Twitter is going to die(ideasonideas.com)
ideasonideas.com
Twitter is going to die
http://www.ideasonideas.com/2008/12/twitter-is-going-to-die/
20 comments
the real world is like high school
I'm interested to hear your argument on this, mostly because I've found the real world to be nothing like high school. When it comes to "Web 2.0" startups right now, sure, today's "hotness" might be nothing tomorrow, but the companies that rely on sheer high school-like popularity will fail sooner or later, just like those types of people eventually failed following high school.
In cases of direct correlation, I at least see it working both ways. Yes, there will be edge cases; certain people seem to be able to make a living online without actually providing anything of real worth, but this is hardly confined to the Web; tabloids have been doing it for decades.
I'm interested to hear your argument on this, mostly because I've found the real world to be nothing like high school. When it comes to "Web 2.0" startups right now, sure, today's "hotness" might be nothing tomorrow, but the companies that rely on sheer high school-like popularity will fail sooner or later, just like those types of people eventually failed following high school.
In cases of direct correlation, I at least see it working both ways. Yes, there will be edge cases; certain people seem to be able to make a living online without actually providing anything of real worth, but this is hardly confined to the Web; tabloids have been doing it for decades.
Popularity matters, self-promotion matters, etc. It matters a ton. That's how distribution happens. As a startup, that's the most important thing out there. We get stuck in 'if you build it they will come' mode when we build our startups, but it's just not true.
Spend a few minutes looking at quantcast/compete/alexa's top 1000 and it's clear that the web is high school. From my high horse, it's filled with non-enjoyable, valueless, spammy, low-brow cruft. But my high horse doesn't mean a damn -- the only thing that matters is $$$ =)
Spend a few minutes looking at quantcast/compete/alexa's top 1000 and it's clear that the web is high school. From my high horse, it's filled with non-enjoyable, valueless, spammy, low-brow cruft. But my high horse doesn't mean a damn -- the only thing that matters is $$$ =)
"Twitter is high-school"
Author needs to open their minds just a little more and they'll realize.
"Practically all social networking sites/things is high-school."
Author needs to open their minds just a little more and they'll realize.
"Practically all social networking sites/things is high-school."
Because publicly predicting the deaths of things (Perl, Python, Facebook, MySpace, digg, reddit, Apple) based on one or two people's opinions always works out.
Interesting how the author completely dodged around twitters lack of revenue problem. As of right now, twitter is having no trouble keeping afloat and will possibly have a revenue model in a couple years. When twitter makes money it won't "die" for quite some time, if twitter fails to make money, it will carry along like it always has, propelled by its first mover status and the hype it's created throughout all the years. I say this while setting the "its like high school" and "everyone just collects followers" arguments aside. Those seem to be hyperbole reasons to justify an argument that has no tangible bearing on twitters actual situation and status as a company and as a service.
Or - this is just a thought here - he just doesn't care?
Is he responsible for ensuring Twitter has a financial future? No. Are you? No.
He's more interested in the social interaction aspect of the site, if he wanted to talk about revenue I'm sure he would have.
Is he responsible for ensuring Twitter has a financial future? No. Are you? No.
He's more interested in the social interaction aspect of the site, if he wanted to talk about revenue I'm sure he would have.
I doubt it, given how weak his argument that twitter is going to die based on perceived reasons like "its like high school" and "people just collect followers" make me wonder if this guy really knows what he's talking about or is he just going for a shock title. I just think if we're writing articles called "twitter is going to die" and giving reasons to support that based on the social interaction aspects of the site (like you stated), then better reasons should be stated. Contrary to his argument, i'm sure twitter is not like "high school" to millions of users, and people are not just "making" or "collecting" friends but rather tapping into their interests and networks to stay updated on things in real time. I've seen similar arguments made for myspace, but twitter is a fundamentally different type of social site, so the "collecting followers" argument dosn't hold up as well here.
I rarely know what I'm talking about. Thanks for the insights. ;-)
I couldn't have said it better myself.
Twitter's issues surrounding its revenue model are a discussion that I didn't want to touch at this time. (It's a long enough post as is.)
Twitter's issues surrounding its revenue model are a discussion that I didn't want to touch at this time. (It's a long enough post as is.)
So, it doesn’t matter that someone says really interesting things, it just matters that you’re friends with the prom-queen.
Noo.... what matters on Twitter is that the prom-queen is friends with you.
Noo.... what matters on Twitter is that the prom-queen is friends with you.
I don't know. The people I follow on Twitter don't seem to use it in the "high school" way, and neither do I - I don't automatically follow someone just because they follow me. I might, if they're saying interesting or fun stuff; I'm not saying I only tweet nuggets of wisdom myself, but I do aim for some degree of quality.
I don't follow "influencial" people for the sake of it, I have my doubts that really helps. On the other hand, I've met some really cool people and also clients through it, which helped a lot, especially as I moved to Vienna knowing virtually nobody.
I have however found that I do need to keep my follow list in check, or the stream of information is overwhelming.
