3-D Printer Firms Fall Flat, as Buyers Wait for New Models(on.wsj.com)
on.wsj.com
3-D Printer Firms Fall Flat, as Buyers Wait for New Models
http://on.wsj.com/1M9705T
12 comments
Even metalworking isn't so hard to get into. You can get the tools anywhere, used or new, and there's an enormous number of books on the subject. The only power tool you really need at the start is an electric drill. Hacksaw, files, punches, chisels, etc.. all powered by you. No software needed either, cover your part with a fat sharpie (or better yet, blue dye) and use a scribe and punches to mark out what you want to cut and drill.
If anyone is interested in this sort of stuff, check out Adam Savage's "One Day Builds" videos on youtube, they are great examples of the sorts of things you can do with basic tools and ingenuity.
If anyone is interested in this sort of stuff, check out Adam Savage's "One Day Builds" videos on youtube, they are great examples of the sorts of things you can do with basic tools and ingenuity.
Oh yeah. I think his "One Day Build" videos go a long way towards demystifying build process. I've seen a lot of people never start on their projects because they think the methods are inaccessible to them, for no reason other than they just don't know what the methods are.
You can see it in their eyes. They walk in the hackerspace and they have this "we're not worthy!" look on their faces. "Stop it!" I'd tell them. The place is nothing without the people in it. The space is not sacred, it is not too good for you to insert yourself.
You can see it in their eyes. They walk in the hackerspace and they have this "we're not worthy!" look on their faces. "Stop it!" I'd tell them. The place is nothing without the people in it. The space is not sacred, it is not too good for you to insert yourself.
I just built a 3D printer (Reprap Prusa i3v) so I could design and build custom parts for a hardware project I'm doing and I think that this is overly pessimistic.
I needed to print, try and tweak parts, if I ordered everything from shapeways my iterations would have been stretched out.
Here is a page I wrote about my experiences:
http://winterstartupchallenge.com/3dprinter.html
The only difficult thing was the calibration, making sure the surfaces were level etc... this could all be drastically improved with better reprap design.
Learning how to design models that could be 3D printed took some time, but now its second nature and basically comes down to not having any overhangs greater than 45 degrees.
I'm really glad I built my 3D printer and have the skillset. My ambition in life is to become what I call Master of the Intelligent Networked Machine, which is a grandiose way of saying I want to have the full skill set to design and build Internet of Things devices, from the hardware to the code.
I think its the most valuable skillset around today and 3D printing is a valuable part of the toolset.
It took me time to build the printer, but in the process I learned about the technology and I immediately saw the possibilities for using it in new and interesting ways. By seeing how a RepRap is built (commodity parts + custom home fabricated parts) it changed the way I designed and built my hardware product.
Becoming a 3D printer master builder only took a couple months and was well worth it.
I needed to print, try and tweak parts, if I ordered everything from shapeways my iterations would have been stretched out.
Here is a page I wrote about my experiences:
http://winterstartupchallenge.com/3dprinter.html
The only difficult thing was the calibration, making sure the surfaces were level etc... this could all be drastically improved with better reprap design.
Learning how to design models that could be 3D printed took some time, but now its second nature and basically comes down to not having any overhangs greater than 45 degrees.
I'm really glad I built my 3D printer and have the skillset. My ambition in life is to become what I call Master of the Intelligent Networked Machine, which is a grandiose way of saying I want to have the full skill set to design and build Internet of Things devices, from the hardware to the code.
I think its the most valuable skillset around today and 3D printing is a valuable part of the toolset.
It took me time to build the printer, but in the process I learned about the technology and I immediately saw the possibilities for using it in new and interesting ways. By seeing how a RepRap is built (commodity parts + custom home fabricated parts) it changed the way I designed and built my hardware product.
Becoming a 3D printer master builder only took a couple months and was well worth it.
> - For simple things, stick to wood-working, it's significantly easier and faster than 3D printing.
Or cardboard prototyping. Much less technology required, tools are much cheaper (glue gun, segmented knife, ruler, and a mat for cutting the cardboard), material can often be obtained at zero cost, and it's even faster to work with than wood. It can supplement woodworking (or 3D printing) really well.
