbooks' prediction there was an opposite 'netbooks will sell in spite of ipad' prediction. Consistently being able to predict the future would be very impressive, on a one-off basis it is expected to happen about half the time in cases like this.
That said, the downvotes were entirely inappropriate.
The probability of making a correct prediction is only 50/50 if both outcomes are equally likely. Flipping a coin, for example. The probability that one product will reduce demand for another is essentially unknowable. That said, it's possible to make an educated guess, and based on Apple's track record, it was an easy prediction to make. Mostly, I was just surprised that others disagreed.
To me it was a toss-up at the time, and I'm still not sure about the longer term.
I'm beginning to change my opinion on it being a fad though, I've seen some real-world uses that would be hard to duplicate with other devices.
But my netbook has absolutely no competition from tablet devices (yet), it is far more useful to me.
I'm beginning to change my opinion on it being a fad though, I've seen some real-world uses that would be hard to duplicate with other devices.
But my netbook has absolutely no competition from tablet devices (yet), it is far more useful to me.
I think it is still too early to tell.
May 6, 2010
More Recent News: http://www.macnn.com/articles/10/05/25/potential.impact.stil...
More Recent News: http://www.macnn.com/articles/10/05/25/potential.impact.stil...
My wife has okayed me buying an iPad. GPS is a non-negotiable requirement so a 16 gig 3G + GPS model will hopefully be gracing our living room soon.
I fully expect it to largely replace my wife's MacBook.
Let's face it, like her, most of us just surf the web, write email and update our facebook and twitter statuses on our laptops and netbooks. This market will move to the touchpad computers.
I fully expect it to largely replace my wife's MacBook.
Let's face it, like her, most of us just surf the web, write email and update our facebook and twitter statuses on our laptops and netbooks. This market will move to the touchpad computers.
> most of us just surf the web, write email and update our facebook and twitter statuses on our laptops and netbooks.
Right. Writing email on the ipad is one of the harder things I believe (at least, without an external keyboard hooked up to it somehow), and of course we all do nothing but using facebook and twitter all day long...
Really, I think the 'most of us' may be true in a general sense, but if it is addressed to the HN audience then I think you're missing the fact that 'most of us' are probably not at all like you.
Like skinnymuch, above, and you, I browse quite a lot but I would feel like I'm looking at the web through a keyhole on an ipad. And forget about doing any cad work, electronics design, running an IDE and so on.
Basically the ipad is great, unless you're actually working. It's a media consumption device for the most part.
If media consumption is your thing, great.
Right. Writing email on the ipad is one of the harder things I believe (at least, without an external keyboard hooked up to it somehow), and of course we all do nothing but using facebook and twitter all day long...
Really, I think the 'most of us' may be true in a general sense, but if it is addressed to the HN audience then I think you're missing the fact that 'most of us' are probably not at all like you.
Like skinnymuch, above, and you, I browse quite a lot but I would feel like I'm looking at the web through a keyhole on an ipad. And forget about doing any cad work, electronics design, running an IDE and so on.
Basically the ipad is great, unless you're actually working. It's a media consumption device for the most part.
If media consumption is your thing, great.
It's a communications device, not a productivity device. That's what Macs are for. :)
"most of us" whoa there buddy, I'm sure there's a decent percentage of people at this site that do more than just that (hell I don't do any of what you say more than once a day except the first).
[deleted]
I was an independent consultant in my last life, so I get to work with a lot of companies on their technology strategies, and like most geeks, I'm the go-to guy when someone is ready to buy. In my view, what is killing netbooks is the growing sentiment that they suck. The only people I know who really like their netbook are geeks. They like them because they're able to manage the software on their netbook in the way that is necessary to extract performance from netbook-class hardware. Your normal user who runs Windows 7 with anti-virus and their usual suite of software is miserable. I've worked on plenty of netbooks ranging from the Dell Mini series to Asus Eee, and anything with an Atom processor running a full Windows stack (AV included) is painfully slow, even for basic tasks.
I just don't see where netbooks and iPads compete. The people who buy netbooks aren't willing to give up the things that the iPad lacks, and iPad purchasers aren't willing to put up with the lackluster performance of a netbook. There is some inevitable overlap, but any impact will be felt quickly, then taper off.
The netbook's future must include an operating system that is dedicated to the netbook hardware. It needs to work well on a small screen, and much like iPhone OS or Android, it must include design considerations for the hardware that it runs on. Companies like Google and Canonical are in a great position to capitalize on the growth prospects in the netbook market. The primary question is whether anyone will rise to the occasion and build a netbook that works as well as an iPad, but includes features that non-iPad buying folks consider important.