NBA suspends season over the coronavirus after player tests positive(axios.com)
axios.com
NBA suspends season over the coronavirus after player tests positive
https://www.axios.com/nba-suspends-basketball-season-coronavirus-5106988a-2fed-48d9-9729-ebe58824f1f4.html
14 comments
Between this and Tom Hanks, it may feel a lot more real to a lot of people tomorrow.
I was thinking the same thing. Even though I'd been following this since January and have already been taking it very seriously, Hanks, NBA, and Europe travel ban suddenly make it seem like there's a loud knock at the door.
Tom Hanks is what gets you, not the U.S. suspending all travel from Europe for 30 days?
I don't get people.
I don't get people.
The U.S. did not suspend all travel from Europe. The WH issues clarifications and corrections shortly after the speech.
First, it's not all of Europe -- 26 of 44 countries in Europe affected. Second, it doesn't include cargo (the president misspoke). Third, it doesn't restrict Americans traveling. Those affected are foreign nationals who have been those 26 countries in the last 14 days.
I agree this is still a bigger deal than Tom Hanks. However, for 99.99% Americans it's the first person they "know" who has coronavirus. So obviously people will see that and it will feel more real to them than a short-term ban on certain foreign nationals who were in 26 countries in the last two weeks.
The restrictions start for foreign nationals who aren't up in the air by Friday night, midnight Eastern time.
First, it's not all of Europe -- 26 of 44 countries in Europe affected. Second, it doesn't include cargo (the president misspoke). Third, it doesn't restrict Americans traveling. Those affected are foreign nationals who have been those 26 countries in the last 14 days.
I agree this is still a bigger deal than Tom Hanks. However, for 99.99% Americans it's the first person they "know" who has coronavirus. So obviously people will see that and it will feel more real to them than a short-term ban on certain foreign nationals who were in 26 countries in the last two weeks.
The restrictions start for foreign nationals who aren't up in the air by Friday night, midnight Eastern time.
Celebrity worship in America is extremely powerful. Don't ever underestimate how much it's central to American culture.
In this case it actually seems kind of rational.
It's really hard to process all the information that's available about what's going on; it's changing constantly, there's no consensus on a lot of stuff, the numbers and curves are highly unnatural to think about even if they didn't have massive uncertainty in their variables, and on and on.
As an example, instead let's talk about the lottery. If I hear that a movie star won the lottery, that's pretty surprising. I didn't expect to ever even know the name of someone that wins the lottery. The odds are really, really long and I don't know the names of enough people. And oh, an NBA player won the lottery today too? OK, well maybe this lottery doesn't work the way I was thinking.
It's really hard to process all the information that's available about what's going on; it's changing constantly, there's no consensus on a lot of stuff, the numbers and curves are highly unnatural to think about even if they didn't have massive uncertainty in their variables, and on and on.
As an example, instead let's talk about the lottery. If I hear that a movie star won the lottery, that's pretty surprising. I didn't expect to ever even know the name of someone that wins the lottery. The odds are really, really long and I don't know the names of enough people. And oh, an NBA player won the lottery today too? OK, well maybe this lottery doesn't work the way I was thinking.
Hopefully we can still watch the rest of the XFL season.
They could trying going spectatorless like the NCAA is doing for basketball. The difficulty will be that tv rights are a huge moneymaker for the NCAA with ticket sales being some extra gravy on the top. The XFL gave away the tv rights for free to promote the new league. While they have planned to lose money for several years, ticket sales and in game concessions was to help offset the expense. Don't know how much this will increase their burn rate but it certainly won't help.
Indeed. It would probably be socially responsible to cancel their season too, but I'm really enjoying their games (at least the ones that air on free TV).
Here's hoping the NBA, and whatever leagues might be affected, are able to reschedule their games once this nasty bug finally dies out.
Here's hoping the NBA, and whatever leagues might be affected, are able to reschedule their games once this nasty bug finally dies out.
I’m planning on watching the F1 Australian GP this weekend (on tv, not in Australia). So far China is the only race on the calendar that they’ve “rescheduled”. There was news yesterday that 3 F1 team members (not drivers) were in isolation pending test results. But they say everything is going ahead.
After running the 1st race in Qatar with only the moto 2 & moto 3 classes, MotoGP has rescheduled the next 3 races for later dates in the season. That's a lot of money deferred indefinitely.
Edit:
Closer to home(mine), I was sent away at the doors of a minor league hockey game in the midwest tonight. Only team, staff & media personnel were allowed in the doors for the game that was still being played.
Edit:
Closer to home(mine), I was sent away at the doors of a minor league hockey game in the midwest tonight. Only team, staff & media personnel were allowed in the doors for the game that was still being played.
One big difference between F1 and the NBA is that in the NBA, players are routinely within 2m of each other. If that happens to F1 drivers during the race, they have problems other than coronavirus to be concerned about.
You are forgetting about the pitlane and the motorhomes of the teams
An F1 driver will spend 4-5 hours on track during a race weekend. The rest of the time is spent in hotels, with the press, with fans and in the track facilities/garage. I’ve been around a few F1 tracks on race days, and they are incredibly packed full of people. The drivers don’t need to worry about catching a virus on track, it’s everywhere else that’s the problem.
