It means financial companies have been illogically pumping semiconductor companies the last 5 months despite the profits, royalties and supply chain being entire worse than a year ago.
They pumped ai adjacent stocks to draw retail in, to provide liquidity now when they are in theory forced to purchase SpaceX.
Effectively getting people to buy semi-ai stocks at a premium to fund their forced purchase for SpaceX.
Apple is about to deprecate the iphone 11/SE 2020 version. Am gonna repurpose them as webcams given the 12MP camera put in there is arguably better than the brand new ones they put on new macs.
The phone now has a limited lifespan though because of this prior stupidity where eventually am gonna get into spicy pillow territory. At that point the phone prematurely dies.
We are going into a period where we are throwing away devices with 12mp+ cameras, and processors arguably faster than most desktops. It was arguable when the phones were old and legacy, but at this point the cameras on there are stupidly good.
We need these phones to be repurposed for a second life and actually capture their manufacture energy costs.
Frankly, if Apple allowed old iphones to be used for server usage, it is kind of crazy how efficient per dollar that would be.
90% of the stock is owned by Masa who used it for collateral for his 18 billion loan for Stargate. THat is against 33 banks who have a strong incentivise to dump in a margin call situation.
Their revenues are circular for the last 4 years, with 30% growth purely coming from Softbank shuffling their own money.
They are gonna be the canary in the coal mine for when the AI bubble implodes.
Okay but even in that case the hardware suffers significant under utilisation which massively hits RoI. (I think I read they only achieve 30% utilisation in this scenario)
Current US debt to gdp is 124%, 38.6 trillion.
Japan too at 230-240%.
Bond markets in both are looking seriously unhealthy (Japan going via a Liz Truss moment at present).
If the AI bubble falls over, the US government is going to have to print 5 trillion to cover the bubble at least. The only option there is inflate away anyone holding cash.
If hte AI succeeds and people are replaced, the US government faces a massive fiscal cliff of a loss of tax receipts. They won't be able to service the debt and again will be forced to inflate away.
To service current debt projects, AI growth needs to return some 3.2-3.5%, it is currently 0.5%.
Bonds, equities, USD, and housing are all risk assets right now.
I am still a little skeptical about utilisation rates. If demand is so extreme, wouldn't we see rental prices for H100/A100 prices go up or maintain? Wouldn't the cost for such a gpu still be high (you can get em 3k used).
The biggest discussion I have been on having this is the implications on Deepseek for say the RoI H100. Will a sudden spike in available GPUs and reduction in demand (from efficient GPU usage) dramatically shock the cost per hour to rent a GPU. This I think is the critical value for measuring the investment value for Blackwell now.
The price for a H100 per hour has gone from the peak of $8.42 to about $1.80.
A H100 consumes 700W, lets say $0.10 per kwh?
A H100 costs around $30000.
Given deepseek, can the price of this drop further given a much larger supply of available GPUs can now be proven to be unlocked (Mi300x, H200s, H800s etc...).
Now that LLMs have effectively become commodity, with a significant price floor, is this new value ahead of what is profitable for the card.
Given the new Blackwell is $70000, is there sufficient applications that enable customers to get a RoI on the new card?
Am curious about this as I think I am currently ignorant of the types of applications that businesses can use to outweigh the costs. I predict that the cost per hour of the GPU dropping such that it isn't such a no-brainer investment compared to previously. Especially if it is now possible to unlock potential from much older platforms running at lower electricity rates.
They pumped ai adjacent stocks to draw retail in, to provide liquidity now when they are in theory forced to purchase SpaceX.
Effectively getting people to buy semi-ai stocks at a premium to fund their forced purchase for SpaceX.