Bob Lutz thinks Tesla is doomed(roadandtrack.com)
roadandtrack.com
Bob Lutz thinks Tesla is doomed
http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a26859/bob-lutz-tesla/
3 comments
# Gasoline is cheap
True, though in Europe prices are 200-300% higher[1]. Mostly because European countries tax gasoline heavily, because of it's negative environmental impact.
Probably not an issue for expensive vehicles (no-one buy them for fuel savings), but will be for cheaper models.
# Battery tech isn't special
I think this is a good point. I'd guess other auto-makers can do this fairly easily, as long as they do it at scale (and they are good at scale in other areas).
# Company stores doesn't work
As I've understood it they don't carry inventory in their stores, it's only a showroom -- even in countries where they are allowed to sell directly to consumers (all except the US). Cars still ordered, i.e. no inventory (except for test-drive).
# Model X won't sell
I guess it's a bit too early to tell, but it seems like they are mainly production-limited right now (which is a problem in it's own right!).
===
I think a major factor is being overlooked, which will determine both the fate of Tesla and other car-makers: software.
I'd guess 75% of innovation in cars during the next 10 years will be in software. The company that does this best will do really well. Tesla should be well-positioned.
[1] http://autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-europe.html#...
True, though in Europe prices are 200-300% higher[1]. Mostly because European countries tax gasoline heavily, because of it's negative environmental impact.
Probably not an issue for expensive vehicles (no-one buy them for fuel savings), but will be for cheaper models.
# Battery tech isn't special
I think this is a good point. I'd guess other auto-makers can do this fairly easily, as long as they do it at scale (and they are good at scale in other areas).
# Company stores doesn't work
As I've understood it they don't carry inventory in their stores, it's only a showroom -- even in countries where they are allowed to sell directly to consumers (all except the US). Cars still ordered, i.e. no inventory (except for test-drive).
# Model X won't sell
I guess it's a bit too early to tell, but it seems like they are mainly production-limited right now (which is a problem in it's own right!).
===
I think a major factor is being overlooked, which will determine both the fate of Tesla and other car-makers: software.
I'd guess 75% of innovation in cars during the next 10 years will be in software. The company that does this best will do really well. Tesla should be well-positioned.
[1] http://autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-europe.html#...
Re-posting my comment from the prior conversation:
Bob Lutz is the author. He's moonlighting as a talking head after being the consummate insider of the automotive industry in the United States, having worked for all of the Big 3 (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) as well as BMW [1]. This is pretty much like taking your advice on smoking cigarettes from R.J. Reynolds. [2]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Lutz_(businessman)
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._J._Reynolds