But the thing that makes F1 actually somewhat unique in terms of Coronavirus risk, is that it’s supposed to take place across 22 countries (down to 21 now that China’s been cancelled - or “postponed”). Including a number of countries that have high infection rates, like Italy, Singapore and Japan. An F1 team member could theoretically be infected in one country, go to a race in another country, leave and arrive in a 3rd country before they even show symptoms.
So far what the FIA has done is cancel China, prohibit driver > fan interaction at events, limit press interaction, and said that some races will be run without live audiences. They’ve also said that if a team can’t race because of the virus, they won’t hold an official GP, but they kinda implied they’d still hold a race.
I’m a big fan of F1, so I’m happy to see the races. But it seems like a disaster waiting to happen. The FIA also have a terrible history of not cancelling events when they really should be cancelled. Last year when Typhoon Hagibis was forecast to arrive onshore in Japan on the Saturday of the Japanese GP weekend, the FIAs plan was “we think Typhoon Hagibis will be gone by Sunday, so we’ll just run qualifying on Sunday morning”. It did clear up by then, but really just by luck. In 2005 the circuit for the US GP had a corner that was dangerous to take at speed for any car that was using Michelin tires, because they may catastrophically fail. This caused two major crashes during practice. The FIA refused to change the track, refused to cancel the race, and refused to allow the teams to withdraw. The result was that the (7/10) Michelin teams drove one formation lap, and then had all 14 of their drivers retire. In short, they can’t really be trusted to make defensible decisions about cancelling events.
But the thing that makes F1 actually somewhat unique in terms of Coronavirus risk, is that it’s supposed to take place across 22 countries (down to 21 now that China’s been cancelled - or “postponed”). Including a number of countries that have high infection rates, like Italy, Singapore and Japan. An F1 team member could theoretically be infected in one country, go to a race in another country, leave and arrive in a 3rd country before they even show symptoms.
So far what the FIA has done is cancel China, prohibit driver > fan interaction at events, limit press interaction, and said that some races will be run without live audiences. They’ve also said that if a team can’t race because of the virus, they won’t hold an official GP, but they kinda implied they’d still hold a race.
I’m a big fan of F1, so I’m happy to see the races. But it seems like a disaster waiting to happen. The FIA also have a terrible history of not cancelling events when they really should be cancelled. Last year when Typhoon Hagibis was forecast to arrive onshore in Japan on the Saturday of the Japanese GP weekend, the FIAs plan was “we think Typhoon Hagibis will be gone by Sunday, so we’ll just run qualifying on Sunday morning”. It did clear up by then, but really just by luck. In 2005 the circuit for the US GP had a corner that was dangerous to take at speed for any car that was using Michelin tires, because they may catastrophically fail. This caused two major crashes during practice. The FIA refused to change the track, refused to cancel the race, and refused to allow the teams to withdraw. The result was that the (7/10) Michelin teams drove one formation lap, and then had all 14 of their drivers retire. In short, they can’t really be trusted to make defensible decisions about cancelling events.
I think maintaining 6 feet of separation is actually possible at a lot of XFL games
I've never really been into sports, but this year I've become an XFL fan. I hope the league manages through this okay.
I hope so too. The season exceeded my expectations and it’d be sad if this black swan event is what kills any chance of summer football for another two decades.
Here I was thinking that the three of you were being super sarcastic. Just Googled it and found out there's a new XFL...
Pretty crazy. They got away from the WWE model and instead are using it as a testbed for new rules. It is actually very exciting to watch.
what does the 'WWE model" mean when referring to football?
genuinely curious. I'm not into sports.
genuinely curious. I'm not into sports.
WWE = Fake Wrestling as Entertainment. Lots of drama, lots of chugging beers, throwing people tables, etc. I'm known to watch a Smackdown once in awhile for a good laugh.
The original XFL had some different rules around certain types of hits, and it also emphasized the players' personas more by letting them choose the names on their jerseys, trash talk, take their helmet off for celebrations, etc. It was and is still run by the same people behind WWE.
Now I take it they're moving in a different direction. Is there generally more or less concern for player safety in the XFL now, compared to the NFL?
Now I take it they're moving in a different direction. Is there generally more or less concern for player safety in the XFL now, compared to the NFL?
I don’t know if I would say there’s more concern, but there are some rule changes that make some parts of the game safer, such as the kickoff rules.
Yeah I'll be really bummed if I can't watch the Guardians take home the inaugural championship.
If the XFL does play through, the pandemic might be great for them, but I don't see that happening.
If the XFL does play through, the pandemic might be great for them, but I don't see that happening.
I've actually enjoyed watching the XFL so far. Great rule changes
Wait, is this the same XFL from back in the day, with all the trash talking like wrestling?
Less gross stuff like sending cameras into the cheerleader locker room. More of the cool stuff like players climbing up into the stands and high fiving fans after a TD
XFL definitely has more of the arena football vibe.
Same founder/owner (Vince McMahon) but different league with different teams. No wrestling gimmicks and no cheerleaders this time around.
Can't help but wonder if the new XFL would be better off if they had been able to ditch the tainted name. Even many people who don't follow football closely have heard of the old XFL and only seem to have the worst memories of it. The new league doesn't deserve all that baggage - most of which isn't even related to the actual on-field football.
