Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back(npr.org)
npr.org
Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/08/1014095135/barry-diller-headed-2-hollywood-studios-he-now-says-the-movie-business-is-dead
479 comments
Through my work, I have access to Placer.ai, which allows me to track foot traffic to any retail location or chain via visitors' cellphone GPS. Here's AMC's nationwide foot traffic from January 2017 through July 4, 2021.
https://i.imgur.com/s3H7EYj.png
https://i.imgur.com/s3H7EYj.png
I think this interview that gets at a broader point that I find depressing/scary: that the availability of so much data and analysis has ended up "quantizing" creative endeavors to the point where formulaic output is just much, much easier, and that any truly innovative or "misunderstood" productions become much harder to sustain.
I really see this issue everyone nowadays, from movies, TV and music to things like the Olympics. Two good examples: to fix problems with subjectivity and unfairness (which were definitely problems) both gymnastics and ice skating moved from 'fuzzier' 10.0 or 6.0 scales to a 'code of points' model where every element has a fixed value. The result has been that the types of competitors that can win in this model are only the ones that can do the most impressive spins/turns/jumps etc. I mean, I'd be willing to be that you will never again see a 2x "women's" olympic figure skating champion, because you have these young teenagers doing quads now (who almost always lose this ability as they age and develop), but who retire from the sport before they hit 20. These feats are surely impressive, but they also crowd out other types of competitors.
I really see this issue everyone nowadays, from movies, TV and music to things like the Olympics. Two good examples: to fix problems with subjectivity and unfairness (which were definitely problems) both gymnastics and ice skating moved from 'fuzzier' 10.0 or 6.0 scales to a 'code of points' model where every element has a fixed value. The result has been that the types of competitors that can win in this model are only the ones that can do the most impressive spins/turns/jumps etc. I mean, I'd be willing to be that you will never again see a 2x "women's" olympic figure skating champion, because you have these young teenagers doing quads now (who almost always lose this ability as they age and develop), but who retire from the sport before they hit 20. These feats are surely impressive, but they also crowd out other types of competitors.
What I find exhausting is having any systemic criticism of the movie/music industry met with arguments along the lines of: "It was just different, you're merely nostalgic/you have golden age syndrome", and have a hard time answering back with anything except: "It really was better, sometime things do get substantially worse".
While technologically everything has improved, creativity feel like going from the golden age of the greco-roman world to 8th century Europe, where indie bands/movies are like the churches that preserved some measure of past glories. What argument can one make when the burden of proof is to show cultural regression?
While technologically everything has improved, creativity feel like going from the golden age of the greco-roman world to 8th century Europe, where indie bands/movies are like the churches that preserved some measure of past glories. What argument can one make when the burden of proof is to show cultural regression?
Before streaming, a movie studio actually had to convince an audience to leave their houses and buy a ticket to make money from a movie. This meant the studio had to pour a lot of money into marketing for each movie. The cost to market a movie could be up $30M to $50M range for a blockbuster movie. For a mid-budget drama like Meet Joe Black or A River Runs Through It, you could be looking at a marketing budget that matches the production budget ($30M production + $30M marketing). These big marketing costs for every movie meant that the quality of those movies needed to be pretty high to justify the marketing costs. Streamers don’t have to convince people to go out and buy a ticket for every movie they release. They just have to keep the existing subscribers paying and get more people signing up. So the marketing cost per title goes way down. This takes some pressure off to make quality content because the risk per title is lower. Also quality movies on streamers don’t necessarily get the marketing and fanfare they would have before streaming.
The actual quote (with my emphasis added):
> "The movie business *as before* is finished and will never come back."
And I think that's correct. Superhero blockbusters taking over all box office receipts was one thing, but now those blockbusters are becoming deeply tied to streaming services like Disney+ that's bringing content into people's homes and away from movie theatres.
I won't mourn movie theatres (though I hope places emulate the likes of Alamo Drafthouse and do dinner, drinks and let us make an evening out of watching a movie), but I do worry about things like movie financing. It feels the industry has split in two, either making super-expensive superhero blockbusters or super cheap indie films.
It makes me feel like a grouch to complain about the uber-popular, widely loved thing but this intertwined superhero universe exhausts me. I don't want to have to watch three previous movies and two TV shows to fully enjoy the movie that's in front of me. So I watch a lot more limited series TV instead... and maybe that's just fine?
> "The movie business *as before* is finished and will never come back."
And I think that's correct. Superhero blockbusters taking over all box office receipts was one thing, but now those blockbusters are becoming deeply tied to streaming services like Disney+ that's bringing content into people's homes and away from movie theatres.