Or cardboard prototyping. Much less technology required, tools are much cheaper (glue gun, segmented knife, ruler, and a mat for cutting the cardboard), material can often be obtained at zero cost, and it's even faster to work with than wood. It can supplement woodworking (or 3D printing) really well.
Sure, depends on what you're doing. For 3 years, I had a coffee table I had built out of cardboard. Nobody could tell it was cardboard until they touched it.
I disagree. it took a weekend to build my reprap from a parts kit imported from China. it took another weekend to tune it. easy.
I would say you are very lucky. I used to work out of a hackerspace and got to see a lot of traffic come through with 3D printers. We also had several of our own. The only ones that worked reliably were the ones built and operated by a guy who was doing a PhD, studying the use of 3D printers in medicine. That was RepRaps, MakerBots, PrintrBots, UltiMakers, etc.
It took me a week to build my reprap from parts (not kit) imported from China. It took me about a week to get it to print reliably, and it took about a year to get it to print reliably with different filaments, in varying weather, for long periods and without supervision.
It's not the "you won't get anything done on the first year", but it's also not the "just a week of tinkering" either.
It's not the "you won't get anything done on the first year", but it's also not the "just a week of tinkering" either.
I'm surprised that hobbyists building their own printer aren't going for the patented laser methods that actually make high quality parts. Surely you can make your own copy of a patented item, just not sell it. Even if you're not allowed to, nobody's going to know.
No, we can't use a patented method even if we don't sell stuff we make with it.
From the USPTO site: "Patent infringement is the act of making, using, selling, or offering to sell a patented invention...
http://www.uspto.gov/patents-maintaining-patent/patent-litig...
From the USPTO site: "Patent infringement is the act of making, using, selling, or offering to sell a patented invention...
http://www.uspto.gov/patents-maintaining-patent/patent-litig...
It's complicated and much more dangerous. 3d printer you need to be careful (it's hot) and probably want to get a solution for exhaust (smells and particulate).
Laser sintering you have lasers melting metal particulate to form the piece. That goes wrong you end up with nasty consequences.
Laser sintering you have lasers melting metal particulate to form the piece. That goes wrong you end up with nasty consequences.
I will say this: unless you have a lot of experience and really know what you're doing, start with laser-based systems (laser cutters, laser sinterers, etc) over a CNC router/mill. The failure mode is much more catastrophic with high-speed rotating parts. Worse thing that can happen with a laser is you start a small fire--startling for sure, but pretty easy to handle. Worst thing that can happen with a CNC mill: the milling head shatters and peppers you with high-velocity shrapnel.
Hobbyists mostly build from kits, so the kits would be restricted by the patents.
we purchased a Wan Hao Duplicator i3. it's a solid $400 printer. There is no hassle; it's better than a $2K MakerBot or anything else in the $2K price range. It just prints beautiful pieces repeatedly with no maintainence.
Why the need to print cheap plastic crap? That's why we have dollar stores and China.
Sometimes you want cheap plastic crap your local dollar store doesn't have and you don't want to find a Chinese willing to poison himself to make you 1000 pieces.
I use a $400 printer to print production parts for an industrial machine. The parts are custom shapes (I designed the machine).
There's a reason Stratasys is in trouble. Same reason IBM was in trouble after PC clone makers started eating their profit margin for lunch.
There's a reason Stratasys is in trouble. Same reason IBM was in trouble after PC clone makers started eating their profit margin for lunch.
spare part material cost: $5
spare part cost on the market: $50
spare part cost on the market: $50
Car manufacturer often charge a premium for the most mundane plastic parts.
And the part you print won't last, hence the "cheap" part of my comment. Where I work, we have a $30k printer that do that kind of work, production work, and it's not cheap.
Depends, I wasn't referring to parts with mechanical or thermal constraints, just weird electronic physical adapters. Sure they use well picked material for this that may or may not be superior to 3D printed plastics, but I'm really doubtful.
Making 1 of 1 kind of items.
Oh, I get that part... but how many people have that need or even the skill. No wonder the market is floundering...