Here's a good video about the disastrous old league, if you need your memory jogged: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVj6I_5gCR8
Here's a good video about the disastrous old league, if you need your memory jogged: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVj6I_5gCR8
I have (had?) tickets for a game on Saturday. It's not happening any more. I don't know if that's because of the WA state ban on any gathering of 250 people or more or because of another reason but I'm somewhat sad.
Yes, the game takes place at Century Link stadium, which is in King County. It's affected by the ban.
The game will still be played, but no fans will be admitted to the stadium. The game will still be aired on TV.
Sorry for your cancelled tickets! What a bummer for timing...
The game will still be played, but no fans will be admitted to the stadium. The game will still be aired on TV.
Sorry for your cancelled tickets! What a bummer for timing...
The financial hit from this and other event closures, travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions, and lost wages is going to be massive.
Asset prices and employment reports do not in any way reflect what's in store.
Asset prices and employment reports do not in any way reflect what's in store.
Asset prices are based on forward looking projections of the business, not on current revenues, or even next quarter's revenues. This is why S&P 500 companies trade at an average valuation of 15X their current-year earnings. If anything, they're way oversold already.
Nothing's fundamentally or structurally changed in the US economy. There were no bad mortgages. We hit the brakes for a bit, but before you know it we'll be back up on our feet and working our asses off, and if we're lucky, we'll get some mandatory paid sick days added to employment law out of it.
[edit] well actually, something has fundamentally changed: the cost of borrowing got somehow even lower meaning an eventual recovery may be turbocharged. The Fed is very unlikely to raise rates as we move past this.
Nothing's fundamentally or structurally changed in the US economy. There were no bad mortgages. We hit the brakes for a bit, but before you know it we'll be back up on our feet and working our asses off, and if we're lucky, we'll get some mandatory paid sick days added to employment law out of it.
[edit] well actually, something has fundamentally changed: the cost of borrowing got somehow even lower meaning an eventual recovery may be turbocharged. The Fed is very unlikely to raise rates as we move past this.
Well right now the trailing 12 month PE average for S&P is 20. So still above historical norm after this 20% drop. I wouldn't say things are oversold, rather everything was way overvalued.
And people are overlooking the fact this is just the herald wave, and probability of a catastrophic 2nd wave this fall/winter is pretty damn high. This isn't going away. This more than likely will move through the population a few times over the next few years until the vulnerable are "sifted through" so to speak. I want to believe in our scientific and technical capabilities but nobody should hold their breath for an effective vaccine in the next year or two. This has the potential to fundamentally and structurally change more than just the economy.
But I feel you..99x out of 100 you're spot on. Unfortunately, it's looking like the potential reality we might be facing is something most can't or don't want to comprehend. It at least deserves real consideration and thought.. we'll get through it and move on, but I don't think people grasp or want to believe what might be to come.
And people are overlooking the fact this is just the herald wave, and probability of a catastrophic 2nd wave this fall/winter is pretty damn high. This isn't going away. This more than likely will move through the population a few times over the next few years until the vulnerable are "sifted through" so to speak. I want to believe in our scientific and technical capabilities but nobody should hold their breath for an effective vaccine in the next year or two. This has the potential to fundamentally and structurally change more than just the economy.
But I feel you..99x out of 100 you're spot on. Unfortunately, it's looking like the potential reality we might be facing is something most can't or don't want to comprehend. It at least deserves real consideration and thought.. we'll get through it and move on, but I don't think people grasp or want to believe what might be to come.
Multiple vaccine candidates are already in clinical trials. It will take 12-18 months, but it seems like a certainty.
fwiw I doubt we'll see a vaccine anytime in the next years.
no doubt China tests very aggressively and trials the drugs on their prison population. They have a head-start because no human rights. (And now they also have more reasons to justify these crimes).
I wouldn't want to know how many were disappeared into body bags while they were still breathing just to keep reported numbers down.
no doubt China tests very aggressively and trials the drugs on their prison population. They have a head-start because no human rights. (And now they also have more reasons to justify these crimes).
I wouldn't want to know how many were disappeared into body bags while they were still breathing just to keep reported numbers down.
>>"I wouldn't want to know how many were disappeared into body bags while they were still breathing just to keep reported numbers down."
So, you don't want to know, but still you can't avoid tell us.
Do you have any information about this kind of thing going on, or you just dream about it last night?
So, you don't want to know, but still you can't avoid tell us.
Do you have any information about this kind of thing going on, or you just dream about it last night?
For a forum of ostensibly intelligent people, it's amusing to see the rise in anti-china sentiment brought about by the coronavirus.
Sure, China has a poor human rights record in many regards. But objectively, their handling of the coronavirus has been phenomenal, especially when one considers its hugely dense population.
And regarding the fake video supposedly showing a live person being body bagged: even Facebook "verified" the video as fake, and you know that.
China's done many things poorly in recent history, but containment of the coronavirus isn't one of them. Resorting to unsubstantiated xenophobia in times like this really says more about you as a person than anything else.
Sure, China has a poor human rights record in many regards. But objectively, their handling of the coronavirus has been phenomenal, especially when one considers its hugely dense population.
And regarding the fake video supposedly showing a live person being body bagged: even Facebook "verified" the video as fake, and you know that.
China's done many things poorly in recent history, but containment of the coronavirus isn't one of them. Resorting to unsubstantiated xenophobia in times like this really says more about you as a person than anything else.
