> Then I see he links to his own Revolutionary Theory, and it starts to look like outright crankary.
But what an AI-generated crankery! Because I enjoy wasting my time, I chose a random point (beginning of ch2) and started reading:
> Standard field-theoretic practice selects equations using symmetry, gauge invariance, and conservation. This
chapter proposes a cognate selection principle built from three structural demands. A potential that carries
energy must appear on the right-hand side of its own equation, because the energy it carries is part of what
sources it. A potential that describes the same physics in every frame must have an equation that survives
change of observer. A tensor equation must have matching ranks on both sides.
I've italicized a couple of items: Cognate selection principle? Really?
A tensor equation must have matching ranks on both sides? As opposed to all those tensor equations with differing ranks on both sides? Not exactly the type of thing that makes someone slap their head and shout "Why didn't I think of that?!"
The technobabble is interesting in that any single sentence might make sense in the absence of sentences nearby; It that regard, it's much like an Escher painting: Locally sensible, but globally out-to-lunch.
Great. Let us hope that support for hardware without TPM is next. Creating several mountains worth of electronic waste was a terrible decision. And in the middle of the AI-induced memory shortage!
Although I have to admit: The combination of AI and required new hardware has been a nice boost for switching to Linux.
I think the most intriguing part of this effort: Farmers traditionally employ machines to achieve their harvest. Unless I'm mistaken, this is the first time that machines are employing humans to achieve their harvest.
I mean, more or less, but you see what I'm getting at.
I think an additional table/graph of how large-bet performance vs small-bet performance would be interesting in general, as well as broken out by market type.
It kinda answers of the question: Are large bets equal to smart money? or are they equal in "smartness" to small bets?
> but i did find that politics was actually one of the most efficient categories (only ~1% maker/taker gap)
I confess I'm surprised by that result in particular. I realize your results are for Kalshi, but ISTR some reports from the presidential elections on Polymarket.
But more generally: When you say there is "only a ~1% maker/taker gap", is that weighted by the size of the bets? or is it averaged over the number of bets placed?
Something that appears to be missing: Certain events attract "advertising" types of bets. E.g. There is value in making a candidate appear to be a leader, so dedicating dollars to swinging the market is more of a form of advertising than an intelligent bet.
So it would be interesting to measure the inefficiencies of various bets vs the total market value in that bet.
e: Although full disclosure, I did not pick apart the entire paper. Maybe it's buried in there.
Maybe they could add a helpful paper clip to improve sales.
Edit: Or better still, convince all of their customers to throw away perfectly good hardware and upgrade to one with a single extra chip, creating a hazardous waste epidemic for landfills as a nice side effect. It's especially important to do this in the middle of a RAM and HDD shortage.
Really, I'll just never be half the great business strategist that these guys are. <sigh>
> Although I’ve never had a boss that needed to find an error.
I think that is key. A great mentor early in my career pointed out to me: "A" rated people need to work for "A" rated bosses. It's possible to have a "B" or "C" person work for an "A" boss, but when you put "A" people under "B" or (god forbid) "C" bosses, all kinds of problems ensue.
[I've personally experienced that situation only once, and swore never again.]
Like many of you, I serve as IT support for family. Some of those family are beginning to slip cognitively, so I'd like to say: Fk google for doing this. You are confusing my relatives who cannot tell the difference between your ad-spam and actual links, and it is not an exaggeration to say that you are now taking advantage of old people.
I'm trying to install adblockers (uBlock) and move them over to chatgpt when possible. If anyone has better ideas, I'm all ears.