Here's 3D systems on Good Morning America in 1989: http://youtu.be/NpRDuJ5YgoQ
The charade is up: 3D printers are not the design panacea they were claimed to be.
IMO, it's just another instance of overestimating impact in the short term and underestimating in the long.
In my opinion 3D printers are a little too limited on their own, but they're potentially very useful when paired with other tools. I'm interested in solutions like the FirePick Delta, which combines 3D printing with other functions that aid in home electronics manufacturing:
http://delta.firepick.org/
http://delta.firepick.org/
Here's why these 3D printer companies are now reeling in: go to kickstarter and search for "3d printing". There are 315 results. That's right, 315.
3D systems was founded in 1986. Stratasys was founded in 1989. These are not toy companies. These companies defined and refined the printing methods we're talking about today. What did their devices print? Engineering prototypes. Cars. Car parts. Medical and research parts. Things that preceded mass production. From cat scan to a hip broach with no room for error.
That kickstarter explosion is a reflection of the hype initially driven by hobbyist interest that brought 3D printing in the forefront some 4-5 years ago. Also fascinating is the RepRap family tree, which identifies the design origin of many of these kickstarter printers: http://reprap.org/wiki/RepRap_Family_Tree
So the market, the buyers, are confused because seemingly new printers and 3d printing companies are sprouting like mushrooms after a rain promising faster and cheaper printing for a hundred bucks, and they keep tanking. Failing to deliver. Breaking promises. Consumers don't know many of these are just remixed open-sourced printers or that it takes 8 hours to make a small toy. The product dilution is eroding confidence in the technology and stealing resources from starter companies who are serious and could deliver real products.
And to the two above-mentioned companies, who own patents and keys to the technology, this means their robust product has been massively devalued and confidence in them shaken.
3D systems was founded in 1986. Stratasys was founded in 1989. These are not toy companies. These companies defined and refined the printing methods we're talking about today. What did their devices print? Engineering prototypes. Cars. Car parts. Medical and research parts. Things that preceded mass production. From cat scan to a hip broach with no room for error.
That kickstarter explosion is a reflection of the hype initially driven by hobbyist interest that brought 3D printing in the forefront some 4-5 years ago. Also fascinating is the RepRap family tree, which identifies the design origin of many of these kickstarter printers: http://reprap.org/wiki/RepRap_Family_Tree
So the market, the buyers, are confused because seemingly new printers and 3d printing companies are sprouting like mushrooms after a rain promising faster and cheaper printing for a hundred bucks, and they keep tanking. Failing to deliver. Breaking promises. Consumers don't know many of these are just remixed open-sourced printers or that it takes 8 hours to make a small toy. The product dilution is eroding confidence in the technology and stealing resources from starter companies who are serious and could deliver real products.
And to the two above-mentioned companies, who own patents and keys to the technology, this means their robust product has been massively devalued and confidence in them shaken.
"3D systems was founded in 1986. Stratasys was founded in 1989. These are not toy companies. These companies defined and refined the printing methods we're talking about today. What did their devices print? Engineering prototypes. Cars. Car parts. Medical and research parts. Things that preceded mass production. From cat scan to a hip broach with no room for error."
This is exactly the problem with those companies. They had the patents that let them charge $60.000-$100.000 for something that cost less than $2000 to manufacture. They will spend more money sending you a sales representative, or in Shows and parties and fancy buildings.
Everything they sold to you was incredibly expensive, and God help you if your machine breaks.
For 20 something years they had done that and gotten away with it.
But now patents are expiring and they are dinosaurs.
"So the market, the buyers, are confused because seemingly new printers and 3d printing companies are sprouting like mushrooms after a rain promising faster and cheaper printing for a hundred bucks, and they keep tanking. Failing to deliver. Breaking promises. Consumers don't know many of these are just remixed open-sourced printers or that it takes 8 hours to make a small toy. The product dilution is eroding confidence in the technology and stealing resources from starter companies who are serious and could deliver real products."
I don't know what are you talking about. A Prusa Steel takes 30 minutes to mount. You can buy a printrbot, a bukito, a kossel already mounted.
