The most surprising demographic crisis(economist.com)
economist.com
The most surprising demographic crisis
http://www.economist.com/node/18651512
38 comments
The among the easiest solutions to a surplus of men is encouraging their emigration and would have the benefits of reducing domestic population and the improved standard of living which often accompanies remittances by expatriates.
A more likely scenario than the more romantic notion of space colonization.
A more likely scenario than the more romantic notion of space colonization.
They are killing the surplus men. China has one of the highest rates of male tobacco smokers in the world, but one of the lowest rates of female smokers.
Too slow to have any effect.
The average age of people diagnosed with lung cancer is 70 years old. 3% of all cases are found in people under the age of 45. (http://menshealth.about.com/od/cancer/a/lung_cancer.htm)
The average age of people diagnosed with lung cancer is 70 years old. 3% of all cases are found in people under the age of 45. (http://menshealth.about.com/od/cancer/a/lung_cancer.htm)
War could be a "convenient" way for China to both reduce the number of young men (they are either on foreign soil or bured beneath it) and increase China's access to foreign resources. And the men most likely to be foot soldiers would probably the less educated ones.
Well, if this[0] article is correct, the surplus of men is 32 million. They'd have to invade a whole lot of countries to suffer that many casualties.
0: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/world/asia/11china.html
0: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/world/asia/11china.html
Import women or kill the surplus men?! Could we please tone down the vitriol? Frankly, the barbarism your "solutions" presupposes is quite offensive.
I don't think parent is advocating anything, just talking about the dangers involved in the situation. And it is a dangerous situation.
A large group of young men unable to find a mate is a large group of unhappy humans of the type which are traditionally most likely to resort to violence. I'm against this violence, sure. But when a society creates a situation like this and it is really stirring up some possibilities that we have to be aware of - to be able to prevent the violence.
A large group of young men unable to find a mate is a large group of unhappy humans of the type which are traditionally most likely to resort to violence. I'm against this violence, sure. But when a society creates a situation like this and it is really stirring up some possibilities that we have to be aware of - to be able to prevent the violence.
This concept that men will wreck havoc upon society simply because they cannot find a "mate" genuinely surprises me. What's this based on? Historical anecdotes of which I'm simply not aware of? There are LOTS of single men in Western countries who don't have a partner and most finds ways to deal with it without resorting to violence (work, friends, hobbies, pets). Not sure why the Chinese are supposed to function otherwise.
Because in the West it's individual, not systemic. Hypothetical singleton knows if he wanted to, he could find someone, he's just not interested right now.
Incidentally, there is a good example of a country where there are surplus males, due to healthcare priorities, and some men have 4 wives, further exacerbating the imbalance, and a culture that frowns on both casual sex and homosexuality. Perhaps you've heard of it? Afghanistan.
Incidentally, there is a good example of a country where there are surplus males, due to healthcare priorities, and some men have 4 wives, further exacerbating the imbalance, and a culture that frowns on both casual sex and homosexuality. Perhaps you've heard of it? Afghanistan.
Then do you have any alternate solutions? I highly doubt that all those men will be satisfied with sexbots, no matter how realistic the Japanese will have made them by then.
My presuppositions were purely based on the Chinese government's history of human rights violations. Given that the government is dominated by engineers, it's actually not that surprising that they focus on the ends rather than the means. I did not intend to inject any vitriol; I was simply giving some probable solutions based on an objective assessment of the situation.
My presuppositions were purely based on the Chinese government's history of human rights violations. Given that the government is dominated by engineers, it's actually not that surprising that they focus on the ends rather than the means. I did not intend to inject any vitriol; I was simply giving some probable solutions based on an objective assessment of the situation.
Mass homosexuality would be another imaginable possibility...
>I highly doubt that all those men will be satisfied with sexbots, no matter how realistic the Japanese will have made them by then.
It doesn't matter if they're satisfied or not, so long as they don't become criminal or violent. Porn and video games seem to be pretty good at distracting sexless men from more destructive pursuits, let alone sexbots.
Don't get me wrong, the gender imbalance is going to make life pretty awful for Chinese men, but I think the vast majority of those men will suffer quietly. The effect on the culture is going to be more subtle than what some people are envisioning.
It doesn't matter if they're satisfied or not, so long as they don't become criminal or violent. Porn and video games seem to be pretty good at distracting sexless men from more destructive pursuits, let alone sexbots.
Don't get me wrong, the gender imbalance is going to make life pretty awful for Chinese men, but I think the vast majority of those men will suffer quietly. The effect on the culture is going to be more subtle than what some people are envisioning.
