How badly do most/all YCNews-ers suffer from confirmation bias?
2 comments
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias:
In January 2006, Drew Westen and a team from Emory University announced at the annual Society for Personality and Social Psychology conference in Palm Springs, California the results of a study[2] showing the brain activity for confirmation bias. Their results suggest the unconscious and emotion-driven nature of this form of bias.
The study was carried out during the pre-electoral period of the 2004 presidential election on 30 men, half who described themselves as strong Republicans and half as strong Democrats. During a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scan, the subjects were asked to assess contradictory statements by both George W. Bush and John Kerry. The scans showed that the part of the brain associated with reasoning, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was not involved when assessing the statements. Conversely, the most active regions of the brain were those involved in processing emotions (orbitofrontal cortex), conflict resolution (anterior cingulate cortex) and making judgment about moral accountability (posterior cingulate cortex).[3]
Dr. Westen summarised the work:
"None of the circuits involved in conscious reasoning were particularly engaged. Essentially, it appears as if partisans twirl the cognitive kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want, and then they get massively reinforced for it, with the elimination of negative emotional states and activation of positive ones....
Everyone from executives and judges to scientists and politicians may reason to emotionally biased judgments when they have a vested interest in how to interpret 'the facts'."[4]
---end of wikipedia excerpt---
As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive.
In January 2006, Drew Westen and a team from Emory University announced at the annual Society for Personality and Social Psychology conference in Palm Springs, California the results of a study[2] showing the brain activity for confirmation bias. Their results suggest the unconscious and emotion-driven nature of this form of bias.
The study was carried out during the pre-electoral period of the 2004 presidential election on 30 men, half who described themselves as strong Republicans and half as strong Democrats. During a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scan, the subjects were asked to assess contradictory statements by both George W. Bush and John Kerry. The scans showed that the part of the brain associated with reasoning, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was not involved when assessing the statements. Conversely, the most active regions of the brain were those involved in processing emotions (orbitofrontal cortex), conflict resolution (anterior cingulate cortex) and making judgment about moral accountability (posterior cingulate cortex).[3]
Dr. Westen summarised the work:
"None of the circuits involved in conscious reasoning were particularly engaged. Essentially, it appears as if partisans twirl the cognitive kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want, and then they get massively reinforced for it, with the elimination of negative emotional states and activation of positive ones....
Everyone from executives and judges to scientists and politicians may reason to emotionally biased judgments when they have a vested interest in how to interpret 'the facts'."[4]
---end of wikipedia excerpt---
As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive.
This has to be the most elaborate gripe I've ever heard from someone whose stuff got ignored on a social news site. I don't remember any of your other submissions, but if they had as low a signal to noise ratio as this one, I can see why they might not have got many votes.
Basically this post = "Everyone here is so deluded that they ignore me!" and not even in your own words.
Basically this post = "Everyone here is so deluded that they ignore me!" and not even in your own words.
I'm just positing a hypothesis. Why so gratuitously ad hominem? At least gather some data first...
(But thanks for the interesting data point :-)
(But thanks for the interesting data point :-)
It's rather disingenuous to say "you all suffer from confirmation bias because you ignore my posts" and then claim ad hominem attacks when people point out that your posts are not that interesting. _You_ are the one who started the conversation focusing on you and your posts.
ed(1)
As nearly as I can tell, this kind of bias afflicts most/all of the folks who frequent YC News. To understand why I think this, review my previous submissions and the non-response each received. It seems that (aspiring) entrepreneurs who are pure tech (I'm a hybrid of comp sci & comedy writing) just don't want to believe that, going forward, their companies will probably have to market profitably through branded entertainment to be competitive.
I agree with the idea that here in this Web Startup World Echo Chamber, we're all probably suffering from a big helping of confirmation bias... but your comment at the end about this being reflected by your submissions being ignored is a total non-sequitur. How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc? Lack of interest in the videos you recorded doesn't necessarily indicate that the audience here suffers from confirmation bias. Maybe the community just isn't interested in your submissions.
I agree with the idea that here in this Web Startup World Echo Chamber, we're all probably suffering from a big helping of confirmation bias... but your comment at the end about this being reflected by your submissions being ignored is a total non-sequitur. How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc? Lack of interest in the videos you recorded doesn't necessarily indicate that the audience here suffers from confirmation bias. Maybe the community just isn't interested in your submissions.
How does branded entertainment relate to news.yc?
Well, as nearly as I can tell, many of the folks who frequent YC News are interested in understanding how to give rise to a successful startup, and two big pieces of that puzzle are marketing and generating profits...
Well, as nearly as I can tell, many of the folks who frequent YC News are interested in understanding how to give rise to a successful startup, and two big pieces of that puzzle are marketing and generating profits...
Indeed. Just imagine how much money Google would have made if they'd hired an MBA, bought some superbowl ads, and refused to launch their product until they knew exactly how to make it cash-flow positive!
Probably pretty badly. Like everybody else.
That said, your comments don't languish because they contradict some deeply held notions of the news.YC community. They languish because they're irrelevant and read like spam. Most people here know they have to market profitably, they just don't think anything you've proposed is the best approach to that.
That said, your comments don't languish because they contradict some deeply held notions of the news.YC community. They languish because they're irrelevant and read like spam. Most people here know they have to market profitably, they just don't think anything you've proposed is the best approach to that.
What have I submitted that is irrelevant to understanding how to maximize profits from branded entertainment?
Be specific.
Be specific.
Also, you should lose the style of response you used above. Way too ad hominem, especially given that you spent exactly no time acquainting yourself w/ the content linked to by my submissions.
Actually, I'm not sure you can call this "suffering." Having a healthy dose of confirmation bias can be the difference between trusting your instincts and giving in to naysayers(much of the world).
Opposite extreme of confirmation bias is going by research and the written laws. And we know very well the limits of research.
Obviously confirmation bias is no excuse to ignoring apparent problems and flaws. That is just denial--especially in later stages of a startup.
Opposite extreme of confirmation bias is going by research and the written laws. And we know very well the limits of research.
Obviously confirmation bias is no excuse to ignoring apparent problems and flaws. That is just denial--especially in later stages of a startup.
My takeaway from the Wikipedia excerpt is that being afflicted w/ confirmation bias equates to being in denial. Healthy denial seems oxymoronic, as denial precludes risk management...
In that case, I'll say that denial has some role behind almost every big entrepreneur's success or business deal.
Hmmmm...
As best I can recall, relevant (meta-analyses of) studies of entrepreneurship concluded that successful entrepreneurs are typically very mindful of risk. Amar Bhide's book The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses may be a good source for a survey of the aforesaid scholarship.
As best I can recall, relevant (meta-analyses of) studies of entrepreneurship concluded that successful entrepreneurs are typically very mindful of risk. Amar Bhide's book The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses may be a good source for a survey of the aforesaid scholarship.
Mindful but not necessarily dictated. In some ways the idea of "risk" itself is a form of denial, no?
Most startups fail, so anyone involved in a startup has to spend all of their waking time doing something that is probably not going to make them any money. If it's 2 AM and you haven't slept in a few days and the difference between working and not working is almost certainly $0, denial is a competitive advantage.
Also, I recall a BBC article a while back citing a study showing that ~half of all scientific studies turn out wrong because they failed to exclude variables. The study, below, needs to be supported by other studies in other circumstances (and maybe those exist -- I don't read psy journals).