Hyperloop Update: Elon Musk Will Start Developing It Himself(forbes.com)
forbes.com
Hyperloop Update: Elon Musk Will Start Developing It Himself
http://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahelliott/2013/08/12/latest-update-elon-musk-will-start-the-hyperloop-himself/
59 comments
Slightly misleading headline: he said he will "probably" build a prototype, but still has no interest day-to-day. He is interested in investing, however.
I love all of these renderings showing transparent tubes. The tubes probably aren't going to be transparent. I'm not even sure who would want to look outside at that speed (besides me), so close to the ground.
The images would be pretty boring if the tubes weren't transparent.
I suppose they could cut holes in them in the image, but that's just like showing them as transparent.
I suppose they could cut holes in them in the image, but that's just like showing them as transparent.
I'm not sure, but in section 4.1.2 of the PDF, it says:
I agree about not wanting to look outside, though. I've travelled on the shinkansen in Japan (which go ~ 1/3 of the speed that the hyperloop is planned at) and it was really hard to look out of the windows for any length of time.
Beautiful landscape will be displayed in the cabin
I agree about not wanting to look outside, though. I've travelled on the shinkansen in Japan (which go ~ 1/3 of the speed that the hyperloop is planned at) and it was really hard to look out of the windows for any length of time.
Nope, no Windows. Screens. The documentation talks to the fact the tube is made of steel, and I'm guessing it's not transparent aluminum.
"...made of steel..." "...it's not transparent aluminum..."
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Emphasis on displayed... It could be a screen.
It all depends what there is to look at. If you are traveling through the forest area, among the trees, the scenery would fly past in a blurred picture if you look out your window. However, if you are traveling over a vast land with Mt.Fuji in the distance, that would be something to look at.
I traveled in the ICE in Germany, also about similar speeds at the shinkansen, and some of the views are breath taking, and some views gave me a migraine.
I traveled in the ICE in Germany, also about similar speeds at the shinkansen, and some of the views are breath taking, and some views gave me a migraine.
Hyperloop would be travelling as fast as a subsonic military jet and at treetop-skimming height, you would definitely get a migraine.
It could also just mean there will be picturesque scenery mounted on the interior.
(I'm not sure I'm joking)
(I'm not sure I'm joking)
It would be interesting if instead of windows, people wore (as an option) something like the ideal version of Oculus Rift, or some other form of VR/AR. Traveling 1Mm/h and it all feels like flying through the air in a comfy seat.
A complementary opportunity for Richard Branson (Space / Air / Ground)
Nothing he hasn't done before. Virgin Trains basically have a monopoly in the UK.
That's a ridiculous statement. Virgin have a contract to run the West Coast Intercity network that connects London with cities up the west side of the UK. They don't have the contract for the East Coast or the networks heading East or West from London including Eurostar which carries more people than airplanes from London to Paris.
Virgin has 1 out of 7 Intercity franchises, and none of the 18 regional franchises. And its one Intercity franchise is currently in limbo - Virgin lost it, but has appealed the decision. They've gotten a temporary extension on their contract while the franchise selection process is reviewed.
Most of the other operators have multiple franchises, either directly or through subsidiaries - Virgin is a quite small player.
Most of the other operators have multiple franchises, either directly or through subsidiaries - Virgin is a quite small player.
As much as I love the Virgin trains in the UK, a substantial part of it is not covered. I travelled down from Scotland through Wales and over into London and only a portion was covered by Virgin (sadly).
Amazon should build some narrow ones.
The London Post Office ran an underground mail rail with small trains from 1927 to 2003:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Post_Office_Railway
Here are cool mail rail photos from some urban spelunkers:
http://www.placehacking.co.uk/2011/04/24/security-breach-lon...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Post_Office_Railway
Here are cool mail rail photos from some urban spelunkers:
http://www.placehacking.co.uk/2011/04/24/security-breach-lon...
