Ask HN: What other careers will you move into when the tech bubble bursts?
I'm interested to hear what people plan on doing when the tech bubble bursts. It's only a matter of time now and if this burst is anything like the last there won't be any tech jobs for at least a couple years. So HN, what do you plan on doing? I've thought about getting into farming.
16 comments
I think you mean when the VC bubble bursts, again. Tech jobs have been around for forty or so years. That is jobs building software to solve business problems in a profitable way.
Would some of these small companies (aka startups) survive without VC funding? Look for companies that would survive regardless of the venture capital. They will be around because they have a profitable business model. These may be hard to find in SV.
Would some of these small companies (aka startups) survive without VC funding? Look for companies that would survive regardless of the venture capital. They will be around because they have a profitable business model. These may be hard to find in SV.
The tech bubble bursting doesn't mean there won't be anymore software. Software isn't going anywhere. I plan to keep right on working in tech. I've worked for farmers. It kind of sucks. I like sitting in a chair and looking at code all day.
On that topic let me tell you about farms and farmers. Most farmers are millionaires and were born that way and have only gotten richer in the last decade or so. You have to know what you are doing to turn a profit. Farms are worth a lot of money. Millions. Do you have millions? If not, you get to be some millionaire's little peon. You get to make $9 an hour. You don't get overtime. You work really hard at certain times of year... 12 hours or more a day. You have to know how to drive a tractor straight. Do you know how to drive a tractor straight? Do you know how to keep a machine maintained? Where the grease fittings are? You better grease it good before you start. Otherwise some overweight red faced drunk with 15 million dollars in assets who considers you a little peon will come out and yell at you. Heck, he might come out and yell at you anyway just for fun. Cause he thinks you are a smarty pants who thinks you are just so smart. He almost certainly isn't going to help you along. In fact, if you don't have a certain look he almost certainly isn't going to hire you in the first place.
Oh... that wasn't the type of farm you were thinking of? Maybe you were thinking of a hippie type organic farm where you could hang out and smoke weed while casually picking a few tomatoes. Well... say goodbye to your $9 an hour because you won't even be making that.
If you want to try farming go get on a crew picking chilies or something for a day. They will hire just about anybody. I've done it before. Piece-rate. Cash at the end of the day. $50 if you are lucky and you will barely be able to walk.
In short... put down the pipe. Get a grip on reality and sharpen your tech skills. The field may shrink, it definitely will change, but it isn't going anywhere. You are better off staying competitive than having dreams of getting into farming.
On that topic let me tell you about farms and farmers. Most farmers are millionaires and were born that way and have only gotten richer in the last decade or so. You have to know what you are doing to turn a profit. Farms are worth a lot of money. Millions. Do you have millions? If not, you get to be some millionaire's little peon. You get to make $9 an hour. You don't get overtime. You work really hard at certain times of year... 12 hours or more a day. You have to know how to drive a tractor straight. Do you know how to drive a tractor straight? Do you know how to keep a machine maintained? Where the grease fittings are? You better grease it good before you start. Otherwise some overweight red faced drunk with 15 million dollars in assets who considers you a little peon will come out and yell at you. Heck, he might come out and yell at you anyway just for fun. Cause he thinks you are a smarty pants who thinks you are just so smart. He almost certainly isn't going to help you along. In fact, if you don't have a certain look he almost certainly isn't going to hire you in the first place.
Oh... that wasn't the type of farm you were thinking of? Maybe you were thinking of a hippie type organic farm where you could hang out and smoke weed while casually picking a few tomatoes. Well... say goodbye to your $9 an hour because you won't even be making that.
If you want to try farming go get on a crew picking chilies or something for a day. They will hire just about anybody. I've done it before. Piece-rate. Cash at the end of the day. $50 if you are lucky and you will barely be able to walk.
In short... put down the pipe. Get a grip on reality and sharpen your tech skills. The field may shrink, it definitely will change, but it isn't going anywhere. You are better off staying competitive than having dreams of getting into farming.
I survived the dot-com crash and the great recession. I'm pretty sure I'll be fine. Software is everywhere. There are a lot of jobs outside of the startup/VC land.
Work for a sustainable business in the first place and you won't have this problem?
That's not true. Even businesses that make money will die as a result of this.
We're talking about a completely catastrophic event that puts 90% of the worlds tech sector out of work. The residual effects will be enormous.
We're talking about a completely catastrophic event that puts 90% of the worlds tech sector out of work. The residual effects will be enormous.
90% of the world's tech sector out of business? That's absurd.
