The sad state of Detroit: outlook falls with home prices(chicagotribune.com)
chicagotribune.com
The sad state of Detroit: outlook falls with home prices
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-detroit-housingjan29,0,5435392.story
31 comments
It's hard to imagine anything on that scale. Centralia PA (former pop. 2600) was deserted due to major underground fires. But real cities have bounced back from far larger disasters. Hiroshima lost 2/3 of its population but recovered in 10 years.
Remember, though, the actual city of Detroit is only 1/5 of the population of the metro area. While Detroit is failing, the metro area is only hurting. It won't be abandoned.
Remember, though, the actual city of Detroit is only 1/5 of the population of the metro area. While Detroit is failing, the metro area is only hurting. It won't be abandoned.
Note: The fires at Centralia will be burning for 100 years -- they cause sink holes and other dangers.
I'm not so sure giving up on a city would work so well unless you leveled it, ripped out the entire infrastructure and planted a lot of flowers.
At any rate, abandoning and ripping down historic architecture and craftsmanship is a terrible waste. Especially if you're just going to replace it with cardboard buildings and fancy facades. I think we'd be better off throwing the money at a group of un-corruptible, "really smart" people. There is a real opportunity to experiment with urban planning, development, and social programs to see if there is any way to turn it around.
If I had my way, I'd just build a wall around the city and turn it into a prison. Imagine how much wealth you could create making reality tv shows "from within the wall."
At any rate, abandoning and ripping down historic architecture and craftsmanship is a terrible waste. Especially if you're just going to replace it with cardboard buildings and fancy facades. I think we'd be better off throwing the money at a group of un-corruptible, "really smart" people. There is a real opportunity to experiment with urban planning, development, and social programs to see if there is any way to turn it around.
If I had my way, I'd just build a wall around the city and turn it into a prison. Imagine how much wealth you could create making reality tv shows "from within the wall."
> I think we'd be better off throwing the money at a group of un-corruptible, "really smart" people. There is a real opportunity to experiment with urban planning, development, and social programs to see if there is any way to turn it around.
If 'throwing the money at a group of un-corruptible, "really smart" people' was an actual option, would Detroit be in the state that it's in?
> There is a real opportunity to experiment with urban planning, development, and social programs to see if there is any way to turn it around.
How do you think Detroit got to be the way that it is?
If 'throwing the money at a group of un-corruptible, "really smart" people' was an actual option, would Detroit be in the state that it's in?
> There is a real opportunity to experiment with urban planning, development, and social programs to see if there is any way to turn it around.
How do you think Detroit got to be the way that it is?
> If 'throwing the money at a group of un-corruptible, "really smart" people' was an actual option, would Detroit be in the state that it's in?
Answering my own question.... http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090301/O...
Answering my own question.... http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090301/O...
There have been a few that have been abandoned for environmental reasons. Prypiat, Ukraine comes to mind as one example. In that case, all 50,000 residents were forced to quickly abandon the city due to the nearby Chernobyl accident.
Well, that made for some surreal reading.
There is no major grocery chain in the city, and only two movie theaters
I grew up in a town of 2000 people and we had 2 chain grocery stores. I'm guessing a walmart would be robbed blind, especially with an explicit corporate no-kill policy.
There is no major grocery chain in the city, and only two movie theaters
I grew up in a town of 2000 people and we had 2 chain grocery stores. I'm guessing a walmart would be robbed blind, especially with an explicit corporate no-kill policy.
The theater part seems to be overdramatized:
http://www.google.ca/movies?hl=en&near=detroit&dq=de...
There are two in Detroit. Warren, MI, where the next closest theater is, is half an hour away.
That's the way it is in at least 75% of US cities. The "Donut-hole" phenomena is long standing. Just as an example, Detroit seems to have a comparable number of screens to Los Angeles proper: http://www.google.ca/movies?sc=1&hl=en&near=los+ange...
The multiplex is almost always at least somewhat suburban.
The multiplex is almost always at least somewhat suburban.
