The "Winning Probabilities" chart is calculated "starting from the round of 16". But the "chance-to-reach/chance-of-knockout" graphs below seem to have been calculated at an earlier time - it shows the probability of reaching the round of 16 as less than 1 for each team.
I think the US lost their last group match, but Belgium won theirs, so maybe something like shifted the model probabilities between the time of the 2 graphs.
I think the US lost their last group match, but Belgium won theirs, so maybe something like shifted the model probabilities between the time of the 2 graphs.