Sure, if you're working on some messaging app there's a good chance your SOL, but that doesn't mean software's going the way of the dinosaur.
To put things in perspective: McKinsey just released a report that 50% of work can be automated and only 5% of work requires a moderate level of human creativity. There are still plenty of peon responsibilities to hand off to the robots.
Sure, if you're working on some messaging app there's a good chance your SOL, but that doesn't mean software's going the way of the dinosaur.
To put things in perspective: McKinsey just released a report that 50% of work can be automated and only 5% of work requires a moderate level of human creativity. There are still plenty of peon responsibilities to hand off to the robots.
Why do you not think quality startups will be effected by this? Here's a scenario for you.
A company is looking to raise a Series B. They make a lot of money. Close to $650k per month. However, they want to grow to 100 employees to tackle a new market with a new product. Without an influx of funding they just can't get there. So they try to raise a series B round. Because investors are super cold they simply aren't funding any companies (this is exactly what happened in 01). That company can't grow, they lose out, and eventually either fold or downsize.
A company is looking to raise a Series B. They make a lot of money. Close to $650k per month. However, they want to grow to 100 employees to tackle a new market with a new product. Without an influx of funding they just can't get there. So they try to raise a series B round. Because investors are super cold they simply aren't funding any companies (this is exactly what happened in 01). That company can't grow, they lose out, and eventually either fold or downsize.
Well, what do you mean by startup?
Do you mean tech companies, or tech companies designed for fast growth at a high risk, or something else?
I don't think all companies need a significant external investment to work?
If a company is designed to have very low expenses, and is still profitable, that is a thing that can happen I think.
I mean if you want to work for a farm go ahead and do that I guess, but I think that not all tech companies need to be startups in the "receives investment from speculators" sense?
Do you mean tech companies, or tech companies designed for fast growth at a high risk, or something else?
I don't think all companies need a significant external investment to work?
If a company is designed to have very low expenses, and is still profitable, that is a thing that can happen I think.
I mean if you want to work for a farm go ahead and do that I guess, but I think that not all tech companies need to be startups in the "receives investment from speculators" sense?
So they're forced to find a business model that doesn't require 100 employees. If they do, they'll be a better, stronger business for it.
The question is, what part of that $650k per month is profit? If it is revenue and no profit is there, then that is unsustainable without VC funding, right? It's simple math.
If there is some model where they need X customers and funding to get there before it is profitable, does that sound like a sound business?
If there is some model where they need X customers and funding to get there before it is profitable, does that sound like a sound business?
> Why do you not think quality startups will be effected by this?
It's very telling to me that you somehow equate "90% of tech jobs" with "startups"
It's very telling to me that you somehow equate "90% of tech jobs" with "startups"
Its interesting even with nasty instruments like the TPP not all coding goes away because good code is actually a form of good writing in English, had computers been based on say sign language things would be different but as it stands good code is good writing and writing well requires excellent English language skills. Like the for loop is not a por loop and a for loop is not a 以下のために loop lol.
Like what, global thermonuclear war?
Oh, you mean the website that doesn't actually sell anything sector. I keep forgetting that cars, radios, medical equipment, airplanes, rockets, robots etc. (all of which contain software, and are sold on websites) are no longer considered "technology".
Oh, you mean the website that doesn't actually sell anything sector. I keep forgetting that cars, radios, medical equipment, airplanes, rockets, robots etc. (all of which contain software, and are sold on websites) are no longer considered "technology".
Hear, hear!
I hope this next bubble bursting will finally kill the misnomer "tech sector" or "tech industry". Call it the website industry or telecomputer sector or something. I mean seriously, I get to work with particle accelerators and software that does Monte Carlo calculations of the way radiation moves through the human body, but that's not "tech". Those guys building hypersonic aircraft, they aren't in "tech". Doctors crafting artificial organs, that's not "high tech" at all. No, some website/app that shows ads alongside cat pictures, that's what high tech is all about.
Sadly, I think the name will probably stick until the Next Big Thing comes along, and then telecomp will stop being "high tech" just like all the other high tech industries that don't have every wannabe on the planet trying to squeeze money out of them while the getting is good.
/rant
I hope this next bubble bursting will finally kill the misnomer "tech sector" or "tech industry". Call it the website industry or telecomputer sector or something. I mean seriously, I get to work with particle accelerators and software that does Monte Carlo calculations of the way radiation moves through the human body, but that's not "tech". Those guys building hypersonic aircraft, they aren't in "tech". Doctors crafting artificial organs, that's not "high tech" at all. No, some website/app that shows ads alongside cat pictures, that's what high tech is all about.