I bet they wouldn't let a Wal-Mart in Detroit. See Chicago.
If it weren't for the immobility of building capital, Detroit would probably no longer exist. As is, it exists only because of the low level of demand for its buildings makes it the kind of place that the poor and desperate can afford to live, which further lowers the level of demand for its buildings.
Not even the homeless are moving into the city. The poor and desperate can't afford to leave. Sell your grandfather's house for 10k and go where? Once houses really become worthless, even more people will begin to walk away.
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Since when the solution to all problems is a government bailout? A bailout is the kind of "temporary" measure that Ayn Rand mocked so heavily in her now famous book.
Lower your burn, move to Detroit and buy a house for 2-3 months SF rent.
Problem is, the houses are that cheap for good reason.
""It can be dangerous and it's definitely exciting," said McIlvaine, who had served as a sergeant in U.S. Air Force and started his retail career in security. "Your adrenaline is flowing as you are checking the house. You don't know what to expect."
Once the home is vacated and the locks are changed, McIlvaine can spend thousands of dollars cleaning it up. He leaves it to the sheriff to dispose of what's deemed the homeowner's personal property, while hiring contractors to haul out the trash. He never ever opens the refrigerator, a lesson he learned the hard way after looking in a freezer filled with rotten fish."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/news/economy/mcilvaine/?post...
Once the home is vacated and the locks are changed, McIlvaine can spend thousands of dollars cleaning it up. He leaves it to the sheriff to dispose of what's deemed the homeowner's personal property, while hiring contractors to haul out the trash. He never ever opens the refrigerator, a lesson he learned the hard way after looking in a freezer filled with rotten fish."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/news/economy/mcilvaine/?post...
Supply for them exceeds demand. That would depress the price of flawless diamonds.
Here's an anecdote for you: in Nagoya, you can pay $700 a month for a one-room apartment. Not an awesomely located fully-furnished palatial one room apartment, just your generic twenty-something sleeping quarters which is about the size of many Americans' closet.
In my town, I pay $450 a month for a three-room apartment. It was so clean when I moved in that I suspected they had put artificial sparkle on the walls.
The whole of the reason it is cheap and Nagoya is not is that my town, sort of like Detroit, has some systemic economic issues which discourage young people from living there. Accordingly, after graduation they move to Nagoya to work, pushing the price of real estate there even higher and making landlords in my town even more desperate to offload inventory.
Here's an anecdote for you: in Nagoya, you can pay $700 a month for a one-room apartment. Not an awesomely located fully-furnished palatial one room apartment, just your generic twenty-something sleeping quarters which is about the size of many Americans' closet.
In my town, I pay $450 a month for a three-room apartment. It was so clean when I moved in that I suspected they had put artificial sparkle on the walls.
The whole of the reason it is cheap and Nagoya is not is that my town, sort of like Detroit, has some systemic economic issues which discourage young people from living there. Accordingly, after graduation they move to Nagoya to work, pushing the price of real estate there even higher and making landlords in my town even more desperate to offload inventory.
Without getting into a "mine is bigger than yours" game - I'd just like to note that I have a 600 square foot bachelor-suite (no bedroom), in a very, very old apartment building overlooking (complete with sound) the 101 freeway in a low income (and un-walkable) neighborhood of Redwood City and pay $1210/month + $65 water/sewer/garbage.
On the flip side, I used to fly out to Detroit and was interested in some of these $10,000 houses, but we could never work up the nerve to actually go into the neighborhoods out near 8 mile that had them, and I can't imagine living there.
Has anyone on HN been out to Detroit recently? There are many parts of that city that are like a war zone in terms of building/lot damage, and others that I would not go without armed escort. I guess this is just another way of saying the "absolute value" of property is pretty low in Detroit as well.
It's kind of like the "Anti-Paul-Graham-Geographic-Recipe-for-a-successful-startup-community" type of environment.
On the flip side, I used to fly out to Detroit and was interested in some of these $10,000 houses, but we could never work up the nerve to actually go into the neighborhoods out near 8 mile that had them, and I can't imagine living there.