Stealing resources? What? If I device to spend my money whenever I wish after a 20 years monopoly grant ends it is "stealing resources" from those guys?
This is exactly the problem with those companies. They had the patents that let them charge $60.000-$100.000 for something that cost less than $2000 to manufacture. They will spend more money sending you a sales representative, or in Shows and parties and fancy buildings.
Everything they sold to you was incredibly expensive, and God help you if your machine breaks.
For 20 something years they had done that and gotten away with it.
But now patents are expiring and they are dinosaurs.
"So the market, the buyers, are confused because seemingly new printers and 3d printing companies are sprouting like mushrooms after a rain promising faster and cheaper printing for a hundred bucks, and they keep tanking. Failing to deliver. Breaking promises. Consumers don't know many of these are just remixed open-sourced printers or that it takes 8 hours to make a small toy. The product dilution is eroding confidence in the technology and stealing resources from starter companies who are serious and could deliver real products."
I don't know what are you talking about. A Prusa Steel takes 30 minutes to mount. You can buy a printrbot, a bukito, a kossel already mounted.
Stealing resources? What? If I device to spend my money whenever I wish after a 20 years monopoly grant ends it is "stealing resources" from those guys?
You sound like the kind of person who can work through photogrammetric scanning, mesh reconstruction, 3D modeling with openSCAD, manual bed leveling, nozzle jams, picking the right nozzle sizes, print and bed temperatures, and other slic3r settings. You can figure out why your print came out looking like a malnourished waffle.
Most consumers who are interested in 3D printing can't.
This is not a hobbyist product. This is a product for a hobbyist engineer. With some elbow grease and love, it could become a hobbyist product, but an ungodly lot of these kickstarter companies are selling unicorns.
Most consumers who are interested in 3D printing can't.
This is not a hobbyist product. This is a product for a hobbyist engineer. With some elbow grease and love, it could become a hobbyist product, but an ungodly lot of these kickstarter companies are selling unicorns.
3D Systems stock (DDD) over the last 3.5 years has been a classic example of a bubble. A case studio, really. It has been amazing and educational following this stock the last 4 or so years.
It would appear Consumer 3D Printing is still in the 'Trough of Disillusionment' phase of the Hype Cycle.
https://i.imgur.com/tx3c3Pz.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
https://www.gartner.com/doc/3100228
https://i.imgur.com/tx3c3Pz.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
https://www.gartner.com/doc/3100228
For a 3-D printer to be useful to a home consumer a bunch of non-obvious conditions have to be met-
1- You have a need for an object you can't pick up at Home Depot, dollar store, etc.
2- You need the skills to model it in a 3-D program and make it suitable for printing.
3- You need to not have the skills to make it some other way- whether in wood, metal, or clay.
I think the combination of 1 and 3 is probably the real killer- all the hobbyist model makers, cosplayers, etc who would have the most use for one already have the skills and tools to make stuff in other ways.
1- You have a need for an object you can't pick up at Home Depot, dollar store, etc.
2- You need the skills to model it in a 3-D program and make it suitable for printing.
3- You need to not have the skills to make it some other way- whether in wood, metal, or clay.
I think the combination of 1 and 3 is probably the real killer- all the hobbyist model makers, cosplayers, etc who would have the most use for one already have the skills and tools to make stuff in other ways.
1- You download already made objects at youmagine, thingiverse or github.
2- You need to load your model and press a button that says "print".
3- You can make objects any other way in wood, metal or clay and 3d scan it to make it digital. E.g Cars are regularly designed on clay, and 3d scanned to make a computer model that you can replicate forever and edit in the computer.
I could spend hours carving wood or drilling, milling, lathing it. But all this work has to be replicated if I need another piece. Digitalization means anyone, anywhere could replicate my piece(or analyze in a CAM, CAE program).
2- You need to load your model and press a button that says "print".
3- You can make objects any other way in wood, metal or clay and 3d scan it to make it digital. E.g Cars are regularly designed on clay, and 3d scanned to make a computer model that you can replicate forever and edit in the computer.
I could spend hours carving wood or drilling, milling, lathing it. But all this work has to be replicated if I need another piece. Digitalization means anyone, anywhere could replicate my piece(or analyze in a CAM, CAE program).