Sadly, I think the name will probably stick until the Next Big Thing comes along, and then telecomp will stop being "high tech" just like all the other high tech industries that don't have every wannabe on the planet trying to squeeze money out of them while the getting is good.
/rant
If the tech bubble bursts in any meaningful way it's going to take a massive amount of the economy out with it. Zounds of unemployed while collar workers, tons of mortgages with unreasonable principals, and a massive amount of money on the stock market going up in smoke.
Most of that money in the stock market is "on paper" and so the losses will mostly be on paper too. The people hardest hit will be those who are recently retired or soon to retire. Young people who bought in at the top will have decades to recover. (How quickly did the S&P500 recover after 2008?) I'd worry about the knock-on effects more than your stock portfolio.
I completely agree. Most of the comments in here seem to think there will be some semblance of technology jobs left. There won't be.
Why? are computers going away or something? If that happens we have bigger problems than no jobs in the tech sector. The world has collapsed at that point. If it doesn't happen then guess what... there will be jobs in the tech sector. The may be hard to get but there will be people working them.
On the other hand, 120K a year JS developers with two years experience... there might be not so many of those sometime in the not so distant future.
On the other hand, 120K a year JS developers with two years experience... there might be not so many of those sometime in the not so distant future.
VC funded, exit strategy focussed, zero profit producing, unsustainable startups are not the only companies that have tech needs.
As has been said, skilled workers will find work elsewhere.
Overpaid junior developers who are more adept at rattling of the latest hipster buzzwords, and subsequently rewriting the same 100 line program over and over, than actually writing maintainable code, may find the unlimited flow of snacks is about to end.
As has been said, skilled workers will find work elsewhere.
Overpaid junior developers who are more adept at rattling of the latest hipster buzzwords, and subsequently rewriting the same 100 line program over and over, than actually writing maintainable code, may find the unlimited flow of snacks is about to end.
Objection, your honor. Assumes facts not in evidence.
Too much of the world is driven by technology for 2001 to ever happen again. There will always be a need for good software engineers until computers can program themselves. Think outside of the silicon valley startup echo chamber.
Realistically speaking, moving into technology as a supporting role for existing companies and governments works pretty well. That's how I rode out the last tech downturn.
Nowadays, there's still so much demand for technical skills, you should be fine as long as you can provide value. It's easier to demonstrate as an individual contributor than as a manager.
Nowadays, there's still so much demand for technical skills, you should be fine as long as you can provide value. It's easier to demonstrate as an individual contributor than as a manager.
I had no trouble finding a programming job when the last tech bubble burst. I don't expect to have a problem this time. That said, I'm doing a lot of teaching at vocational colleges.
Work for a non-IT business where IT is a support function and you'll be fine. You need to spend less time on doom-and-gloom blogs. It's bad for your health.
I don't think it will, in the same way it did last time, but assuming your point: Italian motorcycle mechanic.
Um..same thing as last time? Tech career.
There won't be one left. All of the Twitter, Uber, AirBnB engineers sitting around with no job will take the low hanging fruit working for $50k per year at your local startup. Good luck finding a job when there aren't any.
Why do you believe this? Were you around in 2000? Being a consultant was bad, but otherwise, there were still plenty of jobs for experienced folks. It's mostly the new grads and people working at unsustainable startups who got screwed,
There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept.
And all the housing on firesale... will snap that right up.
And all the housing on firesale... will snap that right up.
Why so much fear mongering? People have been saying the bubble's going to burst for years now.
Always plenty of work in Consulting.
Depends. One of the reasons Fog Creek shifted to products was that their consulting just dried up. The way it appeared to them was that the time to land new contracts was getting longer and longer. Eventually they realized there were no new contracts.
I agree, but that's all consulting\agency work. Markets change and people move on. Not sure why there are those who expect or wish for life-time employment (besides for historical\cultural reasons).
When the checkbook closes, it closes with a thud. I was around when the 2001 fiasco happened, and you have to fight for every cent if you want to consult. Everybody that lost their job after the dot com bust and Y2K, became consultants overnight.
But, there were plenty of tech jobs last time around. Why do you think there weren't any?
Were you around in 2001? I ask, because after Y2K and the dot com bust a lot of people struggle a long time to find work.
Yup. I left my job to start my own thing in about 2001, but then got a job after about half a year. My main challenge was getting into the games industry, but there seemed to be no shortage of non-games jobs.
something low stress, like trash hauling.