I won't mourn movie theatres (though I hope places emulate the likes of Alamo Drafthouse and do dinner, drinks and let us make an evening out of watching a movie), but I do worry about things like movie financing. It feels the industry has split in two, either making super-expensive superhero blockbusters or super cheap indie films.
It makes me feel like a grouch to complain about the uber-popular, widely loved thing but this intertwined superhero universe exhausts me. I don't want to have to watch three previous movies and two TV shows to fully enjoy the movie that's in front of me. So I watch a lot more limited series TV instead... and maybe that's just fine?
The business of running movie theatres is what he is talking about and it's certainly changing.
In Denmark the movies Godzilla vs. Kong, Nomadland and Black Widow will not be shown in major cinemas.
The reason is that Warner Bros. and Disney (Marvel) have either shortened the exclusivity period (Warner Bros) or set the streaming premiere at the same day the movie airs in cinemas (Disney).
The core of the issue is that the cinemas have to pay the same amount although the terms are clearly worse.
I can't help but think that the loss in sales of merchandise will take a hit, but i could be wrong and things will continue as they are now.
In Denmark the movies Godzilla vs. Kong, Nomadland and Black Widow will not be shown in major cinemas.
The reason is that Warner Bros. and Disney (Marvel) have either shortened the exclusivity period (Warner Bros) or set the streaming premiere at the same day the movie airs in cinemas (Disney).
The core of the issue is that the cinemas have to pay the same amount although the terms are clearly worse.
I can't help but think that the loss in sales of merchandise will take a hit, but i could be wrong and things will continue as they are now.
Barry Diller is just having a "get off my lawn" moment.
It's like Bob Lutz saying the car business is over, which he did a few years back.
Some things have changed. The difference between "movies" and "TV" has narrowed considerably. Production values for TV are up, and there's not the big distinction between "film work" and "TV work" that there used to be. After all, today "film" is just 2K or 4K video projection.
Another thing that's changed is a few huge franchises sucking up the attention supply. This seems to reflect the Disney mindset of getting a franchise going and milking it for half a century or more. (A Mickey Mouse live-action movie is scheduled for 2022. Really.)
It's like Bob Lutz saying the car business is over, which he did a few years back.
Some things have changed. The difference between "movies" and "TV" has narrowed considerably. Production values for TV are up, and there's not the big distinction between "film work" and "TV work" that there used to be. After all, today "film" is just 2K or 4K video projection.
Another thing that's changed is a few huge franchises sucking up the attention supply. This seems to reflect the Disney mindset of getting a franchise going and milking it for half a century or more. (A Mickey Mouse live-action movie is scheduled for 2022. Really.)
The "movie business" is far from dead, there's an insane amount of production now and the breadth of those productions is far wider. The only death is the exclusivity of the industry, stories like the movie Tangerine (shot on iphones) or the recent release Zola (based on a twitter feed) are reaching audiences along with a ton of others that never would have seen them. Contrary to that, the highest grossing films of all time are mostly within this century and past decade now. There is more representation and choice in video content now than ever before, even if the movie theater industry might not ever go back to it's heyday. I personally am fine with more tailored content, tv or film, beamed into my home on demand over going to a theater
Sure, the _amount_ of content has grown given the lowered technological barrier for entry and the ease of distribution but content quality isn't some finite resource that is spread out within some limit. If anything, more content means more opportunities for truly great stories to come from corners of the world that might not have previously had that opportunity due to any number of reasons.
Plus, these channels have opened up more categories of film to wider audiences. Big budget, full length films and multi-season tv series aren't the only viable options anymore—some of the most talked about media in my circles over the last couple of years have been limited series. Try dragging a brilliant 8 hour limited series across an entire 23 episode season or trimmed down to a two hour film and it's a completely different story.
Brilliant film makers are still brilliant film makers and the number of studios willing to take a chance and fund them has never been greater. The traditional movie-watching experience is still here, it's just no longer the only option. I don't think declaring the movie business as dead is accurate, it has simply evolved and adapted. But from where I sit, this evolution has just given us more stories and more ways to hear them.
Just because you can distribute a story without a year-long PR blitz doesn't mean you can't tell a good story.
Plus, these channels have opened up more categories of film to wider audiences. Big budget, full length films and multi-season tv series aren't the only viable options anymore—some of the most talked about media in my circles over the last couple of years have been limited series. Try dragging a brilliant 8 hour limited series across an entire 23 episode season or trimmed down to a two hour film and it's a completely different story.
