Indeed, the B2B / no-data-retention market is still going to provide plenty of business for American companies even if every hobbyist uses open-weight models.
(1) What does it score on the private test set?
(2) Does this approach generalize to, e.g., Atari or NES games, or is it just hard-coding priors about the games into the model (as Chollet specifically warned was a chronic problem in benchmarks in the original Arc-AGI paper)
This is missing the most important thing which is why HRs are so damn useful. It's because (a) survival analysis is very statistically powerful, but (b) many survival curves do not follow a very well-described parametric function. The genius of David Cox was in realizing that, when proportional hazards hold, you can just cancel out the unknown survival function and get the multiplicative hazard ratio immediately, in a statistically powerful and statistically efficient manner. Extremely useful if you are, say, trialing a novel chemotherapy drug and want to end your trial ASAP to get everyone on the intervention arm if the drug actually works.
The places where proportional hazards gets squirrely (very long observation times, crossing curves) are a small fraction of the use cases of survival analysis, and dunking on them for "not being Bayesian" or whatever misses this broader context.
I think the "secret sauce" is not juicing the benchmarks. Claude models just feel like they are better than the benchmarks suggest, in terms of smarts and creativity, while models from every other company feel worse relative to what you'd think from the benchmarks. Only company to really internalize Goodhart's Law, IMO.
I'll take the opposite side of that bet. My prediction is that Fable 5 Re-Release will have safety classifiers that flag much more often on mundane front-end and back-end coding tasks.
I sense a business opportunity: a web app that de-sloppifies real estate, airbnb, and vrbo photos! See what it really looks like, thanks to the power of AI!
Yes, you really need "dollars per amount of RAM you need for standard computing tasks." Windows 11 requires a bare minimum of 4 GB of RAM, Window 10 only needed 1 GB.