> It doesn't matter if they're satisfied or not, so long as they don't become criminal or violent. Porn and video games seem to be pretty good at distracting sexless men from more destructive pursuits, let alone sexbots.
My point was that not restorting to violence depends upon their being satsified. Porn and video games work for a very small percentage of the population that is anti-social anyway. The desire to find a mate and reproduce is at the core of human psychology. For most men, a porn, video games, or even a sexbot won't be enough.
> I think the vast majority of those men will suffer quietly. The effect on the culture is going to be more subtle than what some people are envisioning.
Like it says here[0], the number of surplus men will be 32 million. So what if 90% of the men stay quiet? 3 million pissed off men is enough to make all hell break loose.
0: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/world/asia/11china.html
My point was that not restorting to violence depends upon their being satsified. Porn and video games work for a very small percentage of the population that is anti-social anyway. The desire to find a mate and reproduce is at the core of human psychology. For most men, a porn, video games, or even a sexbot won't be enough.
> I think the vast majority of those men will suffer quietly. The effect on the culture is going to be more subtle than what some people are envisioning.
Like it says here[0], the number of surplus men will be 32 million. So what if 90% of the men stay quiet? 3 million pissed off men is enough to make all hell break loose.
0: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/world/asia/11china.html
Well for one thing, you shouldn't look at it as an issue of "32 million surplus men." The hurt is going to be distributed more broadly throughout the entire male population. It's not like things like serial monogamy don't exist in China. What will happen is that relationships will simply be fewer and more far between for the average man than the average woman.
Interestingly, this is actually already the case in Western countries; in the US, there are roughly 55 single men for every 45 single women[0]. This is, of course, due to the younger average marital age of women than men.
Naturally, there's a lot more slack in the system as regards non-marital relationships than marital relationships; in the latter case the gender imbalance will indeed be a fundamental difference between China and other countries. But by the time the dating market shifts conclusively towards marriage, a lot of men will have aged out of the key crime demographic (ie, males aged 15-30, who commit such a hugely disproportionate number of crimes that overall crime rates are mostly a reflection of trends within this group).
I do expect that there will be a little more crime, as well as all kinds of other unpleasant effects that we can't even predict, but it won't be in anything resembling a linear fashion, and a lot will depend on other factors.
>Porn and video games work for a very small percentage of the population that is anti-social anyway.
What do you mean "work?" I'm not saying they can substitute for a real relationship. The relevant comparison isn't porn and video games vs. a living, breathing woman, it's porn and video games vs. jail time. And even if their existence doesn't make crime any less attractive, I think they'll still have an enervating effect that will make at-risk men less of a danger to others.
0: http://www.halfsigma.com/2008/04/unmarried-mal-1.html (look at the bottom row in the table)
Interestingly, this is actually already the case in Western countries; in the US, there are roughly 55 single men for every 45 single women[0]. This is, of course, due to the younger average marital age of women than men.
Naturally, there's a lot more slack in the system as regards non-marital relationships than marital relationships; in the latter case the gender imbalance will indeed be a fundamental difference between China and other countries. But by the time the dating market shifts conclusively towards marriage, a lot of men will have aged out of the key crime demographic (ie, males aged 15-30, who commit such a hugely disproportionate number of crimes that overall crime rates are mostly a reflection of trends within this group).
I do expect that there will be a little more crime, as well as all kinds of other unpleasant effects that we can't even predict, but it won't be in anything resembling a linear fashion, and a lot will depend on other factors.
>Porn and video games work for a very small percentage of the population that is anti-social anyway.
What do you mean "work?" I'm not saying they can substitute for a real relationship. The relevant comparison isn't porn and video games vs. a living, breathing woman, it's porn and video games vs. jail time. And even if their existence doesn't make crime any less attractive, I think they'll still have an enervating effect that will make at-risk men less of a danger to others.
0: http://www.halfsigma.com/2008/04/unmarried-mal-1.html (look at the bottom row in the table)
They could promote polyandry.
Did you just claim that engineers are usually irresponsible by saying that "engineers [tend to focus on] the ends rather than the means"?
Then do you have any alternate solutions? I highly doubt that all those men will be satisfied with sexbots, no matter how realistic the Japanese will have made them by then.
Polyandry seems like an idea that has potential. I'll leave the implementation details to the experts though.
Polyandry seems like an idea that has potential. I'll leave the implementation details to the experts though.
No need for domestic human rights violations to trim an excess of zealous males; just launch infantry-heavy wars.
Well, that would once again fall foul of their non-intereference foreign policy. If they're going to start interfering with other countries, it'd be cheaper/easier to just import the women. And the government could keep its hands clean a lot easier than with the war option.