Brilliant film makers are still brilliant film makers and the number of studios willing to take a chance and fund them has never been greater. The traditional movie-watching experience is still here, it's just no longer the only option. I don't think declaring the movie business as dead is accurate, it has simply evolved and adapted. But from where I sit, this evolution has just given us more stories and more ways to hear them.
Just because you can distribute a story without a year-long PR blitz doesn't mean you can't tell a good story.
"I used to be in the movie business where you made something really because you cared about it,"
I had the impression,the movie business was a shit show for at least half a century now.
I had the impression,the movie business was a shit show for at least half a century now.
What's ruining cinema is the utter dreck that most people are gagging to watch. I look at my local cinema today and every single movie, save for The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard, is either lazy nostalgia bait, generic marvel film #4715, yet another sequel to a summer blockbuster franchise or a kid's movie. And you people just eat this garbage up.
He's basically saying he doesn't like it anymore and it's not fun. Not that it's not active or making money.
Good deal. Maybe they'll have to go back to the drawing board and quit making spinoffs of remakes, of remakes. And these lame duck "superhero" movies. Puke.
I hate this kind of article. It's an opinion from a knowledgeable person, but it offers no insight at all. The only difference between what Diller said and my uninformed curmudgeonly grumpy opinion is that he used to run a studio.
We're arguably repeating history, where 100 years ago film was the upstart (but rapidly growing) business and vaudeville was the established incumbent. Film offered far more creative possibilities and were dramatically more immersive than the entertainment it replaced.
Today the film industry is the incumbent - profits have peaked, and the upstart video game business has already eclipsed it. Once again, video games have far more creative possibilities and are dramatically more immersive than the films they're replacing.
Today the film industry is the incumbent - profits have peaked, and the upstart video game business has already eclipsed it. Once again, video games have far more creative possibilities and are dramatically more immersive than the films they're replacing.
Studios should create "backlot" theaters where you can come to the set, do Q&A/photos with actors/crew, and see the movie (or, similar to kickstarter, see the dailies/weeklies in progress) with regular screenings and events.
Charge a premium for it, minimal cost to operate, and fans would love it. Would revitalize the role of the actor while generating a unique revenue stream. If multiple studios did it, you could have a meta business around doing "backlot screening" tours.
Charge a premium for it, minimal cost to operate, and fans would love it. Would revitalize the role of the actor while generating a unique revenue stream. If multiple studios did it, you could have a meta business around doing "backlot screening" tours.
I have no clue how they're making money on these movies that are going straight to streaming platforms?
With a movie releasing in theatres there was a sense of urgency to see it on the big screen with big sound and big lights.
Being able to stream it whenever you want from home now means you never will.
Not sure if any platforms do it already but they should try to create a sense of scarcity by offering only a limited number of opening weekend tickets that you can reserve.
With a movie releasing in theatres there was a sense of urgency to see it on the big screen with big sound and big lights.
Being able to stream it whenever you want from home now means you never will.
Not sure if any platforms do it already but they should try to create a sense of scarcity by offering only a limited number of opening weekend tickets that you can reserve.
Black Widow is destroying opening expectations in cinemas as we speak.
Barry Diller is clearly disillusioned with the process, this happens a lot with veterans. But there's a constant supply of wide-eyed youngsters to fill-in those positions with new energy.
I'd say it's a bit premature to declare permanent changes. Streaming will play a stronger role over time, but none of this is new or unexpected. And cinemas will continue to thrive.
Barry Diller is clearly disillusioned with the process, this happens a lot with veterans. But there's a constant supply of wide-eyed youngsters to fill-in those positions with new energy.
I'd say it's a bit premature to declare permanent changes. Streaming will play a stronger role over time, but none of this is new or unexpected. And cinemas will continue to thrive.
I can understand most of Dillers complains but not this one:
"These streaming services have been making something that they call 'movies,' " he said. "They ain't movies. They are some weird algorithmic process that has created things that last 100 minutes or so."
I'd like to know why he disparages writers and directors who work on streaming movies this way and if it has any validity
"These streaming services have been making something that they call 'movies,' " he said. "They ain't movies. They are some weird algorithmic process that has created things that last 100 minutes or so."
I'd like to know why he disparages writers and directors who work on streaming movies this way and if it has any validity
I don't work in the movie industry, but it seems to me the superhero and fast and furious type movies are designed to appeal to young people in America, China, India and Europe. A movie like that offers an incredibly large potential audience.