What about:
4. 3-D models are available for purchase to instantly print an item in any dimensions you'd like.
4. 3-D models are available for purchase to instantly print an item in any dimensions you'd like.
That's really not a separate requirement (4) so much as an alternative to #2 (and an overspecified alternative, giving the "for purchase" part.)
I work with industrial automation (I design robot scientific instruments). I use a $400 printer from Wan Hao (Duplicator i3). I also have access to Stratasys. I don't care about the Stratasys.
The $400 Duplicator produces parts that I immediately put into production. They are very high quality (in appearance, in tolerance, and in strength).
We saw this before when the PC cloners ate IBM's profit margin for lunch.
The $400 Duplicator produces parts that I immediately put into production. They are very high quality (in appearance, in tolerance, and in strength).
We saw this before when the PC cloners ate IBM's profit margin for lunch.
I look at my personal 2D printer usage as a guide. I rarely print a anything at home anymore.
If I need a photo, I send the digital images to a printing service and receive a inexpensive high quality prints on professional quality paper, or bound in a coffee table book, or on a mug or birthday cake, etc.
The only time I print anything on my personal 2D printer is when I need it right now. All the while, I hate the experience; it's time consuming and requires expensive consumables.
I expect 3D printing will go the same way. If and when I ever start doing my own personal 3D printing, it will be through an online printing service where I can upload designs and have high quality prints done in various quality materials and shipped to me quickly via Amazon Prime or some other delivery service.
If I need a photo, I send the digital images to a printing service and receive a inexpensive high quality prints on professional quality paper, or bound in a coffee table book, or on a mug or birthday cake, etc.
The only time I print anything on my personal 2D printer is when I need it right now. All the while, I hate the experience; it's time consuming and requires expensive consumables.
I expect 3D printing will go the same way. If and when I ever start doing my own personal 3D printing, it will be through an online printing service where I can upload designs and have high quality prints done in various quality materials and shipped to me quickly via Amazon Prime or some other delivery service.
100% Something like this, but cheaper: http://www.staples.com/sbd/cre/products/3d-printing
The title is unfortunate and misleading.
3D printers are in fact booming. Each year the market doubles in size or more, hardly "falling flat".
USD30.000 printers are falling flat, precisely because you can do lots of the things you only could do in $30.000 machines with $1.000 and companies are not stupid.
Imagine someone telling you "computer firms are falling flat" when Apple II appeared, because IBM was loosing market in $1 million mainframes as some people in companies started wondering if those little microcomputer toys maybe could be used just for some things mainframes were used at the time.
"The expected household market for printers hasn’t caught on, despite widespread availability of printers at big-box retailers for under $5,000. Less than 10% of Stratasys’s annual sales come from home users, according to an analyst estimate."
Why don't they ask Brook from printrbot, Josef Prusa or RichRap?.
Of course I won't buy a printer that is not Open Source,a printer I can't improve, has no drivers for my OS, sells me electronic signed filament cartridges at silk price from StrataSys at "for under $5000!!!" when my printrbot simple metal cost me less than $600 and run circles around any cheap stratasys.
I have 3 printers in my house: A printrbot, a Prusa Steel and a delta minikossel, and it is just the beginning, resin 3d printers, good resolution 3d scanners, and CNCs are improving enormously, specially on price side.
3D printers are in fact booming. Each year the market doubles in size or more, hardly "falling flat".
USD30.000 printers are falling flat, precisely because you can do lots of the things you only could do in $30.000 machines with $1.000 and companies are not stupid.
Imagine someone telling you "computer firms are falling flat" when Apple II appeared, because IBM was loosing market in $1 million mainframes as some people in companies started wondering if those little microcomputer toys maybe could be used just for some things mainframes were used at the time.
"The expected household market for printers hasn’t caught on, despite widespread availability of printers at big-box retailers for under $5,000. Less than 10% of Stratasys’s annual sales come from home users, according to an analyst estimate."
Why don't they ask Brook from printrbot, Josef Prusa or RichRap?.
