Indeed, it would be interesting to add more features. However, for international games, I saw that it was quite hard to improve accuracy beyond what I already have. One other approach would be to create alternative ranking systems (modified Elo...) and use them as features.
They are quite different indeed. It would be interesting to compare, at the end of the tournament, the likelihoods of both models on all matches. This would give a pretty good idea on how good were the models.
Indeed you are right, the figure showing the "chance to reach, chance to knock-out" was accidentally an outdated one (from a test simulation with a lower number of trials). The real figure will be updated soon.
They are quite close though, good job noticing that!
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it has been updated now