Ignoring the Wiggles(themacro.com)
themacro.com
Ignoring the Wiggles
http://themacro.com/articles/2016/02/ignoring-the-wiggles/
4 comments
The difference between long-term investors and startup founders is that no sane long-term investor puts all their money and resources into one asset.
Startup founders do not have diversification or a fallback, and it's humanly fair for them to be concerned when things are on a serious downtrend with tech stocks.
Startup founders do not have diversification or a fallback, and it's humanly fair for them to be concerned when things are on a serious downtrend with tech stocks.
A young Warren Buffett had 75% of his allocation in GEICO.
If you're certain something is going to go up in the long term, it makes sense to buy as much of it as you can. You must be certain, and you'd better be right about being certain.
A Buffett-favored aphorism: "Too much of a good thing is wonderful."
If your goal is substantially different performance from a market average, a concentrated position is the ticket. But, unless you're really good, the best you'll do, on average, is average, in which case you'd do better by buying an index.
If you're certain something is going to go up in the long term, it makes sense to buy as much of it as you can. You must be certain, and you'd better be right about being certain.
A Buffett-favored aphorism: "Too much of a good thing is wonderful."
If your goal is substantially different performance from a market average, a concentrated position is the ticket. But, unless you're really good, the best you'll do, on average, is average, in which case you'd do better by buying an index.
His GEICO investment was about more than just him believing in GEICO. It was much more brilliant than that.
Insurance companies are wonderful to own because you get access to their capital. They have tons of floating capital that's held in reserves, from premiums, until it needs to be paid out for claims.
GEICO was a perfect investment for a young Buffet because he exchanged cash (liquidity) for even more liquidity.
Insurance companies are wonderful to own because you get access to their capital. They have tons of floating capital that's held in reserves, from premiums, until it needs to be paid out for claims.
GEICO was a perfect investment for a young Buffet because he exchanged cash (liquidity) for even more liquidity.
Young Buffett didn't buy GEICO, the company. He just bought some of its stock. So he didn't get any extra liquidity.
Older Buffett bought the company.
Older Buffett bought the company.
I agree with you that it is fair to be concerned. It's also nearly impossible not to notice. I think the difference is what you do with the information and how it influences your decisions.
i was hoping this would be about the kids band - I've been ignoring them my whole life
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One of the things I'm struck by is not that the wiggles actually matter, but sentiment matters. Because it's a frequent topic of conversation, it's an easy thing to bring up, and without some knowledge and context, it's a strike against you. Does that matter to your business or your clients? No. Does it matter to the person you're talking to right then? A little. And if you're trying to get them as a customer or advisor or mentor or whatever, you're a bit more in the hole, because you chose to ignore the fact they're thinking about the wiggle. It's not important to you, but it's important to them.
So don't focus on the wiggle, but don't ignore it. Internalize what has changed, respond appropriately, and know that you can move past it.