> China's done many things poorly in recent history, but containment of the coronavirus isn't one of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%E6%9D%8E%E6%96%87%E4%BA%...
> Illegal activities (time, location participants and numbers, problems and outcomes):
> Posting untrue statement "7 confirmed SARS cases at Wuhan Hua'nan Fruit and Seafood Market" on the WeChat Group "Wuhan University Clinical Class of 2004" on Dec 30, 2019.
> [We are] now filing an official warning and admonitions to you on the illegal issue of posting untrue statements on the Internet according to the law. Your behavior severely disrupts social order. Your behavior has exceeded the scope permitted by the law and violates the relevant provisions of the Public Security Administration Punishment Law of the People's Republic of China, which is an illegal act!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%E6%9D%8E%E6%96%87%E4%BA%...
> Illegal activities (time, location participants and numbers, problems and outcomes):
> Posting untrue statement "7 confirmed SARS cases at Wuhan Hua'nan Fruit and Seafood Market" on the WeChat Group "Wuhan University Clinical Class of 2004" on Dec 30, 2019.
> [We are] now filing an official warning and admonitions to you on the illegal issue of posting untrue statements on the Internet according to the law. Your behavior severely disrupts social order. Your behavior has exceeded the scope permitted by the law and violates the relevant provisions of the Public Security Administration Punishment Law of the People's Republic of China, which is an illegal act!
> Resorting to unsubstantiated xenophobia in times like this really says more about you as a person than anything else.
Give it a rest.
Hospitals in Asia generally demand payment before checkout, so I wouldn't want to find myself a semi-conscious plague patient with no cash left.
What do I mean by demand? They post a guard outside your door until somebody pays the bill in full. God help you if you say you can't pay, especially if there's a lineup of new patients. You actually could get a bag over your head.
If you want to read more about how hospitals work in China, google "big sickness". There's some socialized medicine, but cancer and organ transplant bills are similar to what an uninsured US citizen would face - sign over the house.
Give it a rest.
Hospitals in Asia generally demand payment before checkout, so I wouldn't want to find myself a semi-conscious plague patient with no cash left.
What do I mean by demand? They post a guard outside your door until somebody pays the bill in full. God help you if you say you can't pay, especially if there's a lineup of new patients. You actually could get a bag over your head.
If you want to read more about how hospitals work in China, google "big sickness". There's some socialized medicine, but cancer and organ transplant bills are similar to what an uninsured US citizen would face - sign over the house.
> Hospitals in Asia generally demand payment before checkout, so I wouldn't want to find myself a semi-conscious plague patient with no cash left.
America would like a word with you. One of the biggest real risks to spread in America is that 30 million Americans have no health insurance, and can't afford a day off work.
> What do I mean by demand? They post a guard outside your door until somebody pays the bill in full. God help you if you say you can't pay, especially if there's a lineup of new patients. You actually could get a bag over your head.
Hey... just like America!
America would like a word with you. One of the biggest real risks to spread in America is that 30 million Americans have no health insurance, and can't afford a day off work.
> What do I mean by demand? They post a guard outside your door until somebody pays the bill in full. God help you if you say you can't pay, especially if there's a lineup of new patients. You actually could get a bag over your head.
Hey... just like America!
not to worry my xenophobia is limited to the CCP regime not against the Chinese people. I have a record of criticizing the CCP, the GOP, the AfD, National Rally, and every other political terrorist system out there ... and I was like this long before Covid19 became a topic.
You should find some Uyghur friends and see how this white-washing goes down with them.
You should find some Uyghur friends and see how this white-washing goes down with them.
This is a global recession, spending is drying up. You may or may not have seen the dot com bust, but this to me looks like that except across the globe. Many companies will die because they rely on cash flow and that will dry up. Restaurants, and entertainment venues will be dead until May 2021, unless we find a vaccine that treats this. As more and more celebrities get infected and possibly die it will hit the psyche a lot more than the financial crisis ever did.
It really is different this time, and it frightens me, not the virus itself but the economic ramifications.
The best case scenario is that summer stops the virus from spreading, panic lessens, and then a treatment is found before September that is effective and quick. Then a vaccine comes out next March 2021 and everyone is happy again.
It really is different this time, and it frightens me, not the virus itself but the economic ramifications.
The best case scenario is that summer stops the virus from spreading, panic lessens, and then a treatment is found before September that is effective and quick. Then a vaccine comes out next March 2021 and everyone is happy again.
You're right that it's different, but this is nothing like the dot com bust. People could still do other work when that happened. Also note that equity busts are quite different from credit busts.
This really is a massive bomb under the economy. Credit is stretched by years of low rates and now a lot of things have to stop.
Other commentators hint at postponed spending, which would be good. But many things in the economy do not work that way. If you skip your holiday now, it's not coming back and the hotels and restaurants will not get that money later. Same with a number of other businesses.
This really is a massive bomb under the economy. Credit is stretched by years of low rates and now a lot of things have to stop.
Other commentators hint at postponed spending, which would be good. But many things in the economy do not work that way. If you skip your holiday now, it's not coming back and the hotels and restaurants will not get that money later. Same with a number of other businesses.
You don’t think someone who was forced to cancel their February vacation wouldn’t take an August vacation once the situation sorted itself out?