Three films I watched recently that might have a hard time getting made today are Broken Flowers by Jim Jarmusch starring Bill Murray, After Hours by Martin Scorsese and The Muse by Albert Brooks. I know Martin Scorsese and others have been complaining about the death of cinema, but I don't understand why the two types of movies can't coexist on streaming media. The audience for the latter type is nowhere near as big as the former, but it's not nothing. The world still wants thought provoking art.
Three films I watched recently that might have a hard time getting made today are Broken Flowers by Jim Jarmusch starring Bill Murray, After Hours by Martin Scorsese and The Muse by Albert Brooks. I know Martin Scorsese and others have been complaining about the death of cinema, but I don't understand why the two types of movies can't coexist on streaming media. The audience for the latter type is nowhere near as big as the former, but it's not nothing. The world still wants thought provoking art.
I mean, I don’t disagree with him, but he dates back to the birth of the blockbuster, which was the 70s version of “algorithmic things that last 100 minutes”.
The movie industry has had seismic shifts every couple of decades and has been shrinking since the 1950s.
The movie industry has had seismic shifts every couple of decades and has been shrinking since the 1950s.
The Allen and Co. Sun Valley Conference is winding down.
The pandemic forced a lot of reaction to, realignment of, and reflection on, all of the current paradigms. But nobody was able to meet last year and many conversations that needed to happen were left hanging in abeyance.
As the many attendees represent organizations that pull heavy carts as it is, there is no doubt an eagerness to get the wheels turning again. The sooner the better. But they have also had a year to completely evaluate what was causing them to be so laden prior to February 1st, 2020.
This year's conference will be remembered as a watershed moment. Great food and real-world golf scores notwithstanding.
The pandemic forced a lot of reaction to, realignment of, and reflection on, all of the current paradigms. But nobody was able to meet last year and many conversations that needed to happen were left hanging in abeyance.
As the many attendees represent organizations that pull heavy carts as it is, there is no doubt an eagerness to get the wheels turning again. The sooner the better. But they have also had a year to completely evaluate what was causing them to be so laden prior to February 1st, 2020.
This year's conference will be remembered as a watershed moment. Great food and real-world golf scores notwithstanding.
It seems like the current movie business is mostly just a parasite on the back of 50 year old content (Marvel Silver age, Star Wars universe, Disney catalogs, Netflix 3rd party licensed content, et al.)
The long tail of good content is very long. I wouldn't be surprised if Casablanca still generates annual royalties in excess of it's entire original cost, 80 years later. A great movie is a piece of artwork and like the Mona Lisa centuries later, has a timeless aspect to it.
I don't disagree with Diller per se. In fact, "They ain't movies. They are some weird algorithmic process that has created things that last 100 minutes or so." is one of the best descriptions of modern film I've ever seen.
May it is just because of the limits of the article length, but I think it's far more about short form content and limits of human attention. I'd rather watch several 10-20 minute videos from niche Youtube creators in a week than one two hour movie most of the time, and I can't do both.
In that sense, Katzenberg /Quibli were probably onto something. You have to remember Diller created the anonymous content conglomerate of IAC and is commenting on Quibli from that perspective. He admits himself, at the end, that he's working on backing Broadway productions so he's not satisfied with the content landscape, either. Maybe someone will figure out what it means to make something that squares good content with the time/format demands of a modern viewer.
TL;DR: I'm sick of Fast & Furious and Marvel franchise spin offs. Feels like someone made the film analogue of discovering that kids like candy and will preferentially take it over healthier food when offered.
The long tail of good content is very long. I wouldn't be surprised if Casablanca still generates annual royalties in excess of it's entire original cost, 80 years later. A great movie is a piece of artwork and like the Mona Lisa centuries later, has a timeless aspect to it.
I don't disagree with Diller per se. In fact, "They ain't movies. They are some weird algorithmic process that has created things that last 100 minutes or so." is one of the best descriptions of modern film I've ever seen.
May it is just because of the limits of the article length, but I think it's far more about short form content and limits of human attention. I'd rather watch several 10-20 minute videos from niche Youtube creators in a week than one two hour movie most of the time, and I can't do both.
In that sense, Katzenberg /Quibli were probably onto something. You have to remember Diller created the anonymous content conglomerate of IAC and is commenting on Quibli from that perspective. He admits himself, at the end, that he's working on backing Broadway productions so he's not satisfied with the content landscape, either. Maybe someone will figure out what it means to make something that squares good content with the time/format demands of a modern viewer.
TL;DR: I'm sick of Fast & Furious and Marvel franchise spin offs. Feels like someone made the film analogue of discovering that kids like candy and will preferentially take it over healthier food when offered.