Of course I won't buy a printer that is not Open Source,a printer I can't improve, has no drivers for my OS, sells me electronic signed filament cartridges at silk price from StrataSys at "for under $5000!!!" when my printrbot simple metal cost me less than $600 and run circles around any cheap stratasys.
I have 3 printers in my house: A printrbot, a Prusa Steel and a delta minikossel, and it is just the beginning, resin 3d printers, good resolution 3d scanners, and CNCs are improving enormously, specially on price side.
THe entire 3D printer market capitalization (sales etc) can currently be summed up as :Stratasys and 3D Systems. The rest added up don't touch these guys for sales (total < 10% of what they sell). So, anything that happens to their sales is really significant; all the rest are not yet significant.
They are significant in number, not in capitalization.
This is the Innovator's dilemma. If you don't consider a cheap or toy market that is 10 times bigger than yours in units sold and continue growing as "significant" then you will find yourself on a "kodak moment" soon in the future.
Nvidia was insignificant against Silicon graphics selling toys, until it was not.
This is the Innovator's dilemma. If you don't consider a cheap or toy market that is 10 times bigger than yours in units sold and continue growing as "significant" then you will find yourself on a "kodak moment" soon in the future.
Nvidia was insignificant against Silicon graphics selling toys, until it was not.
That doesn't happen in an instant. At some point the upstart's market capitalization will have to grow orders of magnitude. Until then, business as usual, and that business is the big guys.
As the father of a 3 year old my interest in 3D printing has been reinvigorated. I can print segments of train tracks (1) for his train set to expand and build cool bridges (2). I can even print connectors that let me combine Mega Bloks (giant legos) with his train set (3), which is a good example of cool interoperability that the toy manufacturers themselves won't ever do. And I didn't even have to model any of this, since there are geekier parents than me out there.
Sure, it's still all just crappy chunks of plastic, but it's pretty cool to teach my son about the tech of 3D printing in such an engaging way.
1) http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:22244
2) http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:608012
3) http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:742253
Sure, it's still all just crappy chunks of plastic, but it's pretty cool to teach my son about the tech of 3D printing in such an engaging way.
1) http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:22244
2) http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:608012
3) http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:742253
It is amazing what children could do. The technology is very similar. If your children learn 3d printers today, in the future they will be able to 3d mill or EDM a piece in metal.
I volunteer teaching little children to 3d print here in Europe. There is a very active Spanish community. Some of them will do incredible things when they grow up.
I volunteer teaching little children to 3d print here in Europe. There is a very active Spanish community. Some of them will do incredible things when they grow up.
I've seen a lot of DIY folk waste a lot of time on 3D printers. As it currently stands, I think you should expect at least a year, maybe even 2, of your hobby being "building a 3D printer" rather than "building things with a 3D printer" if you get into it.
If you don't want to spend a few thousand dollars (and even the cheap ones you end up spending on, because of the replacements and upgrades you'll need and want to do), don't want to put up with the hassle, then I have three suggestions:
- For simple things, stick to wood-working, it's significantly easier and faster than 3D printing. e.g. if all you need is a box to hold a Raspberry Pi, A) you can probably get a pre-fab box at an arts-and-crafts shop near you, or B) making boxes is not terribly difficult (there will be methods you will have to learn, it's not something you just jump into, but the actual techniques are not that hard).
- For things requiring precise dimensions and non-standard cuts, go with laser cutting. There are a wide variety of materials you can use, and a huge number of very cheap, very fast services you can employ. You basically draw your thing in InkScape or Adobe Illustrator, email it away, wait a day or two, and then glue your thing together. It is very easy and it makes for extremely clean and professional-looking "prototype grade" results.
- If you need the complexity of 3D printing: order from ShapeWays. Don't buy a 3D printer. If not ShapeWays, you might have a local shop that has 3D printing available. They will only charge you for the finished product, they don't charge you for the failures.
At this point in time, with the speed of all 3D printers being so bad, and the reliability of any 3D printer you could own on a single person's budget, there is no point to owning your own 3D printer. If that is going to change anytime in the near future, it will require a few seachanges in how we go about 3D printing. Otherwise, it's waiting for certain patents to expire.