Some will, but many won't. There's a fair few frictions in that. Say you couldn't get a refund for whatever reason. Or your boss won't give you the time. Or whatever occasion you went for is passed.
It's not that I'm saying it's all lost, but you have to count on some share being lost.
It's not that I'm saying it's all lost, but you have to count on some share being lost.
This won't be sorted by August.
Cool, any data or is that just speculation? Either way I was asking a hypothetical question.
It’s more the other direction. What evidence do we have that this will be sorted by August?
There has been no evidence that Cov-2 is anywhere as heat sensitive as influenza. This isn’t “the flu”. It doesn’t have to conform to flu patterns.
Right now the only countries getting this under control are ones that have started social distancing early and left many measures in place.
There has been no evidence that Cov-2 is anywhere as heat sensitive as influenza. This isn’t “the flu”. It doesn’t have to conform to flu patterns.
Right now the only countries getting this under control are ones that have started social distancing early and left many measures in place.
> Restaurants, and entertainment venues will be dead until May 2021, unless we find a vaccine that treats this.
Just because people over 70 won't be going to them, doesn't mean the rest of us won't be. Besides, once I've had cornavirus - which could well be inevitable - I'll no longer be scared for it and will head back out. So will everybody else.
To be honest, the best way to avoid a severe economic impact is to accept you'll most likely get it, and rather than killing businesses by staying inside, just got on with your life, stay fit and healthy, and hope for the best. You're more likely to be killed driving your car, so carry on living!
Just because people over 70 won't be going to them, doesn't mean the rest of us won't be. Besides, once I've had cornavirus - which could well be inevitable - I'll no longer be scared for it and will head back out. So will everybody else.
To be honest, the best way to avoid a severe economic impact is to accept you'll most likely get it, and rather than killing businesses by staying inside, just got on with your life, stay fit and healthy, and hope for the best. You're more likely to be killed driving your car, so carry on living!
So in other words: "who cares, the virus only kills old people who were probably useless to the economy anyway, so business as usual."
I sure hope you don't have any elderly family members. Plenty of people in their 40s have died too
I sure hope you don't have any elderly family members. Plenty of people in their 40s have died too
Not what I said. Those most vulnerable should stay at home. No reason for the rest of us too of we are very low risk.
Old people in nursing homes don't get out much, and yet they're the ones that are dying. The fact is that the virus spreads because people don't always die from it, and so they go around spreading it to people who will. Most people probably won't know that they have it until they've spread it to 3 more people.
Your strategy will probably keep you alive, but the same is not guaranteed for many millions of people that are old or with immune system complications.
Your strategy will probably keep you alive, but the same is not guaranteed for many millions of people that are old or with immune system complications.
Well with an R0 of ~2 your speculation of at least 3 is definitely wrong.
The cure is worse than the disease.
ESPN is a little more reliable
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28887560/nba-suspends-se...
The NBA's Twitter account is now confirming they have suspended it for now:
https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1237917831506857989
https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1237917831506857989
All players need to be tested. Thankfully they are young and healthy so the risk is low personally. Think about how many players lick their hands before a free throw and then pass it around, the refs touch the ball for tip off, etc. Damn a pandemic really makes you aware about how many microbes are out there.
I'm a little bit sick of hearing stuff related to age. "oh but they are in their 30's they will be ok" etc.
It doesn't change the fact they are now carriers and are potentially going to infect a child, or an elderly, or someone with a compromised immune system.
It doesn't change the fact they are now carriers and are potentially going to infect a child, or an elderly, or someone with a compromised immune system.
Or infect others who in turn will infect children or elderly.
The death rate for everyone under 50 is 0.1%, or 1 in 1000.
The death rate for those over 80 is 12% or higher.
Now, if everyone shuts down their life and somehow society can survive for 3 weeks with nobody allowed to move anywhere, maybe this virus goes away.
But, I think the economic consequences of that will be a lot worse than just continuing on with normal life and making sure people over 80 and people with chronic diseases are cloistered away and cared for.
The death rate for those over 80 is 12% or higher.
Now, if everyone shuts down their life and somehow society can survive for 3 weeks with nobody allowed to move anywhere, maybe this virus goes away.
But, I think the economic consequences of that will be a lot worse than just continuing on with normal life and making sure people over 80 and people with chronic diseases are cloistered away and cared for.
It seems like you're really underestimating the severity of the situation
I implore you to read up on what the situation in Italy is like at this moment, and to look into why the Danish government just declared Denmark in lockdown mode.
Denmark went from 30 diagnosed cases to over 500 in 5 days. This is with an aggressive testing protocol that includes tracking, testing and quarantining every person each new case has been in contact with.
To think that the US with their limited and delayed testing is at anywhere below 20000 actual infections by now seems extremely optimistic
Everyone will get sick -at the same time-. That's a really really big deal
I implore you to read up on what the situation in Italy is like at this moment, and to look into why the Danish government just declared Denmark in lockdown mode.
Denmark went from 30 diagnosed cases to over 500 in 5 days. This is with an aggressive testing protocol that includes tracking, testing and quarantining every person each new case has been in contact with.
To think that the US with their limited and delayed testing is at anywhere below 20000 actual infections by now seems extremely optimistic
Everyone will get sick -at the same time-. That's a really really big deal
On a side note, I'm from Denmark and I'm reading the international news, the decree that the danish government made last night is being framed as "closing all schools". Which is massively underselling it.
