I would be more excited if it wasn't $200 a month to try.
I don't feel like OpenAI does a good job of getting me excited either.
Find the perfect snowboard? How can that idea get pitched and make the final cut for a $200 a month service? The NFL kicker example is also completely ridiculous.
The business and UX example seems interesting. Would love to see more.
I think sports betting is obnoxious and stupid but I do worry about this moral policing some seem to want to do.
The people I know losing money to online sports betting are the same people who thought they were going to become pro online poker grinders 15 years ago.
If you got rid of online sports betting they would go play slots at the casino more and waste their money on the lottery.
If you get rid of all games of chance for money, there is a good % of people who will find a way to squander their savings somehow.
If anything, people I know waste far more money going out to eat than sports betting.
I grew up playing American football and I am pretty well versed on the literature.
I live for now and don't put a lot of stock in having a great life after 65.
In American football, much depends on the position you played. I am not sure how that is for Aussie rules but lineman and linebackers who would be involved in more hits have it worse than wide receivers and cornerbacks. That never seems to be reported with CTE.
The concussion count is mostly non-sense from my understanding. I think this is how the NFL has shaped the narrative to not be so bad and their bogus "concussion protocol". The subconcussive hits are the major problem and that is just part of football. I took at least a thousand of them smashing heads together.
It is also degenerative over time. You aren't going to just wake up one day with problems. If it is really bad you are going to have crazy behavior problems. Like Aaron Hernandez. I am sure OJ Simpson had bad CTE.
I just doubt cold sores are that big of a variable compared to being hit in the head thousands of times.
My memory completely sucks but that has just made me an incredibly good note taker for job related functions.
Sapolsky's book Determined is really the counter to your post.
I don't want to believe what that book says but it is quite a strong argument. It is really too sweeping and complicated to discuss in this format though. It really would need an entire counter book to it that dissects each point.
I feel like at this point we have to separate LLMs and reasoning models too.
I can see the argument against chatGPT4 reasoning.
The reasoning models though I think get into some confusing language but I don't know what else you would call it.
If you say a car is not "running" the way a human runs, you are not incorrect even though a car can "outrun" any human obviously in terms of moving speed on the ground.
To say since a car can't run , it can't move though is obviously completely absurd.
USD to CAD has front ran a lot of this already. 1.45 is crazy.
The idea Canada can so easily re-route trade is absurd. Especially when the trade is going to be settled in USD.
I have been trying to understand the point of all this and come up empty this morning. I would have to assume it is for enormous leverage in the trade deal that ultimately ends all this. The leverage this gives the US in a trade deal, especially with Canada is pretty incredible.
25% is just so insane that it probably does cause Mexico and Canada to concede to whatever Trump wants in a trade deal and in short order. I think this is why Trump won't even take a call from Trudeau right now. It is a leverage tactic and then when they do talk what leverage does Trudeau have? Basically zero.
Most behavior we believe is some kind of rational action when it is really blind actions based on fiction or just completely random with rationalizations for the behavior after the fact.
The figures I have seen in a trade war with Canada is Canada causes a -.2% hit to US GDP while Canada gets a -2% hit. That is not going to work for Canada.
These aren't abuses of power though. We just largely got use to the president not trying to do all that much.
Obama issued 275 executive orders and Franklin Roosevelt issued 3721. Calvin Coolidge issued 1203. I think all the presidents during my lifetime combined issued less than Woodrow Wilson at 1803.
That is not to say I think a trade war with Canada is a good idea. It really makes no sense to me at all.
I don't really understand what the end game is with Canada here.
For Mexico, it seems more like a prod for social policy on immigration and fentanyl.
I listened to Trudeau yesterday and he isn't even able to get a hold of Trump right now, something that seems just insane.
I am just not sure that is true though that this is a disaster for the US. How much can China afford to fight back here with the state of their economy? Canada retaliating is asymmetrically bad for Canada.
Dollar strength and an emerging market currency breaking is what worries me. Inside the US, I would expect much of the potential inflation will just be exported through dollar strength. I imagine that is the method to the madness.
What is censorship to a puritan? It is a moral good.
As an American, I have put a lot of time into trying to understand Chinese culture.
I can't connect more with the Confucian ideals of learning as a moral good.
There are fundamental differences though from everything I know that are not compatible with Chinese culture.
We can find common ground though on these Confucian ideals that DeepSeek can represent.
I welcome China kicking our ass in technology. It is exactly what is needed in America. America needs a discriminator in an adversarial relationship to progress.
It is still curious though as far as what is actually being automated?
I find huge value in these models as an augmentation of my intelligence and as a kind of cybernetic partner.
I can't think of anything that can actually be automated though in terms of white collar jobs.
The white collar model test case I have in mind is a bank analyst under a bank operations manger. I have done both in the past but there is something really lacking with the idea of the operations manager replacing the analyst with a reasoning model even though DeepSeek annihilates every bank analyst reasoning I ever worked with right now.
If you can't even arbitrage the average bank analyst there might be these really non-intuitive no AI arbitrage conditions with white color work.
I had resubscribed to use o1 2 weeks ago and haven't even logged in this week because of R1.
One thing I notice that is huge is being able to see the chain of thought lets me see when my prompt was lacking and the model is a bit confused on what I want.
If I was anymore impressed with R1 I would probably start getting accused of being a CCP shill or wumao lol.
With that said, I think it is very hard to compare models for your own use case. I do suspect there is a shiny new toy bias with all this too.
Poor Sonnet 3.5. I have neglected it so much lately I actually don't know if I have a subscription or not right now.
I do expect an Anthropic reasoning model though to blow everything else away.
I don't feel like OpenAI does a good job of getting me excited either.
Find the perfect snowboard? How can that idea get pitched and make the final cut for a $200 a month service? The NFL kicker example is also completely ridiculous.
The business and UX example seems interesting. Would love to see more.