Are you sure you're not the one seeing the survivorship bias? Something that is 10% likely to happen ends up switching to the opposite outcome at the very end 1/10 times. There are thousands of prediction markets up at any given time, so there are going to be plenty of examples of unlikely events happening.
> The fact is the federal government seems to grow and spend without any limit or regard to logic. It doesn't -feel- like much has ever been done to address it.
In terms of "growth", the number of federal civilian government employees has basically never been lower as a percentage of the population.
sure, just wanted to point that out since someone who didn't read the article could have easily assumed that was an annual number, as in the US we are used to 2ish percent annual inflation being the target.
Is it not possible for "proper" management, rather than mismanagement, to result in downsizing a bloated org that over-hired, or lowering compensation in an employee-friendly hiring environment where a bunch of senior employees where laid off across the industry?
Both of those goals seek to lower costs, and goes counter to the interests of the union without being considered "mismanagement"
Compare the reaction to Bob Lee's death from someone who was murdered by someone he knew vs the lack of reaction to the most likely way any of us are killed.
Traffic violence has become completely normalized, just the cost of doing business. You can constantly speed through school zones with no repercussions, especially if you cover your plate.
If you're looking to kill someone and get away with it, do it in your car.
What's being punished is the fraud, not the losses. We do not want to incentivize companies putting it all on red with customer funds they don't have a right to touch as long as they win the bet, we want to punish them for even trying, regardless of whether it happened to work this time.
Hochul was trying to negotiate an amendment to the bill to limit it to people making under $250k, but the reason it died is because they couldn't agree on the language of what's included (bonuses, equity, etc)
But there is plenty of research on how well-calibrated they are. For example, https://polymarket.com/accuracy