I very much enjoyed reading that placehacking article, thank you! :)
This is actually genius. A nationwide tube system feels like it would beat the pants of of trucking.
I'm not sure about narrower though -- maybe the "with car" design could be modified to have shipping containers placed on to the sleds?
I'm not sure about narrower though -- maybe the "with car" design could be modified to have shipping containers placed on to the sleds?
I was thinking about what would a cheap scale demo still be useful for. If you built one out of 2 foot plastic pipe, you might still be able to have a market for parcel delivery systems and therefore make your money back off the prototype investment before you make a bigger one. Linking some hospitals would be a good starting point maybe.
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New York City had a series of tubes (pneumatic tubes, that is) connecting various post offices around Manhattan and even to Brooklyn.
http://untappedcities.com/2013/03/15/nycs-pneumatic-tube-mai...
I was going to say the destruction of it was spearheaded by the automobile companies, but I was confusing that with the fate of the streetcar system in NYC and elsewhere:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspi...
http://untappedcities.com/2013/03/15/nycs-pneumatic-tube-mai...
I was going to say the destruction of it was spearheaded by the automobile companies, but I was confusing that with the fate of the streetcar system in NYC and elsewhere:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspi...
I'd also read that it was upended by the company supplying delivery vans to the postal service: General Motors.
They could sling a package across Manhattan in minutes, but to drive there, then as now, takes a lot longer.
They could sling a package across Manhattan in minutes, but to drive there, then as now, takes a lot longer.
Chicago had a similar thing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Tunnel_Company
I think he's playing politics here, along with creating and riding a marketing wave. I think he'll likely do it all himself, especially since he'll discover more efficiencies and realize it's even more profitable than the current level / depth of research suggests - which is already much more efficient than other systems - even if you take into account the $6 billion to $60 billion comparison isn't apples-to-apples, you could still conceivably create 10 routes at $6 each (or shorter routes costing less), and then gaining the time benefit of transport taking 20 to 35 minutes - instead of 2-5 1/2 hours. I only wish I had the millions right now to building a surf board or two to ride this new wave that will be created. I have to focus on my current version of Elon's "PayPal" first. Patience is a virtue - and sometimes infuriating that things move so slowly.. but that is the game of life that everyone is in.
I think Musk at least sees this as an important learning opportunity that could yield information useful to both SpaceX and Tesla - beyond the goal of making the Hyperloop itself a reality.
Much like what goes on at NASA, really.
Much like what goes on at NASA, really.
> Musk will build a demonstration prototype himself. “I think it might help if I built a demonstration article. I think I probably will do that, actually. I’ve sort of come around in my thinking on that part.”
...After which he reiterates that this is not his top priority, though if it was that it would take just one year by his estimates. I guess we'll all be looking forward to finding out where the prototype will be located (Texas?).
...After which he reiterates that this is not his top priority, though if it was that it would take just one year by his estimates. I guess we'll all be looking forward to finding out where the prototype will be located (Texas?).
I can imagine him being torn on his priorities here, at the very least the Hyperloop project would drain some of his core engineering group which might not be in the best interest of tesla or spaceX.
It will take a real entrepreneur to derisk the project enough though before it can be released under other management. At the very least this marketing wave will aid him in securing enough funding/political capital to build a prototype somewhere.
It will take a real entrepreneur to derisk the project enough though before it can be released under other management. At the very least this marketing wave will aid him in securing enough funding/political capital to build a prototype somewhere.
In the cavity between the two tubes and the solar panels, there might be space for a freight transport tube?
There will also likely be additional capacity on the main tubes.
I doubt the system will be running as often at 2am as it does at 7am
I doubt the system will be running as often at 2am as it does at 7am
Anybody want to make a longbet against Musk?
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This is Elon's Segway - unproven, hyped up technology. This always happens with successful people/companies - they feel like they can do anything and can't fail - throwing rationality into the wind. I love Elon, but this is not worth his time at the moment.
