As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back(techcrunch.com)
techcrunch.com
As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back
https://techcrunch.com/2018/12/26/as-bitcoin-sinks-industry-startups-are-forced-to-cut-back/
304 comments
2018 is the year that we learned that complex social problems can not be solved by technology. From the political weaponization of social media to the collapse of the ICO market we've seen that the techno-utopian dream is largely just that, a dream. Social change takes hard work and the slow building of consensus, not just clever code. We have seen, however, that we can do a lot of damage to the social fabric with poorly thought out technology so I think the era of the unregulated internet is sadly coming to a close. We really have nobody to blame but ourselves.
The next generation of internet startups is going to have to be a lot more savvy about how technology interacts with society.
The next generation of internet startups is going to have to be a lot more savvy about how technology interacts with society.
What puzzled me is how comes blockchain startups did not sell their crypto for fiat just after their ICOs.
I recommended this to several of my blockchain customers but none of them listened. I dont know if that was motivated by greed or something else.
According to Game theory there is no benefit in not selling the crypto for fiat: if you raise lets say 10million during an ico (typical amount raised 6m ago), there isnt much you can do with 20M (i.e you keep the crypto and it doubles) that you cant do with “just” 10M.
However, if the crypto crashes, and become 5M, you are going to have a hard time explaining to stake holders that 5M just disappeared...
At worst you keep 10pct in crypto if really you want to keep some upside to crypto but thats it
I recommended this to several of my blockchain customers but none of them listened. I dont know if that was motivated by greed or something else.
According to Game theory there is no benefit in not selling the crypto for fiat: if you raise lets say 10million during an ico (typical amount raised 6m ago), there isnt much you can do with 20M (i.e you keep the crypto and it doubles) that you cant do with “just” 10M.
However, if the crypto crashes, and become 5M, you are going to have a hard time explaining to stake holders that 5M just disappeared...
At worst you keep 10pct in crypto if really you want to keep some upside to crypto but thats it
At what price will the Bitcoin death spiral occur? (i.e. when it costs more to produce/handle Bitcoin than the revenue generated, so best move is to just exit the crypto industry).
Ah, the Bloomberg and TechCrunch bottom signals I’m looking for.
The discussion of blockchain tech on HN is puzzling to me.
On the matter of value: I suspect that if we find ourselves able to send a message back in time two years (when BTC was less than $1,000 USD) and report that the price is now over $3,700, that we'll find this message to be met with an understanding that this is, at least, a validation of the use of blockchain tech as a store of value.
I suspect that if we describe the details of the lightning network in this message and report that transactions are radically faster and cheaper for retail-scale use, that we'll hear cheers about blockchain utility as a currency.
If we describe LivePeer and Fluence and the Origin protocol, if we stream talks from this year's DevCon about the incredible Python tooling that is coming of age and the progress on sharding, proof-of-stake, ring signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs, I'm certain that we'll hear nothing but confidence about the ecosystem and the extensibility of blockchain tech.
If I am permitted to send one of my recent talks[0] back with this message about our progress at NuCypher on developing new cryptographic primitives and cryptological narratives to accompany them, I have no doubt whatsoever that we'll receive back both excitement and gratitude, not on account of our work but because everybody in December of 2017 will be so grateful to know that they're about to be alive during a time when organizations like ours actually have the funding and mission to dust off tech that has sat largely stagnant for the preceding 10-15 years and move it substantially forward.
Yet, look at us HN. Instead of these reactions we're sitting here filled with cynicism and darkness. Why? Where have we misplaced our joy at these developments?
I'll tell you what: let's just pretend that somebody from December of 2021 has posted a message here with similar signs of encouragement. Let's imagine that they've told us about Ethereum 2.0 and Monero coming online. That new turnkey technologies include decentralized access management via NuCypher, buttery transcoding via LivePeer, and fast and flexible decentralized queries via Fluence.
Let's hear in our mind's voice about the next cohort of decentralized tech following these, including fully-homomorphic encryption (perhaps via NuFHE), solutions to several of the open oracle problems, and blockchain use in all sorts of gaming scenarios to ensure fairness of loot boxes and other intra-game economics.
Let's celebrate all the adoption they report to us: medical devices that work without the need for trust in insurance companies, communications infrastructure with far greater robustness and in widespread use to thwart spy apparatuses of despotic governments, sharing frameworks to ensure that media is able to spread throughout the world despite attempts at censorship or outdated notions of "intellectual property."
Please, let's let 2019 be a year when optimism and childlike curiosity are not only permitted in these parts but celebrated like they (largely) were just two years ago when the BTC price was less than 30% what it is today.