I wouldn't be surprised if they easily solved problem #2 by paying poor people to have more kids
They wouldn't have to pay them, all they have to do is take away the one-child policy.
They wouldn't have to pay them, all they have to do is take away the one-child policy.
Not really. The bulk of China's decline in birth rates can be ascribed to the same demographic cycle that all developed countries go through rather than to the one child policy. In fact the policy itself only affects a certain percentage of Chinese families in the first place.
Also, paying people to have kids hasn't done much when other countries have tried it, and I doubt China's luck will be any better.
Also, paying people to have kids hasn't done much when other countries have tried it, and I doubt China's luck will be any better.
It really shouldn't be surprising that after a few decades of one-child policy you're going to wind up with far more old people than young people. If they didn't see this one coming then I'd be very surprised.
Most Western countries are facing a similar problem with aging populations, though on a lesser scale demographically. On the other hand, the Chinese government is much happier to leave folks to fend for themselves, while Western governments run into problems as the old folks demand ever-increasing spending on pensions and health care.
Most Western countries are facing a similar problem with aging populations, though on a lesser scale demographically. On the other hand, the Chinese government is much happier to leave folks to fend for themselves, while Western governments run into problems as the old folks demand ever-increasing spending on pensions and health care.
I've often wondering what would happen to populations if/when gerontology researchers like Aubrey de Grey do find a way to delay death from old age or even stop it completely.
Would a replacement rate of 2 just result in an ever increasing population or would other forms of death step in to limit populations? How much bigger could we expect populations to get if we had a replacement rate of 2 and an average life span of 1000 years?
I only ask because it seems China is going to be an interesting showcase of the pros and cons of population control.
Would a replacement rate of 2 just result in an ever increasing population or would other forms of death step in to limit populations? How much bigger could we expect populations to get if we had a replacement rate of 2 and an average life span of 1000 years?
I only ask because it seems China is going to be an interesting showcase of the pros and cons of population control.
It would result in increased population growth not just because of decreased mortality, but because of increased fertility due to the timer on the biological clock becoming less than an issue, Lots of women don't get around to having as many children as they like, especially in this era, when many people are still receiving their education and then trapped under a mortgage and student loan payments during their fertile years.
Once life expectancy is beyond child-bearing age, further increases don't affect the replacement rate.
Forced contraceptives and licenses required for bearing children, probably.
The gender imbalance is a real problem. Historically cultures that have an overabundance of males end up at war. I really would hate to be a typical male in that culture right now. But it's good that their birthrate is decreasing.
Interesting when you compare the argument made in the ranking article right now (http://www.spacex.com/updates.php) to the one made here in the Economist. China is at a crossroads it would seem. Further, the potential for China to have an even greater healthcare-cost problem than the US seems pretty obvious now, no?
I suddenly realized by accident that Chinese children do not have brothers and sisters. I mean just imagine a whole country... hundreds of millions of children... not one has a brother or a sister. Imagine a sixth of a population of the planet shudder when it hears words like "brotherly affection". Life must be so different there.
It's called Little Emperor Syndrome[0]. The kids are spoiled rotten, but they also have immense pressure to succeed academically.
0: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Little_Empero...
0: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Little_Empero...
And without brothers or sisters, children won't have uncles or aunts. Family trees will be tall and narrow, not bushy.
Most developed countries are already producing children at less than replacement population rate. They will face the same situation in a couple generations.
Most developed countries are already producing children at less than replacement population rate. They will face the same situation in a couple generations.
That 'not one has a brother or sister' isn't completely true. In many cases, especially in rural areas, there are families with two children, the older of which is a girl.
Health advances may negate some of the problem, if a 60 year old in the future is as healthy and as active as a 30 year old now no reason why they can't still be making great contributions to the workforce. In China this may be harder given how much of the work force is engaged in manual labor type positions.
I wouldn't be surprised if they easily solved problem #2 by paying poor people to have more kids (though there will still be a period of labor shortage, during which they'll probably bring in migrant workers that they'll unceremoniously boot out when they're no longer needed), but the solution to #1 will be very interesting to observe.
There are few things that stir as much civil unrest as not being able to find a woman to marry. They will have to either (a) subsidize the import of women from Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, North Korea, Mongolia and other poor neighbors, or (b) kill the surplus men. Given the modern Chinese government's penchant for a foreign policy of non-interference, (b) seems like the most likely option. But even China's economic hegemony at the time may not be enough to suppress the inevitable cries of outrage from abroad (and perhaps even at home) at the mass murder of millions of young men.