At which point you've gained very little efficiency in most large organizations given that by the time you're actually doing development work at the ticket level 90% of the project timeline (identifying issues, prioritizing, creating requirements, architecture, ticket breakdowns, coordination, etc) has already passed.
If AI can enable engineers to move through the organization more effectively, say by allowing them to work through the service mesh as a whole, that could reduce time. But in order to evaluate code contributions to any space well, as far as I can tell, you still have to put in leg work even if you are an experienced engineer and write some features which exposes you to the libraries, quirks, logging/monitoring, language, etc that make up that specific codebase. (And also to build trust with the people who own that codebase and will be gatekeeping your changes, unless you prefer the Amazon method of having junior engineers YOLO changes onto production codebases without review apparently... holy moly, how did they get to that point in the first place...)
So the gains seem marginal at best in large organizations. I've seen some small organizations move quicker with it, they have less overhead, less complexity, and smaller tasks. Although I've yet to see much besides very small projects/POCs/MVPs from anyone non-technical.
Maybe it'll get to the point where it can handle more complexity, I kind of think we're leveling off on this particular phase of AI, and some headlines seem to confirm that...
- MS starting to make CoPilot a bit less prominent in its products and marketing
- Sora shutting down
- Lots of murky, weird, circular deals to fund a money pit with no profits
- Observations at work
It's really kind of crazy how much our entire society can be hijacked by these hype machines. My company did slow roll AI deployment a bit, but it very much feels like the Wild West, and the amount of money spent! I'm sure it's astronomical. Pretty sure we could have hired contractors to create the Chrome plugin and Kafka topic dashboard we've deployed for far cheaper
- A chrome extension the original "developer" can no longer work on cause the bots will wreck something else on every new feature he tries to add or bug he tries to fix
I think we're a ways out from truly complex code bases that only agents understand.
I've seen a bunch of hype video where people spend lord knows how much money in order to have a bunch of these things run around and I guess... use Facebook, and make reports to distribute amongst themselves, and then the human comes in and spends all their time tweaking this system. And then apparently one day it's going to produce _something_ but two years and counting and much like bitcoin, I've yet to see much of this _something_ materialize in the form of actual, working, quality software that I want to use.
My buddy made a thing that tells him how many people are at the gym by scraping their API and pushing it into a small app package... I guess that's kind of nice.
But if everyone acted like Stallman then solutions that have gone away such as public payphones would come back due to their requirement.
He doesn't give a crap if a random phone record of his appears in a random haystack, and that's kind of the point isn't it? It's the aggregated, crawlable stores that are the threat
There may be other issues with Stallman, but that behavior doesn't strike me as particularly inconsistent
Really? I'd think a human being would be more likely to recognize they'd crossed a boundary with another human, step back, and address the issue with some reflection?
If apologizing is more likely the response of an AI agent than a human that's either... somewhat hopeful in one sense, and supremely disappointing in another.
I guess you could have two people per presentation, one person who confirms whether to slide in the generated slide or maybe regenerate. And then of course, eventually that's just an agent
I was under the impression that often times chip manufacture at the top of the lines failed to be manufactured perfectly to spec and those with say, a core that was a bit under spec or which were missing a core would be down clocked or whatever and sold as the next in line chip.
Is that not a thing anymore? Or would a chip like this maybe be so specialized that you'd use say a generation earners transistor width and thus have more certainty of a successful cast?
Or does a chip this size just naturally ebb around 900,000 cores and that's not always the exact count?
20kwh! Wow! 900,000 cores. 125 teraflops of compute. Very neat
Sounds like you should build a competitor if that's literally all it is...
I suspect there's quite a few other things you have to consider when you're managing trillions of dollars of transactions a year. Fraud, settlement times, up times, security, customer service, debt collection, interest rate calculation, reach, KYC, record keeping, legal inquiries.
But I'm sure we're just a couple grok comments away from a competitor
I've heard "well, you have to change things from the inside" before.
And a lot of people have been there for a while, it wasn't always... quite as bad even if a lot of the warning signs were absolutely there.
I was actually just thinking to myself this morning that I literally have no idea what these feeds look like at this point, but more and more people seem to be looking at me with envy when I say I don't have any lol. I'm kind of curious and might ask my friends if I can see what they're looking at day to day if they'll show me.
Oh ya, AI may be frothy and bubbly right now but there will certainly be and already are tremendous real world software and hardware products and tech flowing out of the space
I think this is the crux of why, when used as an enhancement to solo productivity, you'll have a pretty strict upper bound on productivity gains given that it takes experienced engineers to review code that goes out at scale.
That being said, software quality seems to be decreasing, or maybe it's just cause I use a lot of software in a somewhat locked down state with adblockers and the rest.
Although, that wouldn't explain just how badly they've murdered the once lovely iTunes (now Apple Music) user interface. (And why does CMD-C not pick up anything 15% of the time I use it lately...)
Anyways, digressions aside... the complexity in software development is generally in the organizational side. You have actual users, and then you have people who talk to those users and try to see what they like and don't like in order to distill that into product requirements which then have to be architected, and coordinated (both huge time sinks) across several teams.
Even if you cut out 100% of the development time, you'd still be left with 80% of the timeline.