Ed Catmull once pointed out that the movie industry is actually quite cooperative and wants everyone to succeed. The more successful someone else's movie was last week tends to positively influence whether the audience will come back to theaters to see your movie the following week. It occurs to me that this idea is gone from streaming movies. In fact, you're more at odds with your competitors than ever, since you'll basically be competing for the same subscription dollars in the minds of your audience. I'm very interested in what that will mean in the future.
I think "Movies", as we remember them from the decades of yore, will have a resurgence in the near future due to 2 things:
1) The demand for movies outside of what the streaming services are making.
2) Most aspects of movie production go completely digital to bring costs down astronomically.
The easiest way to embrace digital is to just make an animated movie that looks animated with some interesting cool art style / rendering techniques. Maybe the boomer generation doesn't respond well to animation, but Gen X and Millennials are fine with it.
Otherwise, just look at The Mandalorian for an example of what they've been able to do digitally. A huge huge huge Unreal Engine powered screen, instead of your typical green screen. It is linked to the camera so you get proper depth and angles as the camera moves. The lighting is realistic since the screen is actually shooting light onto the actors and props. And the director can see the composition of the shot in real time.
As more aspects of production will go digital like this, costs will go way down. And hopefully we can have our "movies" again =)
1) The demand for movies outside of what the streaming services are making.
2) Most aspects of movie production go completely digital to bring costs down astronomically.
The easiest way to embrace digital is to just make an animated movie that looks animated with some interesting cool art style / rendering techniques. Maybe the boomer generation doesn't respond well to animation, but Gen X and Millennials are fine with it.
Otherwise, just look at The Mandalorian for an example of what they've been able to do digitally. A huge huge huge Unreal Engine powered screen, instead of your typical green screen. It is linked to the camera so you get proper depth and angles as the camera moves. The lighting is realistic since the screen is actually shooting light onto the actors and props. And the director can see the composition of the shot in real time.
As more aspects of production will go digital like this, costs will go way down. And hopefully we can have our "movies" again =)
Oh go fuck yourself, Diller. This happens every 30 years and movie executives act like the sky is falling because they’ve gotten greedy and forgotten that movies should be vehicles to share human experiences and not vehicles to make money. It’s your own fault that you didn’t pay attention to Katzenberg’s warnings 30 years ago.
https://www.wnd.com/2017/06/see-what-1991-disney-memo-predic...
https://www.wnd.com/2017/06/see-what-1991-disney-memo-predic...
Trying to shoehorn a meaningful story into 1.5 hours is not great for storytelling. The production costs for 8 hours of streaming television isn't that much different from 2 hours of movie filming when filming for the same genre in the same manner.
Try to get 1.5 hours of meaningful story out of the recent Netflix production of Shadow and Bone, or any of the Game of Thrones books, without sacrificing major parts of the story (that weren't already being sacrificed in their expanded versions).
Try to get 1.5 hours of meaningful story out of the recent Netflix production of Shadow and Bone, or any of the Game of Thrones books, without sacrificing major parts of the story (that weren't already being sacrificed in their expanded versions).
That interview was rough.
TLDR: The studio and distributor's chokehold on movies is dead.
Hallelujah, good riddance, piss off.
For some historical perspective, 99% had a nice episode about movie theaters. The Megaplex! https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/the-megaplex/
TLDR: The movie theater biz has always been in flux, now is no different.
PS- After the dust settles, I'm sure new gatekeepers will arise. Same as it ever was.
TLDR: The studio and distributor's chokehold on movies is dead.
Hallelujah, good riddance, piss off.
For some historical perspective, 99% had a nice episode about movie theaters. The Megaplex! https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/the-megaplex/
TLDR: The movie theater biz has always been in flux, now is no different.
PS- After the dust settles, I'm sure new gatekeepers will arise. Same as it ever was.
Just as the rise of the internet changed the way people read and pay attention to information, so too did the advent of streaming change the way audiences engage with entertainment.
I can barely sit still through anything that's more than an hour long now, and I can't imagine how I used to sit through entire films back in the day.
I've also noticed that I prefer the series arc format over the superficial cinematic, one and done story, making standard film releases less entertaining for me.
I can barely sit still through anything that's more than an hour long now, and I can't imagine how I used to sit through entire films back in the day.
I've also noticed that I prefer the series arc format over the superficial cinematic, one and done story, making standard film releases less entertaining for me.
I would pay good money to see "the good the bad and the ugly" with my kids in a couple of years. If you compare movie theatres to classical music we seem to play only 10% new content at concert halls, the rest are the 100+ year old classics.