Could you clarify what you mean by “…will be over in a year or so”. Genuine question. Is it that models will be so good that none of this matters or we will need to go back to older ways?
Is the author accounting for the equity built up?
Cash has to go out whether it’s a mortgage or rent. With a mortgage you are building equity. This changes the true math when you sell (leaving aside your ability to now get a HELOC).
Question - isn't P(Hitting | Human Driving) still less than P(Hitting | Tesla FSD) in this particular case [given that if this particular situation comes up - Tesla will fail always whereas some / many humans would not]?
Well that assumes that there are more suppliers available (within the time period under consideration). Over what time period do we assume that more suppliers will be drawn out? An hour? A day? A month?
Isn’t the underlying assumption here that supply is essentially infinite (or at least comparable to demand)? I think is the underlying assumption with any such statement. If the assumption doesn’t hold true then I am not sure the statement holds true (perhaps only till there is some supply).
This is a case of China trying to reduce pollution. Reduce aerosol emissions. The impact of this is lower cooling (aerosol interaction results in atmospheric cooling)
GDP PPP is based on assumptions that - 1) People indifferent countries have the same basket of goods - probably not true for someone living in US vs Chine vs India 2) Accurate pricing data is available (which is not true for big categories like real estate in India and China - a large part of the price is under the table and unaccounted)
All this handwringing about inflation, economy etc. I think it is lot simpler:
Most people are already set on who they will vote for. Perhaps Trump supporters more so than Democrats. So, it all boils down to turnout:
1. Kamala wasn't the candidate to bring out Democrats (no primary, not a popular choice even among Democrats, selected by the DNC)
2. Trump can bring out his voters. The added advantage was a female opponent. A number of his supporter (male and female) have a pretty strong misogynistic streak. They will turn out to vote against a female opponent just because of that. I suspect a male Democratic candidate (even Biden) would have done much better (entirely driven by lower turnout of Trump supporters as they would not have been so committed against a male opponent)
This is further supported by the results of 2018 /2022 mid-terms. Trump was not on the ballot. So, Republican turnout (especially the kind that is in the cult) was impacted and Democrats had a good showing. We will see the same in 2026 (even more so as the economy will tank over the next 2 years and Democrats will come out in force). I predict a clean sweep by Democrats in 2026 perhaps even 60 Senate seats (yes, the economy will be that bad) and then the impeachment will start.