Has anyone on HN been out to Detroit recently? There are many parts of that city that are like a war zone in terms of building/lot damage, and others that I would not go without armed escort. I guess this is just another way of saying the "absolute value" of property is pretty low in Detroit as well.
It's kind of like the "Anti-Paul-Graham-Geographic-Recipe-for-a-successful-startup-community" type of environment.
I was in downtown Detroit on Saturday night, and I felt safe and had a good time, though I was near the "reinvigorated neighborhood around Wayne State" referenced in the article. There are lots of cool places in downtown Detroit. Good restaurants, art, theater, music, it's all there. In the summer there are some great outdoor music festivals.
But one of the interesting things about Detroit is that you're never far from urban decay. Even nice houses, or the revitalized part of Woodward, is at most 2 or 3 blocks from abandoned buildings and boarded-up houses.
But one of the interesting things about Detroit is that you're never far from urban decay. Even nice houses, or the revitalized part of Woodward, is at most 2 or 3 blocks from abandoned buildings and boarded-up houses.
You're getting ripped off.
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/pen?query=&minAsk...
Not by much. Most of those places seem to go for $1150-$1200.
Most of them have more space.
> Supply for them exceeds demand.
No argument, but my statement was shorthand for "supply exceeds demand for good reason", since "supply exceeds demand" is usually the same as "prices are low".
Now, it could be that there's just too few people in Detroit for the property, but from other stories, it would appear that these low cost houses may come without wiring or piping, that having been stolen to sell as scrap or the like, and other forms of vandalism seem likely, too. I'm not saying that there aren't some that are worth it; I'm considering buying a house or two at these prices, myself. :)
No argument, but my statement was shorthand for "supply exceeds demand for good reason", since "supply exceeds demand" is usually the same as "prices are low".
Now, it could be that there's just too few people in Detroit for the property, but from other stories, it would appear that these low cost houses may come without wiring or piping, that having been stolen to sell as scrap or the like, and other forms of vandalism seem likely, too. I'm not saying that there aren't some that are worth it; I'm considering buying a house or two at these prices, myself. :)
I think the bigger issue is crime. No price is a good deal if you get shot. And you can't rent out a house for any decent amount if the tenants could just buy the house next door for $7500 (and then get shot for it).
I've heard similar things happened in East Boston during the '91 real estate bust. It had been a recently gentrifying area, but when the economy fell, the yuppies moved out, property values fell, and the crime moved in. That made house prices fall farther, so that by the end of the bust, condos that had been selling for $200k were going for $40k.
I've heard similar things happened in East Boston during the '91 real estate bust. It had been a recently gentrifying area, but when the economy fell, the yuppies moved out, property values fell, and the crime moved in. That made house prices fall farther, so that by the end of the bust, condos that had been selling for $200k were going for $40k.
I thought a lot of those sales came with stipulations that the house be fixed up in a certain amount of time. If not, it is a pretty good price. You would think that the materials cost more than that.
Expect the valuable materials to be gone. For example, http://www.michronicleonline.com/articlelive/articles/2440/1... .
Like all things, the price of copper is down significantly. It's 25% of what it was when that article was published. Not saying the problem is completely solved by that, but it's got to be mitigated somewhat.
Yeah, but then you're stuck with the property taxes until you can find another buyer.
Are there modern cases of abandonment of a major metropolitan area? (I don't mean losing 50+% of population, or large-scale migration to the suburbs like STL, I mean actual wholesale abandonment of a city).
It seems that with hundreds of thousands of people, Detroit and NOLA are still going to survive for quite a while, but at what point do we just declare a city below critical-mass for survival and start working on transitioning people out?
At some point it has to cost far more to provide fire and other basic service coverage to these heavily-built but sparsely inhabited areas than they could ever hope to return in revenue. Cities regularly clear out large areas for urban rehab or sports stadiums, would it be plausible (if even ethical) to just buy out 50,000 people and ask them to leave?