Eric Rosenfeld Talking LTCM, Ten Years Laterpaul.kedrosky.com9 points·by john7·vor 17 Jahren·1 comments
john7·vor 16 Jahren·discussNo, Bayesian decision theory does not allow you to reason in that way.Suppose the amounts in the envelopes are A and B. A Bayesian would say:Prob(I have A) = 1/2 and Prob(I have B) = 1/2The expected gain from switching is:Prob(I have A)x(what I'd gain from switching = B-A) + Prob(I have B)x(what I'd gain from switching = A-B)which is: 1/2 x (B-A) + 1/2 x (A-B) = 0
john7·vor 16 Jahren·discussWhy not to read more books:http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/schopenhauer/arthur/lit/chap...
john7·vor 17 Jahren·discussHaving someone else do my laundry for about a dollar a pound. No more buying detergent, waiting around, having to find change if you don't have your own washer/dryer, loading/unloading, folding, etc.