Every government worker who's not in a critical role or healthcare is being sent home. Most bars will close for the next two weeks, all sports activities have been cancelled, all gyms are closing down. Everyone who can work from home is working from home. Any gathering of people is discouraged
"Closing schools". Why is the media trying to undersell this so hard?
Every government worker who's not in a critical role or healthcare is being sent home. Most bars will close for the next two weeks, all sports activities have been cancelled, all gyms are closing down. Everyone who can work from home is working from home. Any gathering of people is discouraged
"Closing schools". Why is the media trying to undersell this so hard?
Hundreds of thousands die from flu every year in a relatively compressed period.
Only people who need to be in hospitals are those who need intubation.
Everyone will get sick no matter what you try to do. So the government needs to spin up more intubation servers, not block IPs...
Only people who need to be in hospitals are those who need intubation.
Everyone will get sick no matter what you try to do. So the government needs to spin up more intubation servers, not block IPs...
The death numbers are only one component of the problem.
The other problem is the 10-15% ICU rate. That swamps healthcare systems. Italy's healthcare system has nearly collapsed in the north, from just 12,000 positive cases so far. They're having to let patients die, which is why their mortality rate is so extremely high. The Lombardy region has one of the better rated healthcare systems on the planet and it can't handle what's happening. Unconstrained, Italy's healthcare system nationwide would collapse rapidly as their cases ballooned into the many tens of thousands. I'm not picking on Italy here, merely using them as a clear example of how serious this is. Every country should be treating this like a severe, immediate threat to their healthcare system continuing to function.
The other problem is the 10-15% ICU rate. That swamps healthcare systems. Italy's healthcare system has nearly collapsed in the north, from just 12,000 positive cases so far. They're having to let patients die, which is why their mortality rate is so extremely high. The Lombardy region has one of the better rated healthcare systems on the planet and it can't handle what's happening. Unconstrained, Italy's healthcare system nationwide would collapse rapidly as their cases ballooned into the many tens of thousands. I'm not picking on Italy here, merely using them as a clear example of how serious this is. Every country should be treating this like a severe, immediate threat to their healthcare system continuing to function.
Do you honestly think that a country would close down the government if it was "just another flu"? Really?
The population has immunization to the flu, it doesn't spread that quickly. (It spreads quickly, but not -that- quickly)
The flu is deadly, but not as deadly as corona
We already HAVE the flu season going on, so this is on top of the flu
Everyone will get sick no matter what, but how many people are sick at the same time makes an insane difference.
Given what is happening right now in Italy, I can't believe anyone would still go "it's just the flu"
The population has immunization to the flu, it doesn't spread that quickly. (It spreads quickly, but not -that- quickly)
The flu is deadly, but not as deadly as corona
We already HAVE the flu season going on, so this is on top of the flu
Everyone will get sick no matter what, but how many people are sick at the same time makes an insane difference.
Given what is happening right now in Italy, I can't believe anyone would still go "it's just the flu"
Our "market-base" healthcare system is totally unfit for pandemic containment.
Oh you have the disease, and you're part of the legions of people that 1) don't have insurance or 2) have skyhigh catastrophic coverage insurance.
You're first question isn't "should I get treatment", it is:
WHO WILL PAY FOR MY QUARANTINE.
And people will avoid the billing-happy US healthcare system, and large percentages of people stay in circulation.
Oh you have the disease, and you're part of the legions of people that 1) don't have insurance or 2) have skyhigh catastrophic coverage insurance.
You're first question isn't "should I get treatment", it is:
WHO WILL PAY FOR MY QUARANTINE.
And people will avoid the billing-happy US healthcare system, and large percentages of people stay in circulation.
It's a virus, not a disease.
EDIT: Nope, fubar'd this; it's a disease. Thanks hexane360.
There is no medical treatment for most people; there is no cure to administer.
Stay hydrated, manage symptoms, rest, and monitor for worsening conditions is about all that can be done for the majority of people.
EDIT: Edited for structure.
EDIT: Nope, fubar'd this; it's a disease. Thanks hexane360.
There is no medical treatment for most people; there is no cure to administer.
Stay hydrated, manage symptoms, rest, and monitor for worsening conditions is about all that can be done for the majority of people.
EDIT: Edited for structure.
COVID-19 is a disease. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. You're not even right at being pedantic. Illnesses don't need to be treatable or curable to be called diseases.
I never said they need to be treatable nor curable to be called diseases.
What I am, is wrong about it not being a disease. All these are listed as diseases: SARS-COV, MERS-COV, and nCOV. Even, also, the common flu. I never thought of that as a disease before now, since it's a viral infection. Thank you for making me learn a little more tonight.
What I am, is wrong about it not being a disease. All these are listed as diseases: SARS-COV, MERS-COV, and nCOV. Even, also, the common flu. I never thought of that as a disease before now, since it's a viral infection. Thank you for making me learn a little more tonight.
Not sure where you're seeing those "listed", but those are the names of viruses which are associated with diseases.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_synd...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_synd...
From the WHO: https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus
"Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans."