The man publish a 40 pages technical document and you dismiss it with a comment. At least provide a single argument
No prototype - nothing even remotely close to a prototype. At least rockets and electric cars had some basis in reality before Elon started working on them.
High-speed trains don't have a basis for reality? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinkansen
The hyperloop is not a high-speed train.
The Space-X rocket isn't a rocket.
The Tesla Roadster isn't an electric car.
See what I did there?
The Tesla Roadster isn't an electric car.
See what I did there?
This isn't like any other high speed train in existence. The rail cars have more in common with a vtol jet than the train you linked.
I don't think Elon Musk is being irrational about the Hyperloop. I think he understands the constraints on his time. SpaceX had 3 failures before successfully reaching orbit.
If theres one about Elon Musk is that believes not only that he can fail, but that that failure is the most likely outcome. He has said this in interviews before.
If theres one about Elon Musk is that believes not only that he can fail, but that that failure is the most likely outcome. He has said this in interviews before.
I think you're being a bit unfair here. First, the Segway is now entrenched in our society, thus it's lived up to a lot of its hype (though not all haha). Second, your main complaint seems to be that he's talking about it before showing a prototype. You're being an unnecessarily harsh critic IMO if you require that each idea presented to you must have a physical component.
Agree with the criticism of the above comment, but I think "the Segway is now entrenched in our society" is a very bold (and unfounded, IMO) claim.
I've set to see a single one in the flesh. The only ones I've seen in photographs are tourist gimmicks. Granted, I've never travelled to North America, but I do live in a developed western country.
I've set to see a single one in the flesh. The only ones I've seen in photographs are tourist gimmicks. Granted, I've never travelled to North America, but I do live in a developed western country.
> This is Elon's Segway - unproven, hyped up technology.
Hyperloop was definitely overhyped and the specific targetting of California HSR -- a comparatively near-term project using existing, well-established technology that involves deep transit connections throughout the populated parts of the State to support the main HSR corridors was a nonsensical part of that hype.
That said, the technology is interesting, and at worst Musk investing in developing a prototype will be a learning opportunity. We need more people with Musk's resources investing in longer-range, novel technologies.
Hyperloop was definitely overhyped and the specific targetting of California HSR -- a comparatively near-term project using existing, well-established technology that involves deep transit connections throughout the populated parts of the State to support the main HSR corridors was a nonsensical part of that hype.
That said, the technology is interesting, and at worst Musk investing in developing a prototype will be a learning opportunity. We need more people with Musk's resources investing in longer-range, novel technologies.
It seems reusing his current tech and knowledge though.
I don't see how an average person can lose if Musk attempts to build something for his own money. And I don't understand why does it bother you.
- Musk will build a demonstration prototype himself. “I think it might help if I built a demonstration article. I think I probably will do that, actually. I’ve sort of come around in my thinking on that part.”
- For now, this is a low priority for Musk. “Maybe I would just do the beginning bit, create a subscale version that is operating and then hand it over to someone else. Ironing out the details at a subscale level is a tricky thing. I think I would probably end up doing that. It just won’t be immediate in the short term because I have to focus on Tesla and SpaceX execution.”
- If it was his first priority, he could have it done in a year. “The demonstration project would not be anything that required some sort of big government approval process,” he said.
- Musk will invest his own money into this project, even though he hopes others will help as well. “I always invest my own money in the companies that I create. I don’t believe in the whole thing of just using other people’s money. I don’t think that’s right. I’m not going to ask other people to invest in something if I’m not prepared to do so myself.”
- But it’s okay if it doesn’t make him a lot of money. “I’m not trying to make a ton of money on this but I would like to see it come to fruition,” he said. “I don’t really care much one way or another if I have any economic benefit or another, but it would be cool to see an alternate form of transport.”
It'a not clear whether Musk actually said he intends to build a proof of concept or whether the writer took his "probably" too far.
If anyone finds a more complete transcript of the teleconference, please post it.