[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuY9WXK61gY
On the matter of value: I suspect that if we find ourselves able to send a message back in time two years (when BTC was less than $1,000 USD) and report that the price is now over $3,700, that we'll find this message to be met with an understanding that this is, at least, a validation of the use of blockchain tech as a store of value.
I suspect that if we describe the details of the lightning network in this message and report that transactions are radically faster and cheaper for retail-scale use, that we'll hear cheers about blockchain utility as a currency.
If we describe LivePeer and Fluence and the Origin protocol, if we stream talks from this year's DevCon about the incredible Python tooling that is coming of age and the progress on sharding, proof-of-stake, ring signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs, I'm certain that we'll hear nothing but confidence about the ecosystem and the extensibility of blockchain tech.
If I am permitted to send one of my recent talks[0] back with this message about our progress at NuCypher on developing new cryptographic primitives and cryptological narratives to accompany them, I have no doubt whatsoever that we'll receive back both excitement and gratitude, not on account of our work but because everybody in December of 2017 will be so grateful to know that they're about to be alive during a time when organizations like ours actually have the funding and mission to dust off tech that has sat largely stagnant for the preceding 10-15 years and move it substantially forward.
Yet, look at us HN. Instead of these reactions we're sitting here filled with cynicism and darkness. Why? Where have we misplaced our joy at these developments?
I'll tell you what: let's just pretend that somebody from December of 2021 has posted a message here with similar signs of encouragement. Let's imagine that they've told us about Ethereum 2.0 and Monero coming online. That new turnkey technologies include decentralized access management via NuCypher, buttery transcoding via LivePeer, and fast and flexible decentralized queries via Fluence.
Let's hear in our mind's voice about the next cohort of decentralized tech following these, including fully-homomorphic encryption (perhaps via NuFHE), solutions to several of the open oracle problems, and blockchain use in all sorts of gaming scenarios to ensure fairness of loot boxes and other intra-game economics.
Let's celebrate all the adoption they report to us: medical devices that work without the need for trust in insurance companies, communications infrastructure with far greater robustness and in widespread use to thwart spy apparatuses of despotic governments, sharing frameworks to ensure that media is able to spread throughout the world despite attempts at censorship or outdated notions of "intellectual property."
Please, let's let 2019 be a year when optimism and childlike curiosity are not only permitted in these parts but celebrated like they (largely) were just two years ago when the BTC price was less than 30% what it is today.
[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuY9WXK61gY
I've seen so many local startups that are essentially scams:
March 2018: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/09/bitcoin-m...
November 2018: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/washington-bitcoin-pio...
March 2018: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/09/bitcoin-m...
November 2018: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/washington-bitcoin-pio...
When I first invested in Bitcoin several years back, I tried to imagine ways that it could one day be deterred from becoming increasingly adopted and valuable. Government regulation and hacking were obvious possibilities, but I never considered “death by fragmentation” at the time. I think Bitcoin would be a lot more valuable today if it had not been for the explosion of largely greed-motivated shitcoins (and later ICOs) entering the market.
When you flip the chart upside down, it sunk 300% over 2 years!
long time since the last Bitcoin is dead article
From a fundamentals perspective, blockchain has a bright future:
lending - https://dharma.io
derivatives - https://dydx.exchange
forecasting/gambling - https://www.augur.net
on-chain "US dollars" - https://mkr.tools
lending - https://dharma.io
derivatives - https://dydx.exchange
forecasting/gambling - https://www.augur.net
on-chain "US dollars" - https://mkr.tools
Bitcoin seems to be getting real hurt from the lack of hype and bans from big adtech companies (along with all the cryptocurrency stuff as well.)
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin&geo=US
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin&geo=US
At least this might provide pressure to reduce the environmental impact of mining, if only to reduce costs.
Funny that crypto is being called industry.
Long
is anybody really surprised other than people still involved with this blockchain/cryptocurrency nonsense?
The entire bitcoin pump and dump was orchestrated.
The entire bitcoin pump and dump was orchestrated.
by the way, Techcrunch CEO was all in crypto last year
Wonder how this effects Lykke.com
BTC/USD is doing just fine. Nobody who knows anything about anything made any kinds of plans involving $20,000 Bitcoin. At ~$4k, it's still 10x where it was 2 years ago. Anybody remotely involved in BTC from it's actual inception (not the bandwagon shirt-losers of 2017) is filthy stinking rich now.
This is similar to the housing bubble, where the industry collectively hyped up the "investment" promising huge returns, yet no one was to blame when the music stopped.
Watch out for mo ways to diffuse responsibility, that's where "action" will be. Maybe we can nip it in the bud sooner if all keep an eye out.