I got to that conclusion based on the work I did in a startup I interned at during the summer before my senior year. I had a project there where I worked with a more senior employee and was able to make significant contributions, despite having only recently learned the technology at that point. I suppose that he would make a good reference. For what it's worth, I've also been told that I'm good by my classmates based on my work on class-related projects or homework. Thanks for the question, though. It's really made me think.
In general I think that I agree with what you're saying. The only point I'd like to make is that he does repeatedly say that he does spend the money on the things that are worth it. He wrote this with the objective of telling content creators directly instead of assuming that they'll just figure it out. If the money backs what he's saying, all the better.
This analogy really doesn't work at all. The factory does lose money on factory time and employee wages. The music company doesn't lose that time when a song is pirated. This is the same old argument of copying vs. theft.
What this guy (the OP) is doing is showing the straight economics of the situation, morals removed. It's a realistic viewpoint because for most people, morals go out the window when they cant see the face of who they wrong. And thats even assuming they see file-sharing as "wrong" to begin with.
Like it or not, this guy is accurately describing the current landscape as a whole. This is what content production companies have to deal with.