Maddeningly accurate. Taarof can demonstrate a mastery of social intelligence, like the Japanese tea ceremony writ large in society, and is a good goalpost for AGI.
Not one month ago, as an admission of my own clumsy slight, I had remarked to a senior of higher status, that Chatgpt could just grasp Taarof.
as a longtime, proud, and noble pirate; attempts at moral justification or condemnation are simply gratuitous and i'm certain many like me feel the same
but if it is not that would be extremely impressive! determinism/freewill reduces to shazam!?
whats the training data to predict new song titles? heh
check out this reply from claude2:
>predict the next 3 new song titles from artist Taylor Swift
1. Last Dance with You - A reflective ballad about finding closure after a breakup.
2. Never Getting Back Together - A pop tune emphasizing that the same mistakes won't be made twice in a relationship.
3. 22 Was My Prime - A lighthearted look back on her early 20s as carefree years that can't be replicated.
I think we will find more examples countering our modern idea of discrete organisms separated across generations.
Consider again the glider translated across space time. Is it the same glider after 1,2,10 generations in time?
I always found it curious the ancient archons had rulerships which kept continuity in nominative identity across individuals for several generations. The social practice continues with the first, the second, III, IV etc.
In summary historical population projections have been pretty accurate but not in the way you expect.
*One thought is that because current date may become a historical inflection point similar to the first half of the 20th century, current date demographic statistics may be too important to put much stock in. Sobering.
I'm very interested to see how this picture will look 20-30 years out.
Wealth is concentrated in pockets and the average person gets by. China wealth Gini index is moderating somewhat around Japan tier. US Gini is very high and closer to the world average.
Don't know where you're from or your experience but you maybe want to update your priors on the meaning term first world, which peaked in usage roughly 1948...
The mean and median living some places might surprise you. For example visit HongKong, Singapore, Taipei, Tokyo, or a mainland city this millenium. Or dont'!
First world, it mostly conjures automobile culture and car infrastructure which is nothing special these days but check the world's largest car makers... you would guess Germany Japan or even the USA recently no?
For sure political innovation is a terribly slow process. I don't believe leveraging LLMs will have a direct observable effect on that until civilization <> AI digests for little while longer. Yes we could certainly discuss AI governance (governance by AI)
There are two other areas you would seem to point at. Firstly other technological innovation will have momentous effects, I will not name the buzzwords but you easily know from what by excluding AI/LLM. The second and far more interesting is what I will call political innovation which is orthogonal to technological development, which is totally driven by changes in consciousness. I think that often looks like a stepfunction, because I hardly see the needle moving there outside the generation-to-generation cultural noise.
local and provicial governments really dont matter. they do their best to support and bid projects for national champions and siting direct foreign investments where competitive. the areas which outperform (do least bad) have their executive talent siphoned to the central government. as FDI has dried up in the global slowdown restructuring and local reforms are due. one idea is to heavily lean on consumption which is palatable to some. i dont see that the chinese (or the japanese) feel that is a tenable path however
The 200$ billion hole in CN real estate is comparable in size to the SVB signature US banking crisis. In that case US treasury policy was a bailout for uninsured depositors who are wealthy supporters of the ruling blue party.
Most of the underwater property developers are wealthy patrons of the ruling red party in China and will ultimately receive similar government bailouts. Privatized gains and socialized losses it's the same movie everywhere.
But this is just theatre, on the order of 1 trillion disappearing in smoke is not going to sink the ship of any nation with 100 trillion in wealth assets.
edit: I should say this money doesn't really disappear in smoke, it's bourne on the backs of mostly middle classes amortization over the period of decades in hidden inflation taxes and marginal lower living standards.
Not one month ago, as an admission of my own clumsy slight, I had remarked to a senior of higher status, that Chatgpt could just grasp Taarof.