I like that the trailing players strategy (Meta, xAI) is to open source the moat of the leaders. I think we will all benefit from it. and hopefully both the leaders and the trailing players will be much less powerful in the end.
Emigrating is hard. Expect language issue, culture issue, bureaucracy issues. Other countries are not your country but with a different language, living somewhere is not the same as visiting as a tourist.
Emigrating is a generational project, you will forever be a foreigner, your children will be immanent children and only your grandchildren will be true locals.
This is not a government issue, right wing issue, racism, or what not its just a fact of life. Be prepared for it when making the decision.
Common wisdom is often common for a reason. Its good to try new things but expect 9/10 experiments that goes against common wisdom to come up with negative results, it's not that you are not smart, its just 1,000,000 hours of cumulative experience vs your personal 1,000.
This is like a Gardner complaining that you watch him as he works to learn his craft. My dude you do not have to take the job, but most people just accept it as the way the world works. If they feel like they do not want to serve the Chinese they can do that on their own, why do they need the government?
Kernel developer is not the job same as a game developer or an ERP integrator...
But Generalizations aside I think people greatly under estimate how rare is the ability to reduce complex subjects into concrete steps that someone else can follow, human or machine.
Go ask your grandma for a recipe you will find that it never turns out the same, giving her Claude Code is not going to change that.
It's funny how much democracies with free speech are always self critical with rampant doom saying while actual autocracies that crack down on this kind of speech are quiet and content when economic times are good only really cracking at the seams during distress.
I know its a healthy part of democracy but it is very draining.
Coursera is a money losing company with a 10% y/y growth that IPOed at the top of the 2021 hype cycle. Now that the infinite money glitch is over they are in trouble, so they buy a marginally profitable company and slap Synergy and AI on it and pray to the gods of the market for more bountiful harvests of stocks issued.
As someone that is raising money from VCs, I feel really sorry for large VC backed companies right now. What you see here is the Product-VC tension of the AI era, and in a large company its devastating.
Users want a product that delivers the value they are looking for, VCs are looking for infinite AI scale, these do not meet. So founders need to present two different values and visions, one for customers and one for VCs.
In a small early stage company you can pretty easily hide each side from the other so you can deliver value to your customers while dancing the VC dance, but as you get larger its harder.
I think founders will endure and VCs will calm down at some point, but there is going to be some suffering along the way.
Oh and have you heard that they built Cluade code with only 20 people? (ignore 12 years of AI research expertise head-start and that Anthropic now has thousands of developers)
This is the "Factors" Bonanza in finance all over again. You get a generally useful model, then you over-fit it to some criteria and announce advancement in the field, then it performs worse in real life. New infinite academic article glitch just dropped boys!
I love the ending footnote, its the perfect statement to prove his thesis. Just because you understand the problem does not mean you are immune to it. Just because you know smoking is bad for, and you understand the mechanisms of addition, does not mean you manage to quit smoking.
There is a reason games and software have moved to the client server architecture even when it doesn't really makes sense. Its the only way to maintain copyright.
You can hate it, but for the creative types your options are:
Assume it fails and no one knows about it / Assume it succeeds get stolen / build it on the server side