The naming is actually a bit confusing to me, as the CDC has this to say[1]:
"On February 11, 2020 the World Health Organization announced an official name for the disease that is causing the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, first identified in Wuhan China. The new name of this disease is coronavirus disease 2019, abbreviated as COVID-19. In COVID-19, ‘CO’ stands for ‘corona,’ ‘VI’ for ‘virus,’ and ‘D’ for disease. Formerly, this disease was referred to as “2019 novel coronavirus” or “2019-nCoV”."
I'm not sure where the separation between virus and disease is or was, of if that even matters in the end.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
"Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans."
The naming is actually a bit confusing to me, as the CDC has this to say[1]:
"On February 11, 2020 the World Health Organization announced an official name for the disease that is causing the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, first identified in Wuhan China. The new name of this disease is coronavirus disease 2019, abbreviated as COVID-19. In COVID-19, ‘CO’ stands for ‘corona,’ ‘VI’ for ‘virus,’ and ‘D’ for disease. Formerly, this disease was referred to as “2019 novel coronavirus” or “2019-nCoV”."
I'm not sure where the separation between virus and disease is or was, of if that even matters in the end.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
Viruses are the physical thing which makes you sick. The disease is the sickness the virus (in this case) gives you. The problem is that nobody in the media* knows the difference or pays attention to it when reporting it.
Wikipedia calls diseases "medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs".
Wikipedia calls diseases "medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs".
Thank you for the insight. It's been an interesting night; never before had I thought of chicken pox or a cold as a disease, but that's what they're classified as.
In my worldview, up until tonight, my understanding of a disease was something that won't go away on it's own. Heart disease, Huntington's, etc.
I agree about the media. While I've seen COVID-19 everywhere; I didn't know anything about the nomenclature in this field and have only heard references to a virus, not a disease.
In my worldview, up until tonight, my understanding of a disease was something that won't go away on it's own. Heart disease, Huntington's, etc.
I agree about the media. While I've seen COVID-19 everywhere; I didn't know anything about the nomenclature in this field and have only heard references to a virus, not a disease.
And Rudy is positive afrer mic-touching stunt! Yeesh.
NBA gets people seated in front of their TV's. I worry that this suspension means would be viewers go outside more.
I wonder how risky just walking outside is if you don’t talk to or touch anything and you’re not in a crowded area. Certainly more than sealing yourself in a room but I wonder if walking past someone briskly with your hands in your pockets has a significant risk of transmission?
Yeah I was kinda hoping if so many people need to be home... maybe they could play.
Guess not.
Guess not.
I wonder if the NCAA will follow suit. I know they already said the games would be empty
The best thing we can do to stop the spread is things like this, unfortunately.
A player, Rudy Gobert, tested positive for Coronavirus today.
He recently did this, https://twitter.com/SomeonesAnIdiot/status/12379197037812940... claiming something along the lines of 'it's not a big deal'
He recently did this, https://twitter.com/SomeonesAnIdiot/status/12379197037812940... claiming something along the lines of 'it's not a big deal'
If he tested positive after participating in practice and being with the team, I wouldn’t be surprised if other Jazz players end up testing positive too.
Good thing the Jazz-Thunder game was called off because with all the physicality and contact during an NBA game it would have been so easy to spread the virus to other teams even if Gobert wasn’t in the game.
Good thing the Jazz-Thunder game was called off because with all the physicality and contact during an NBA game it would have been so easy to spread the virus to other teams even if Gobert wasn’t in the game.
https://twitter.com/JDFSports/status/1237913999074787328
His teammate Emmanuel Mudiay has also tested positive.
Edit:Unconfirmed source
His teammate Emmanuel Mudiay has also tested positive.
Edit:Unconfirmed source
No credible source for Mudiay
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28891354/donovan-mitchel...
His other teammate tests positive.
His other teammate tests positive.
So, I don’t believe in karma, but man that is something. I wonder if deep in his subconscious he knew he had the disease, and was acting rebellious.
It would be interesting if the disease caused the host to be inclined to spread it.
The guinea worm spreads via drinking egg-infested water. When the parasite becomes fully developed in the human body, it migrates to the skin where it causes blisters accompanied by burning pain. The pain induces the host to immerse the boil in water; immediately relieving the pain - and allowing the parasite to release its eggs for the next host to drink.
There's only a few studies on this I could find via some google & google scholar:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/darwins-subterranean...
https://evesdrift.com/2014/01/01/change-in-human-social-beha...
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=1349985915923183693...
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/darwins-subterranean...
https://evesdrift.com/2014/01/01/change-in-human-social-beha...
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=1349985915923183693...
Syphillis does that. Lowers the hosts inhibitions and increases their risk seeking behaviour.
There's a parasitic fungus that does this with insects. It takes over, compelling the host to move to a location where the fungus can reproduce.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vijGdWn5-h8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vijGdWn5-h8
This is also the plot hook for The Last of Us, a superbly-crafted game for the PS3/4.
And soon to be HBO show! [1]
[1] https://www.techradar.com/news/the-last-of-us-hbo-tv-show
[1] https://www.techradar.com/news/the-last-of-us-hbo-tv-show
Fantastic! Thanks for letting me know!
I'm assuming you mean beyond inducing the host to aerosolize infectious fluids via sneezing and coughing.
Here's a fun fact: Toxoplasma gondii causes rats to like cats (feces) instead of fearing them, making them prone to being eaten by cats - which is great for the parasite as it reproduces in cat's alimentary system. Incidentally, humans with Toxoplasmosis are over-represented in traffic accidents, which may suggests some of that recklessness effect carries over.
