Home owns are owned by people, not the home itself. If someone fails to pay a loan, their own credit score will be impacted
For these PE loans, its the new company that takes on the debt, not the buyer. Essentially any broke person can "afford" any trillion dollar company this way
eBay is dying, new competitors are being created constantly, and the big ones like Poshmark are getting more North American buyers and sellers. eBay has barely grown since their post covid slump
Maybe eBay survives as an international site but even at that point, with $20B in debt this will just follow the regular PE playbook of shutting down after many layoffs and pivots
The entire concept of, "I have $1,000 in the bank, im going to buy a $10,000 company, but the debt will be on the companies name, not mine" needs to pass. Can you imagine if the mortgage was owned by our home, not ourselves. And we could stop paying it without any personal consequences
If you want to buy a $50B company, you should pay $50B (loans are fine, but not putting the new company in debt)
if you've ever been through a Meta loop (and their method is to cast an extremely wide net, so chances are you have), you've seen how inefficient their loop can be for long term success
6-7 38* minute interviews, while the interviewee is trying to squeeze in showcasing their skills and experience, the interviewer is obsessed with figuring out a rigid set of pre-determined "signals"
Once these candidates actually start work, their success in the team is a complete coinflip
* 38 minutes = 45 minute scheduled - 2 minute intro - 5 minute saved for candidate questions at the end
Labubus peaking and falling doesnt really say much about scarcity and trends. Labubu is made by a public company, who's stock skyrocketed, and essentially decided to go all in and mass produce to meet the popularity
thats one option. But other companies sometimes choose to keep the scarcity and secrecy for years, even decades, and if they play their cards right it keeps working
Labubus fall is more about its makers decision to increase sales numbers instead of keeping them flat and generating more and more and more hype
Hermes can sell a $15,000 Birkin to everyone, im sure they can figure out the supply chain aspects if they really wanted to. and within a month everyone that wanted one would have one and sales would drop. Hermes will have a spike in sales, followed by a drop
Instead they force you to play years long games with their sales staff to get an opportunity to spend $15,000. And decades later people still opt in to spending thousands of dollars on plates and scarves hoping one day they will be offered one
This is just as true about a $40 Supreme, or Aime Leon Dore T-shirt, than it is for a $15,000 handbag. If you keep the scarcity going just right, it lasts much longer
When sales are still growing YoY (like the post covid market), but prices are up 30% or 40%, you understand your customer is still willing to pay the higher price
Its similar to a McDonalds or Starbucks situation where you just keep increasing prices dramatically until you get a first quarter of lower than expected sales, then you start adapting downwards
Most corporations still haven't hit that limit, see streaming companies increasing prices every few months, they still haven't hit the point where profits decrease YoY. When they do the streaming prices start decreasing
a company with 800 million weekly active users, and only losing $10B-$15B before implementing ads - which IMO is coming fast and soon to the LLM world - i would never calculate a 90% chance their shares end up at $0 before an exit option
This is the easiest money and best relationship JPM could imagine
At least from what I noticed - Junie from Jetbrains was the first to use a very high quality to do list, and it quickly became my favorite
I haven't used it since it became paid, but back then Junie was slow and thoughtful, while Cursor was constantly re-writing files that worked fine, and Claude was somewhere in the middle
IIRC status pages drive customer compensation for downtime. Updating it is basically signing the check for their biggest customers, in most similar companies you need a very senior executive to approve the update
On the other side of this, Firebase probably doesn't have money at stake making the update
If we're making comparisons, its more like someone selling a $10,000 course on how to be a millionaire
Not directly from OpenAI - but people in the industry is advertising how these advanced models can replace employees, yet they keep on going on hiring tears (including OpenAI). Lets see the first company to stand behind their models, and replace 50% of their existing headcount with agents. That to me would be a sign these things are going to replace peoples jobs. Until I see that, if OpenAI can't figure out how to replace humans with models, then no one will
I mean could you imagine if todays announcement was - the chatgpt.com webdev team has been laid off, and all new features and fixes will be complete by Codex CLI + o4-mini. That means they believe in the product theyre advertising. Until they do something like that, theyll keep on trusting those human engineers and try selling other people on the dream
Im old enough to remember the mystery and hype before o*/o1/strawberry that was supposed to be essentially AGI. We had serious news outlets write about senior people at OpenAI quitting because o1 was SkyNet
Now we're up to o4, AGI is still not even in near site (depending on your definition, I know). And OpenAI is up to about 5000 employees. I'd think even before AGI a new model would be able to cover for at least 4500 of those employees being fired, is that not the case?
Junie has been amazing for me, completely replaced my payments for Claude Code and Cursor. And it was free (until today). It's the least aggressive agent i've used, no complete re-writes or even close, And is able to achieve about 95% of what I ask of it
The only downside - which might be fixed in the newest release - is that it completely forgets context between messages - even in the same message window. But that feels like both cost cutting and easy to fix
My biggest issues with Claude Code and Cursor for what its worth:
Claude Code: Price, plus when it doesnt get things right, within a few messages it ALWAYS just creates a new file entry point with some demo console.logs that do nothing but show messages, and claims to have succeeded in what I asked
Cursor: Will break some functionality in my web application while fixing or creating others, about 80% of the time
We publicly know about tools like Pegasus and competitors Predator, Hermit and I would confidently assume hundreds of other tools that dont publicly advertise themselves. (they all might be using the same handful of 0days for all we know)
There are multiple public price lists for 0days, Crowdfense currently has iOS full Zero Click Full Chain listed as $5m-$7m
And thats a long way to say - thats correct, its insecure. For the price of $7m any adverse of the US (or friendly country, who cares) can read all these government messages (who knows how many more Signal groups exist without the Atlantic editor)
That would be the cheapest way to get US confidential information in the history of spy agencies. The NSA budget is $10B per year
The assumption of anyone should be - everything in my iPhone and Android phone can be read for $7m. The conversations im having in front of my iPhone can be recorded for $7m. Then the only question left is - is the information worth more than that
If the answer is yes, assume your phone is compromised and only talk near it / message using it, information you understand will become public
So GME dilutes by 20%, stock price immediately goes down by 20%. its not some infinite money hack