Over time though... you'll probably see people doing what I do all day (which is move around among many repositories (although I've yet to use the AI much, got my Cursor license recently and am gonna spin up some POCs that I want to see soon)), enabled by their use of AI to quickly grasp what's happening in the repo, and the appropriate places to make changes.
Enabling developers to complete features from tip to tail across deep, many pronged service architectures would could bring project time down drastically and bring project management, and cross team coordination costs down tremendously.
Similarly, in big companies, the hand is often barely aware at best of the foot. And space exploration is a serious challenge. Often folk know exactly one step away, and rely on well established async communication channels which also only know one step further. Principal engineers seem to know large amounts about finite spaces and are often in the dark small hops away to things like the internal tooling for the systems they're maintaining (and often not particularly great at coming in to new spaces and thinking with the same perspective... no we don't need individual micro services for every 12 request a month admin api group we want to set up).
Once systems can take a feature proposal and lay out concrete plans which each little kingdom can give a thumbs up or thumbs down to for further modifications, you can again reduce exploration, coordination, and architecture time down.
Sadly, seems like User Experience design is an often terribly neglected part of our profession. I love the memes about an engineer building the perfect interface like a water pitcher only for the person to position it weirdly in order to get a pour out of the fill hole or something. Lemme guess how many users you actually talked to (often zero), and how many layers of distillation occurred before you received a micro picture feature request that ends up being build and taking input from engineers with no macro understanding of a user's actual needs, or day to day.
And who often are much more interested in perfecting some little algorithm thank thinking about enabling others.
So my money is on money flowing to...
- People who can actually verify system integrity, and can fight fires and bugs (but a lot of bug fixing will eventually becoming prompting?)
- Multi-talented individuals who can say... interact with users well enough to understand their needs as well as do a decent job verifying system architecture and security
It's outside of coding where I haven't seen much... I guess people use it to more quickly scaffold up expense reports, or generate mocks. So, lots of white collar stuff. But... it's not like the experience of shopping at the supermarket has changed, or going to the movies, or much of anything else.
That's been my target for the last... wow... has it nearly been 18 years since I started futzing around with Bitcoin for the first time?
Been a swift drop this time. My buddy goes "if only I sold it all in October", what... like the rest of the people participating in the Ponzi scheme who would also like to cash out at the top?
Looks like all those stupid bitcoin treasury companies are finally unwinding.
At least no one's sitting around pretending it's going to actually do anything useful anymore.
The thing is, if they were uploading your messages, then they'd want to do something with the data.
And humans aren't great at keeping secrets.
So, if the claim is that there's a bunch of data, but everyone who is using it to great gain is completely and totally mum about it, and no one else has ever thought to question where certain inferences were coming from, and no employee ever questioned any API calls or database usage or traffic graph.
Well, that's just about the best damn kept secret in town and I hope my messages are as safe!
Yea, I know, but smart phones are getting bigger and bigger. I'd rather a much nicer camera, and a small dumb phone which texts and calls. As opposed to a smart phone with a much worse camera, that also texts and calls and does maps.
I can just ask people if I need directions. I'm already don't use location services on maps, and usually look things up before I leave anyways.
Just leaving the phone at home is really the nicest thing, and I'll probably continue doing that a fair amount as well.
Yea, when I'm on the move I rarely use more than texting and the camera. So I got a Nokia flip phone, and I'll see how it is. Worst comes to worst it'll be 90 bucks lost and I'll move back to something a bit more full featured. But really I chose for size, and to be able to text and make calls. It's possible I'll end up sticking with my mini for a while.
I also got a really nice pocket camera which I'm much more excited about. It's called a Ricoh, so the camera and the phone should fit in my pockets without any real trouble or bulge. Plus keys, and wallet, and I feel like I'm set.
If AI can enable engineers to move through the organization more effectively, say by allowing them to work through the service mesh as a whole, that could reduce time. But in order to evaluate code contributions to any space well, as far as I can tell, you still have to put in leg work even if you are an experienced engineer and write some features which exposes you to the libraries, quirks, logging/monitoring, language, etc that make up that specific codebase. (And also to build trust with the people who own that codebase and will be gatekeeping your changes, unless you prefer the Amazon method of having junior engineers YOLO changes onto production codebases without review apparently... holy moly, how did they get to that point in the first place...)
So the gains seem marginal at best in large organizations. I've seen some small organizations move quicker with it, they have less overhead, less complexity, and smaller tasks. Although I've yet to see much besides very small projects/POCs/MVPs from anyone non-technical.
Maybe it'll get to the point where it can handle more complexity, I kind of think we're leveling off on this particular phase of AI, and some headlines seem to confirm that...
- MS starting to make CoPilot a bit less prominent in its products and marketing - Sora shutting down - Lots of murky, weird, circular deals to fund a money pit with no profits - Observations at work
It's really kind of crazy how much our entire society can be hijacked by these hype machines. My company did slow roll AI deployment a bit, but it very much feels like the Wild West, and the amount of money spent! I'm sure it's astronomical. Pretty sure we could have hired contractors to create the Chrome plugin and Kafka topic dashboard we've deployed for far cheaper