Here's a fun fact: Toxoplasma gondii causes rats to like cats (feces) instead of fearing them, making them prone to being eaten by cats - which is great for the parasite as it reproduces in cat's alimentary system. Incidentally, humans with Toxoplasmosis are over-represented in traffic accidents, which may suggests some of that recklessness effect carries over.
anonu(1)
Like rabies?
[deleted]
This was in the story "saviour of the plague years" in a 1995 Wired magazine futurist fiction compilation. They called the desire to run around and spread the disease the "Hong Kong Jog."
I think this kind of behavior does increase your risk of getting the disease, but I imagine there's a strong selection bias.
People that don't do this, won't have a viral moment when it's announced that they have the disease. People that do this kind of thing can have a viral moment when it's announced.
People that don't do this, won't have a viral moment when it's announced that they have the disease. People that do this kind of thing can have a viral moment when it's announced.
Or it's possible that's where he contracted it.
He is showing symptoms too quickly to have gotten it from that, but he certainly could have been spreading it.
I would be a little hesitant when making that claim. It would certainly be a shorter than usual incubation period, but I don't know how many sigmas away from the mean it would be.
Three days is considered the minimum to be symptomatic.
It's possible, of course -- maybe very high activity accelerated the timeline -- but he spends his days around hundreds of people, and then occasionally tens of thousands of people. Just walking out of the tunnel he is under the respiratory cloud of hundreds of people.
It seems deeply improbable that this event was the cause, not least because the timeline isn't among the probable set.
It's possible, of course -- maybe very high activity accelerated the timeline -- but he spends his days around hundreds of people, and then occasionally tens of thousands of people. Just walking out of the tunnel he is under the respiratory cloud of hundreds of people.
It seems deeply improbable that this event was the cause, not least because the timeline isn't among the probable set.
Oh, sure, I'm very happy to agree with the claim that it's very unlikely that he got the virus from this event. I wasn't trying to dispute that.
One of the Utah sports journos has said that their feeling at the time was that Gobert was saying he had no fear of contact with the journalists (forced to be 8'+ from him) rather than wasn't scared of dispersing the virus. Doesn't help much in hindsight and this incident may define him from here!
https://twitter.com/andyblarsen/status/1237960552938385408
https://twitter.com/andyblarsen/status/1237960552938385408
While that was a stupid thing to do and in poor taste. Rudy Gobert did not know he had covid-19 until tonight and the NBA cancelled the season within an hour or so.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B9nfSnMhqJF/?igshid=1n32u59f63bp...
https://www.instagram.com/p/B9nfSnMhqJF/?igshid=1n32u59f63bp...
It looks like the video's been removed?
Is it possible he could be sued over this if any of the reporters contract it?
Rest of world: This will overwhelm our health system.
USA: This will overwhelm our legal system.
USA: This will overwhelm our legal system.
Fascinating question...
There's this standard case for law students (here in Germany): A man wishes his wife was dead. He sends her out to the mailbox on rainy day, muttering "I hope you get hit by lightning" under his breath. She does get hit by lightning and dies. Murder?
There's this standard case for law students (here in Germany): A man wishes his wife was dead. He sends her out to the mailbox on rainy day, muttering "I hope you get hit by lightning" under his breath. She does get hit by lightning and dies. Murder?
[deleted]
force majeure
He didn’t know he had it and the team doctors didn’t check until earlier tonight. But it was in very poor taste.
I hope so.
Boy, I'm glad I did my big grocery store today and not tomorrow.
Same. Didn’t go crazy but got more of the less-perishables that I’m going to eat anyway. Maybe 90% of the rice was gone, ditto for cooking oil and other staples (mid-atlantic us south). Fresh vegetables and meats and everything else really seemed in normal stock for now.
I own a canner so can turn perishable stuff into long term stuff. Might just have to start doing it too.
[deleted]
jackschultz(2)
Given the incredible impact this has had and will continue to have. What will the likely consequences be for China given that it is my understanding that the source of the virus was Wuhan China?
I think China has already been dealing with the consequences of robust lockdowns that, while slowing the spread of coronavirus dramatically and admirably, also place substantial strain on the society and economy.
The same consequences that africa got for ebola or the middle east got for MERS. Nothing. It's not their fault. It's a virus. It happens.
People like you are so obvious. What do you think happened to the region that gave us HIV? Nothing because it's not their fault.
People like you are so obvious. What do you think happened to the region that gave us HIV? Nothing because it's not their fault.
Aren't SARS and COVID suspected to be the result of viruses jumping species in wet markets that sell wildlife?
If that is true, I'm not sure you can just say "it happens", as the wet market environments are man-made.
[1] Vox : "Why new diseases keep appearing in China" -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54
[2] Vox Explained: "The Next Pandemic" -- https://www.netflix.com/watch/81062202?trackId=13752289&tctx...
If that is true, I'm not sure you can just say "it happens", as the wet market environments are man-made.
[1] Vox : "Why new diseases keep appearing in China" -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54
[2] Vox Explained: "The Next Pandemic" -- https://www.netflix.com/watch/81062202?trackId=13752289&tctx...
Wait... what? No consequences. It wasn't a man-made virus!