I don't follow "influencial" people for the sake of it, I have my doubts that really helps. On the other hand, I've met some really cool people and also clients through it, which helped a lot, especially as I moved to Vienna knowing virtually nobody.
I have however found that I do need to keep my follow list in check, or the stream of information is overwhelming.
Sounds more like a maturity problem, probably reminiscent of what email had decades ago.
I'd love some client-side filtering & prioritization of my twitter data. While it doesn't have the same archival needs of email, I definitely care more about my infrequently-twitting friends than the dozens of them coming off the more famous tweeters.
As for high school, that's what you get when any social system starts to stagnate.
I'd love some client-side filtering & prioritization of my twitter data. While it doesn't have the same archival needs of email, I definitely care more about my infrequently-twitting friends than the dozens of them coming off the more famous tweeters.
As for high school, that's what you get when any social system starts to stagnate.
Checkout stocktwits.com . I use the application regularly and have nothing but good things about the app.
Yaw, software VC is reeling a bit... But do you honestly think that the investors that Twitter has won't throw a few million at it to keep it running given that it's growth curve is so outstanding? Dead in 6 months is a near-ridiculous prediction.
I'm not implying that the company will be out of business in 6 months. My suggestion is that given it's rate of acceleration, mass fatigue with it will start to set in amongst many and soon.
Perhaps the title should have read: We're going to have to change how we use Twitter. Then of course, that seems a little dull, doesn't it? :-)
Perhaps the title should have read: We're going to have to change how we use Twitter. Then of course, that seems a little dull, doesn't it? :-)
mass fatigue with it will start to set in amongst many and soon
What, you mean like it did with email and the telephone? ;)
I think Twitter will have a lot of staying power. The magic of Twitter is that it remains very simple relative to, say, Facebook. There is a very bare-bones set of social-networking relationships: Basically, you can follow, and you can be followed. And following doesn't necessarily carry the social subtext of, say, your Facebook friend list, perhaps because it comes with far fewer consequences, ramifications, and options.
I find it interesting that my (now nearly middle-aged) generation has finally discovered Facebook en masse... and that the number one use case seems to be "keeping in touch with your classmates from high school and college". Facebook was originally designed for students, and that design permeates its DNA to the point that even people who've been out of school for twenty years revert back to Student Mode when they use it: It becomes an ongoing class reunion. But I don't think Twitter will work out quite the same. I think Twitter is more like the phone: In the hands of teens, it's a gossip tool. In the hands of corporate consultants, it's a business tool. In the hands of moms, it's a parenting tool. It's sufficiently abstract that people can find their own uses for it.
I mean, take me. I just don't understand what this fuss is about, anymore than a corporate Blackberry user understands the culture of middle-school text messaging. I don't use Twitter as a high-schoolish gossiping tool and I never have. I don't follow that many people, and I don't see a high volume of tweets. I don't tweet much myself, and I have very few followers. I don't talk to personal friends on Twitter. (Most of them are not there yet; As I said, a lot of them are only just starting to digest Facebook. They'll need another two or three years to discover Twitter.) I still don't understand what these #hashtags really do for you or where you go to see them. I'm the most boring, out-of-touch Twitter user in the world. But I still love it. So I don't think Twitter is going anywhere soon. Fads will come and fads will go, but the desire to communicate goes on.
What, you mean like it did with email and the telephone? ;)
I think Twitter will have a lot of staying power. The magic of Twitter is that it remains very simple relative to, say, Facebook. There is a very bare-bones set of social-networking relationships: Basically, you can follow, and you can be followed. And following doesn't necessarily carry the social subtext of, say, your Facebook friend list, perhaps because it comes with far fewer consequences, ramifications, and options.
I find it interesting that my (now nearly middle-aged) generation has finally discovered Facebook en masse... and that the number one use case seems to be "keeping in touch with your classmates from high school and college". Facebook was originally designed for students, and that design permeates its DNA to the point that even people who've been out of school for twenty years revert back to Student Mode when they use it: It becomes an ongoing class reunion. But I don't think Twitter will work out quite the same. I think Twitter is more like the phone: In the hands of teens, it's a gossip tool. In the hands of corporate consultants, it's a business tool. In the hands of moms, it's a parenting tool. It's sufficiently abstract that people can find their own uses for it.
I mean, take me. I just don't understand what this fuss is about, anymore than a corporate Blackberry user understands the culture of middle-school text messaging. I don't use Twitter as a high-schoolish gossiping tool and I never have. I don't follow that many people, and I don't see a high volume of tweets. I don't tweet much myself, and I have very few followers. I don't talk to personal friends on Twitter. (Most of them are not there yet; As I said, a lot of them are only just starting to digest Facebook. They'll need another two or three years to discover Twitter.) I still don't understand what these #hashtags really do for you or where you go to see them. I'm the most boring, out-of-touch Twitter user in the world. But I still love it. So I don't think Twitter is going anywhere soon. Fads will come and fads will go, but the desire to communicate goes on.
I disagree with this blog article, and your response is dead on.
its not
Twitter is like high school because the real world is like high school. Web 2.0 is DEFINITELY like high school. Even if we wish it weren't so.