Ad Tech Could Be the Next Internet Bubble(wired.com)
wired.com
Ad Tech Could Be the Next Internet Bubble
https://www.wired.com/story/ad-tech-could-be-the-next-internet-bubble/
3 comments
I’m a big tech scientist that’s done work as a consultant in the ad tech space. The data is so unreliable and garbage that it’s almost impossible to do anything with. The data comes from so many different sources, all of which may be suspect, you can’t tell what’s real and what’s fraud. And the deeper you dig, the more problems you find. I wouldn’t put money in it.
I'm not sure that's true. I'm on spend side and the on platform performance of instagram, facebook newsfeed and google adwords marketing seems undeniable. You can (and many have) gone direct to consumer on whatever brand / product your pushing very successfully with clear ROI.
Another niche. If you do anything highly variable / custom - think music concerts - you can target very specifically towards demos for that artist and get amazing ROI. Run the campaigns for one artist, take a similar artist, no digital promo - FAR fewer folks showing up.
Now in terms of third party stuff - total trash. There is a reason google wants to track you on the web. My guess is as the privacy push gets stronger, that third party network stuff, which is already weak, will fall through the floor, because the tracking is not only for ad targeting but some is designed to help (a bit) with fraud prevention - which is a massive issue on third party networks (and I include Facebook's non direct advertising etc here).
Another niche. If you do anything highly variable / custom - think music concerts - you can target very specifically towards demos for that artist and get amazing ROI. Run the campaigns for one artist, take a similar artist, no digital promo - FAR fewer folks showing up.
Now in terms of third party stuff - total trash. There is a reason google wants to track you on the web. My guess is as the privacy push gets stronger, that third party network stuff, which is already weak, will fall through the floor, because the tracking is not only for ad targeting but some is designed to help (a bit) with fraud prevention - which is a massive issue on third party networks (and I include Facebook's non direct advertising etc here).
Also a data scientist, and I used to work on assessing marketing campaign effectiveness. My experience is exactly the same.
There is a lot of fear mongering and false analogies in this article.
1) For sure the state of online ads right now is overhyped. But to claim it's therefore all a bubble and you can't derive value from targeted instagram ads, or adwords doesn't withstand basic scrutiny.
2) The subprime mortgage crisis collapsed the way it did because money was owed that couldn't be paid back. This is not the case here, the money is simply spent with no ROI. One could argue this is a positive as it means there is money in the economy that could/will be put to better use.
If google and facebook shrink gradually in the next 10 years this is a net positive imo. But to claim it will be a mass exodus, and collapse the market overnight seems a bit stretched.
1) For sure the state of online ads right now is overhyped. But to claim it's therefore all a bubble and you can't derive value from targeted instagram ads, or adwords doesn't withstand basic scrutiny.
2) The subprime mortgage crisis collapsed the way it did because money was owed that couldn't be paid back. This is not the case here, the money is simply spent with no ROI. One could argue this is a positive as it means there is money in the economy that could/will be put to better use.
If google and facebook shrink gradually in the next 10 years this is a net positive imo. But to claim it will be a mass exodus, and collapse the market overnight seems a bit stretched.
FB shrinks, meaning fewer engineers making six figures, meaning rent goes down and all of those high end apartments are only worth 50% what you told the bank it's worth when you took out the loan to build it. If this happened right after the already low rent from the covid slump it could be big trouble. Question is, is there enough money tied up in this where it would make another 2008-sized problem?